“Theory will take you only so far” (Nolan, 2023): In search of greater insight through quantitative,observation-based research

Theories developed for understanding the general management or economic phenomena are increasingly ineffective for explaining logistics/SCM-specific phenomena, despite the best efforts of LSCM researchers to utilize them for those purposes. Unfortunately, the hierarchies and infrastructure in place to ensure LSCM research is theoretically grounded and conducted with scholarly rigor have not advanced to a point where the use of alternative methods to explore such questions is common. The key objective of this paper is to guide where empirical LSCM research could evolve if it took its relationship with theory a step further. Our thesis is that inductive research using empirical data can yield additional insightful answers to relevant questions. We hope that discussion of these topics from a 2024 perspective can spur more research that uses empirical analysis as a starting point to create new theory in LSCM and, importantly, to persuade members working in our field to respect and accept rigorous empirical research conducted outside the traditional deductive, logical positivist paradigm.     

The customer-centered innovation map

We all know that people "hire" products and services to get a job done. Surgeons hire scalpels to dissect soft tissue. Janitors hire soap dispensers and paper towels to remove grime from their hands. To find ways to innovate, it's critical to deconstruct the job the customer is trying to get done from beginning to end, to gain a complete view of all the points at which a customer might desire more help from a product or service. A methodology called job mapping helps companies analyze the biggest drawbacks of the products and services customers currently use and discover opportunities for innovation. It involves breaking down the task the customer wants to accomplish into the eight universal steps of a job: (1) defining the objectives, (2) locating the necessary inputs, (3) preparing the physical environment, (4) confirming that everything is ready, (5) executing the task, (6) monitoring its progress, (7) making modifications as necessary, and (8) concluding the job. Job mapping differs substantively from process mapping in that the goal is to identify what customers are trying to get done at every step, not what they are doing currently. For example, when an anesthesiologist checks a monitor during a surgical procedure, the action taken is just a means to the end. Detecting a change in patient vital signs is the job the doctor is trying to get done. Within each of the discrete steps lie multiple opportunities for making the job simpler, easier, or faster. By mapping out every step of the job and locating those opportunities, companies can discover new ways to differentiate their offerings.     

Practical general equilibrium estimation of resource pulls under trade liberalization

This paper discusses the application of a model similar to the one developed in Leif Johansen's Multi-sectoral study of economic growth (1964) to the problem of determining general equilibrium responses of the economy to changes in commercial policy. This method amounts essentially to specifying a log-linear approximation to the general equilibrium solution for the economy, and solving the resulting linear equations for changes in endogenous variables as functions of exogenous variable changes. For a 35-sector model of the Chilean economy with labor as the only variable factor of production (to avoid the problem of overdetermination of many commodity price and output shifts when only two factors are considered in constant returns production functions), it is found that (i) the specification of the way in which intermediate inputs enter the production function is numerically important in determining output responses to tariff changes, detracting from the credibility of fixed coefficient effective rate of protection calculations if variable intermediate input coefficients are the rule (as appears likely empirically); (ii) exchange rate elasticities with respect to individual tariff changes are fairly large, so that the usual partial equilibrium assumption of exchange rate insensitivity to ‘small’ tariff revisions is not valid; (iii) employment effects of different tariff revisions are highly variable and in some cases substantial.     

Trade Liberalisation in Developing Economies: Modest Benefits but Problems with Productivity Growth, Macro Prices, and Income Distribution

Microeconomically, the case for liberalisation is dubious under increasing returns to scale and when firms can invest directly in productivity enhancement. Distributional effects of commercial policy changes can be regressive and large, but the 'rents' they generate can serve as a basis for effective policy intervention contingent on firms' performance. Macroeconomically, the case of liberalisation rests on Say's Law, which is not always enforced. Recent combined current and capital market liberalisations have been associated with strong exchange rates and high interest rates and output and productivity growth have positive mutual feedbacks which liberalisation may well suppress.     

Do jet fuel price movements help forecast airline fares and the demand for air travel?

The paper studies the predictive content of jet fuel prices for the U.S. aviation industry through in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting exercises. Our results suggest the possibility of limited improvements in the predictions of airline fares, and little evidence of predictability from jet fuel prices to measures of air travel demand.