On the effect of high energy prices on investment

Empirical analyses of firm behaviour typically assume that there is a stable relationship between investment on the one hand and changes in the relative prices of inputs, output demand and other determinants on the other hand. However, because of the lumpy nature and irreversibility of investments and the presence of uncertainty about future economic developments, a specific percentage change in relative prices and output demand may not always lead to the same percentage change in capital stocks. That means that different regimes may exist in investment behaviour. We test whether such regimes exist using high-quality data on eight manufacturing industries in the Netherlands. Three different regimes can be identified that are characterized by differences in the relative input price levels and we find that if relative prices take on extreme values, the propensity to adjust the scale of production to changes in demand is very low.     

Ethics Matter: Moderating Leaders’ Power Use and Followers’ Citizenship Behaviors

Followers’ perceptions of their leaders’ ethics have the potential to impact the way they react to the influence of these leaders. The present study of 365 U.S. Air Force Academy Cadets examined how followers’ perceptions of their leaders’ ethics moderated the relationships found between the leaders’ use of power, as conceptualized by French and Raven (Studies in social power, 1959), and the followers’ contextual performance. Our results indicated that leaders’ use of expert, referent, and reward power was associated with higher levels of organizational citizenship behaviors (OCBs) among their followers when the followers perceived these leaders to be more ethical. Moreover, when followers perceived their leaders to be less ethical, these followers reported lower levels of OCBs when their leaders’ utilized referent power. Practical implications, limitations, and future research are also discussed.     

Robust bootstrap procedures for the chain-ladder method

Insurers are faced with the challenge of estimating the future reserves needed to handle historic and outstanding claims that are not fully settled. A well-known and widely used technique is the chain-ladder method, which is a deterministic algorithm. To include a stochastic component one may apply generalized linear models to the run-off triangles based on past claims data. Analytical expressions for the standard deviation of the resulting reserve estimates are typically difficult to derive. A popular alternative approach to obtain inference is to use the bootstrap technique. However, the standard procedures are very sensitive to the possible presence of outliers. These atypical observations, deviating from the pattern of the majority of the data, may both inflate or deflate traditional reserve estimates and corresponding inference such as their standard errors. Even when paired with a robust chain-ladder method, classical bootstrap inference may break down. Therefore, we discuss and implement several robust bootstrap procedures in the claims reserving framework and we investigate and compare their performance on both simulated and real data. We also illustrate their use for obtaining the distribution of one year risk measures.     

Efficient communication in the electronic mail game

The literature on the electronic mail game shows that players' mutual expectations may lock them into requiring an inefficiently large number of confirmations and confirmations of confirmations from one another. This paper shows that this result hinges on the assumption that, with the exception of the first message, each player can only send a message when receiving an immediately preceding message. We show that, once this assumption is lifted, equilibria involving confirmations of confirmations no longer pass standard refinements of the Nash equilibrium, and are no longer evolutionary stable.     

Analysis of vent area estimation methods for non-nomograph gases

The approach discussed in this paper is an attempt to allow a broader application of a loss prevention technique and to insure efficacy of the technique.