Non-myopic learning in differential information economies: the core

Summary. We study the process of learning in a differential information economy, with a continuum of states of nature that follow a Markov process. The economy extends over an infinite number of periods and we assume that the agents behave non-myopically, i.e., they discount the future. We adopt a new equilibrium concept, the non-myopic core. A realized agreement in each period generates information that changes the underlying structure in the economy. The results we obtain serve as an extension to the results in Koutsougeras and Yannelis (1999) in a setting where agents behave non-myopically. In particular, we examine the following two questions: 1) If we have a sequence of allocations that are in an approximate non-myopic core (we allow for bounded rationality), is it possible to find a subsequence that converges to a non-myopic core allocation in a limit full information economy? 2) Given a non-myopic core allocation in a limit full information economy can we find a sequence of approximate non-myopic core allocations that converges to that allocation? Received: May 25, 1999; revised version: August 9, 1999     

Tax-spending policies and economic growth: Theoretical predictions and evidence from the OECD

We present an endogenous growth model to study the growth effects of the composition of government expenditure and the associated tax burden. When we use data from a set of 23 OECD countries during 1970–2000, our econometric results support the predictions of the theory. The share of productive government expenditure is associated with higher growth, and this result is more robust when we use effective average tax rates and statutory tax rates as measures of the tax burden. With respect to the tax burden, different tax rates have different growth effects.     

Product customization

The advent of the Internet has revolutionized the way companies advertise, develop and distribute products. Firms can now customize their advertising messages and products to the particular characteristics and needs of customers. Customers themselves can create their own products. We investigate investments by firms in product-customization capabilities within a duopoly model of horizontal product differentiation. We find that (i) if brand name effects are not too strong, one firm emerges as a leader in product customization—firms make asymmetric investments in product-customization technologies in order to reduce price competition, (ii) if brand name effects are strong, both firms make extensive investments in product customization, and (iii) the possibility of product customization can raise industry profits if brand names are weak, but not when they are strong.     

Sequential Monte Carlo for fractional stochastic volatility models

In this paper, we consider a fractional stochastic volatility model, that is a model in which the volatility may exhibit a long-range dependent or a rough/antipersistent behaviour. We propose a dynamic sequential Monte Carlo methodology that is applicable to both long memory and antipersistent processes in order to estimate the volatility as well as the unknown parameters of the model. We establish a central limit theorem for the state and parameter filters and we study asymptotic properties (consistency and asymptotic normality) for the filter. We illustrate our results with a simulation study and we apply our method to estimate the volatility and the parameters of a long-range dependent model for S& P 500 data.     

Inserting GM Products into the Food Chain: The Market and Welfare Effects of Different Labeling and Regulatory Regimes

The purpose of this article is to examine the system-wide effects of the introduction of genetically modified (GM) products with and without labeling and to compare these two regimes to a third regime where GM products are not present either because they have not yet been developed or because they have been banned. For each regime, the decisions and welfare of consumers, producers, and life science companies are examined. The article explicitly incorporates the consumer response to the introduction of GM technology and considers different market structures of the life science sector.     

Appraisers and Valuation Bias: An Empirical Analysis

Using appraisals from a lender across the 2005–2006 period, we find that the association between appraisers’ valuation inflation patterns and work volume varies across states. Moreover, we find a considerable occupational exit for appraisers, and provide evidence that appraisers, as applicants, did not receive better loan pricing compared with the population of applicants. Overall, this article offers novel insights concerning the political economy of financial regulation through the lens of a specific profession.     

Modeling beef supply response and price volatility under CAP reforms: The case of Greece

This study examines the supply response of the Greek beef market and the possible effect of the European Union’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on the Greek beef sector during the period 1993–2005. A Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) process is used to estimate expected price, and price volatility, while several different symmetric, asymmetric and non-linear GARCH models are estimated. The empirical results show that price volatility and feed price are important risk factors in the supply response function, while the negative asymmetric price volatility that was detected implies that producers have a weak market position. Furthermore, the empirical findings confirm that the annual premium paid by the EU to beef producers had a positive impact on the production level and also, the change of the EU price support regime, after 2006, is having negative effects on beef production level in Greece.     

Market and Welfare Effects of Second-Generation, Consumer-Oriented GM Products

We examine the economic effects of the introduction of consumer-oriented genetically modified (GM) products into the food system by developing a model of heterogeneous consumers and producers that allows for vertical and horizontal differentiation between the products available to consumers. The model facilitates the estimation of consumer and producer surpluses in the product/utility and product/net returns spaces. Results show that the introduction of consumer-oriented GM products can change the relationship between GM and conventional and organic products from one of vertical to one of horizontal product differentiation and can enhance both economic welfare and the market acceptance and growth of agricultural biotechnology.     

The Peripheral Halo Effect: Do Academic Spinoffs Influence Universities' Research Income?

Extant literature has drawn attention to the ‘halo effect’ of the good reputation of a core organizational activity on the outcome of a peripheral activity. We contribute to the literature on organizational reputation by illustrating a halo effect in the opposite direction – from the periphery to the core. We show that developing a reputation for a peripheral activity (in our context, universities' social impact via spinoffs) may have positive spillovers for core organizational activities (in our context, university research), a phenomenon we term the ‘peripheral halo effect'. We also show that this effect is more prominent for high‐status than for low‐status organizations. Our research also contributes to the academic‐entrepreneurship literature by revealing that spinoff portfolios can generate income for universities not only directly via equity positions but also indirectly via reputational benefits.     

LARGE PORTFOLIO ASYMPTOTICS FOR LOSS FROM DEFAULT

We prove a law of large numbers for the loss from default and use it for approximating the distribution of the loss from default in large, potentially heterogeneous portfolios. The density of the limiting measure is shown to solve a nonlinear stochastic partial differential equation, and certain moments of the limiting measure are shown to satisfy an infinite system of stochastic differential equations. The solution to this system leads to the distribution of the limiting portfolio loss, which we propose as an approximation to the loss distribution for a large portfolio. Numerical tests illustrate the accuracy of the approximation, and highlight its computational advantages over a direct Monte Carlo simulation of the original stochastic system.