Do jet fuel price movements help forecast airline fares and the demand for air travel?

The paper studies the predictive content of jet fuel prices for the U.S. aviation industry through in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting exercises. Our results suggest the possibility of limited improvements in the predictions of airline fares, and little evidence of predictability from jet fuel prices to measures of air travel demand.     

“Theory will take you only so far” (Nolan, 2023): In search of greater insight through quantitative,observation-based research

Theories developed for understanding the general management or economic phenomena are increasingly ineffective for explaining logistics/SCM-specific phenomena, despite the best efforts of LSCM researchers to utilize them for those purposes. Unfortunately, the hierarchies and infrastructure in place to ensure LSCM research is theoretically grounded and conducted with scholarly rigor have not advanced to a point where the use of alternative methods to explore such questions is common. The key objective of this paper is to guide where empirical LSCM research could evolve if it took its relationship with theory a step further. Our thesis is that inductive research using empirical data can yield additional insightful answers to relevant questions. We hope that discussion of these topics from a 2024 perspective can spur more research that uses empirical analysis as a starting point to create new theory in LSCM and, importantly, to persuade members working in our field to respect and accept rigorous empirical research conducted outside the traditional deductive, logical positivist paradigm.