The real exchange rate,regime changes and volatility shifts

We make use of a data-set with both long span and high frequency to test for purchasing power parity (PPP) while allowing for a structural shift in the volatility of the Mexico–US bilateral real exchange rate (RER). The Kim, Leybourne and Newbold (2002) unit root test, robust to changes in the innovation variance, indicates mean stationarity of the monthly RER, and hence evidence of PPP, for the full sample, 1930–2012, and various subsamples. The persistence of deviations of the real rate from its PPP level as measured by half-lives ranges from 1.37 to 2.41 years.     

The effect of opposite sex siblings on cognitive and noncognitive skills in early childhood

We investigate the effect of having opposite sex siblings on cognitive and noncognitive skills of children in the United States at the onset of formal education. Our identification strategy rests on the assumption that, conditional on covariates, the sibling sex composition of the two firstborn children in a family is arguably exogenous. With regard to cognitive skills, learning skills and self-control measured in kindergarten, we find that boys benefit from having a sister, while there is no effect for girls. We also find evidence for the effect fading out as early as first grade.     

Analysing the risk premium in the Italian stock market: ARCH-M models versus non-parametric models

This Paper investigates the variability of the risk premium in the Italian stock market, over the period 1978–89. We have modelled voatility using two different approaches: ARCH-M models and non-parametric models. The estimate of the ARCH-M models confirm the existence of both an ARCH process in the variance and a time-varying risk premium. Also the non-parametric specification confirms the existence of a time varying risk premium. Moreover in both models the acceleration in the inflation rate has a negative effect on stock prices.     

The structure of bias in peer voting systems: lessons from the Eurovision Song Contest

This paper assesses whether and how common characteristics of jury members or peer voters affect the outcomes of voting systems. In particular, we analyze to what extent these common features result in voting bias. We take as a case study the Eurovision Song Contest for which an extensive amount of historical data is available. In contrast to earlier studies we analyze the impact of common factors on the bias individually for each country, which is necessary to substantiate the publicly debated accusations of regional block voting by certain groups of countries. We establish strong evidence for voting bias in the song contest on the basis of geography, even after correction for culture, language, religion and ethnicity. However, these effects do generally not correspond to the usual accusations. We believe that our findings extend to all instances where groups of jury members or peer voters share certain common factors, which may cause voting bias. It is important to identify such structures explicitly, as it can help avoiding bias in the first place. The authors are grateful to Marieke van Dijk for excellent research assistance and to Laurens Swinkels, Ieva Pudane, Gijsbert van Lomwel, Jelena Stefanovic, and Bas van den Heuvel for useful comments. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Italian Corporate Governance, Investment, and Finance

Italian industrial structure and financial markets have several distinct features. Italian firms are relatively small, few trade publicly and no corporate bond market exists. The limited types of external funds available to Italian firms makes them prone to financing constraints. We examine a panel containing over 1100 Italian firms. We find that firm size does not appear correlated with the severity of financing constraints. We also find that small firms are frequently mature. Our results suggest that young firms face financing constraints, while mature firms may develop relationships with lenders that lower the costs of external funds. Small, young firms appear to face the tightest financing constraints. Many firms are affiliatedwith pyramidal business groups. We find that affiliation with pyramidal businessgroups appears to reduce the effect of financing constraints. Our results haveimportant implications for government policy to promote small firm growth in Italy.     

Travel for treatment: students' perspective on medical tourism

Medical tourism is the act of travelling abroad for health care. The theory of planned behaviour was used to investigate the medical tourism beliefs of 336 undergraduate students in a basic psychology course at a large midwestern American university. Students did not have positive intentions for mere willingness to seek more information about travelling to a developing country to receive medical treatment. An educational intervention is necessary to help promote travel for medical treatment. The intervention may include educating people on the availability of quality health care, highly trained competent doctors and the ability to vacation and see another country. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The art of tourism-driven development: economic and artistic well-being of artists in three Balinese communities

One route from coastal to inland Bali traverses three communities with different types of art, from mass-produced art for beachside tourists in Sanur, through the village of Mas, home to mask and wood carving workshops, to several high-end galleries and renowned museums in Ubud, known for painting. This comparative case study, based on our interviews with artists, museum directors, collectors, community activists and leaders, arts entrepreneurs, and civil servants, focuses on the economic and artistic well-being of artists in three communities. This well-being approach overcomes a preoccupation with ‘authenticity’ characteristic of older scholarship on tourism and the arts in Southeast Asia. We conclude that the impact of tourism-driven development on artists' well-being varies tremendously even within one region in Bali and that ‘slow’, purposeful arts tourism and forward-looking, hybrid approaches offer the most artistic and economic benefits to local artists. Examples, both positive and negative, provide lessons or strategies for other communities that have distinctive artistic heritages and increasing numbers of tourists.     

Not just surviving,but thriving: perceived strengths of successful US‐based travel agencies

In‐depth interviews with owners of 19 exceptionally successful US‐based travel agencies were analyzed using a ground theory approach to reveal customer service excellence, employee enrichment and effective networking as three core perceived strengths that comprise a theme of ‘relationship building’. The latter is supported by a theme of ‘facilitation’ entailing diligent client selection, a culture of learning, high adaptability (related to technology and product realignment), scale, adherence to business basics, and owner optimism. Together, both themes suggest a macro‐theme of ‘deep commitment’. The results provide guidelines for aspiring travel agency owners. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

IMF concern for reputation and conditional lending failure: Theory and empirics

In this paper we suggest that the dual role played by the IMF, as a creditor and as a monitor of economic reforms, might explain the lack of credibility of the Fund threat of sanctioning non-compliance with conditionality. Specifically, we show that the IMF's desire to preserve its reputation as a good monitor may distort its lending decisions towards some laxity. Moreover, such distortionary incentives may be exacerbated by the length of the relationship between a country and the Fund. Estimating a dynamic panel of 53 middle-income countries, for the period 1982–2001, we find that a longer relationship does increase IMF disbursements.