MICHAEL P. CLEMENTS 《Journal of Money, Credit and Banking》2011,43(1):207-220

I consider the possibility that respondents to the Survey of Professional Forecasters round their probability forecasts of the event that real output will decline in the future, as well as their reported output growth probability distributions. I make various plausible assumptions about respondents’ rounding practices, and show how these impinge upon the apparent mismatch between probability forecasts of a decline in output and the probabilities of this event implied by the annual output growth histograms. I find that rounding accounts for about a quarter of the inconsistent pairs of forecasts.  相似文献   

    

Aiden P. Gregg  James Klymowsky 《心理学和销售学》2013,30(7):588-601

Direct measures of attitudes, such as self‐reported evaluations of consumer products and brands, are vulnerable to biases that undermine their validity (i.e., social desirability, self‐deception, and self‐ignorance). In contrast, indirect measures, many of which rely on reaction time to index underlying associations, resist such biases. Here, one such indirect measure, the Implicit Association Test (IAT), is highlighted, and its promise and pitfalls in market research, evaluated. It is concluded that the IAT can serve as a viable and valuable methodological tool. Its diagnostic and predictive advantages, which have been empirically established, outweigh its practical and theoretical drawbacks, which can be satisfactorily addressed.  相似文献   

    

Preston SH 《Medical economics》1997,74(21):85-6, 88, 90-5

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A. FRANK ADAMS III  A. H. BARNETT  DAVID L. KASERMAN 《Contemporary economic policy》1999,17(2):147-155

Organ transplantation holds the potential to substantially restore the health of many otherwise terminally ill patients. That potential, however, is currently being denied full realization by a chronic and severe shortage of cadaveric organs that are made available for this use. In recent years, medical practitioners, social scientists, and others have debated the virtues of allowing markets for cadaveric organs to form as a way to end the current shortage. In this debate, market opponents have argued, inter alia, that (1) organ collections may fall with payment of positive prices and (2) the price required to equilibrate organ supply and demand would be high. On the other hand, proponents of organ markets have argued that financial inducements could save many lives and that the equilibrium price is likely to be low. While dozens of papers have been published debating this issue, to date no one has provided any empirical evidence to resolve these important questions of supply. This paper provides preliminary evidence suggesting that potential donors would be relatively responsive to financial inducements and, accordingly, that the price required to eliminate the current shortage of organs is surprisingly low. (JEL 118, L50)  相似文献   

  总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Mcmillen DP 《Journal of urban economics》1994,(36):333-352

\"This paper tests a central prediction of vintage growth models of urban structure: that there are discontinuities in the population density function. The data set covers quarter sections in Chicago in 1980. Using such highly disaggregated data is critical because discontinuities are less likely to be found the larger is the unit of observation. Both a switching regression model and a nonparametric estimator reveal discontinuities and upward-sloping segments in the function, which supports the vintage growth model.\"  相似文献   

    

LAURENCE H. LESTER 《Australian economic papers》1993,32(61):320-335

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Paul J. H.  Schoemaker 《Journal of Management Studies》1993,30(1):107-129

Various models or lenses have been used to predict and understand strategic decisions in organizations. This article examines four classes: (1) the unitary rational; (2) the organizational; (3) the political; and (4) the contextual. They are conceptualized as stemming from different assumptions about goal congruency and co-ordinative efficiency. the contextual view is especially highlighted, as it is a relatively new perspective, both organizationally and cognitively. A brief discussion is offered of disciplines and findings that either support or refute some of these models. Possible syntheses and reconciliations of the four views are explored, focusing on: (1) assumptional fit; (2) level of analysis; (3) cost of fashioning collective rationality; (4) information processing limits in organizational design; and (5) the role of adaptation lags and disequilibrium. the article concludes with a call for a meta-theory that places the various perspectives in a larger framework.  相似文献   

    

Howard P. Marvel 《Managerial and Decision Economics》1993,14(2):151-162

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John P. Lajaunie  Atsuyuki Naka 《Review of Financial Economics》1992,2(1):68-74

Recent Studies in the area of foreign exchange market efficiency have employed time series analysis to test for the absence of long-run equilibrium or cointegration relationships among the exchange rates for the major currencies. Cointegration directly violates the weak form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis in a speculative efficient market (Granger, 1986). In this study, we address the efficiency of the Tokyo spot foreign exchange market while updating the test procedures developed by Phillips and Ouliaris (1990), Johansen and Juselius (1990) and Johansen (1991). Cointegration is found to be absent, showing that the Tokyo spot market is consistent with the efficient market hypothesis.  相似文献   

Acknowledgment     

Yahia H. Zoubir 《Thunderbird国际商业评论》2001,43(1):1-1

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