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211.
Under the assumption of absence of arbitrage, European option quotes on a given asset must satisfy well-known inequalities, which have been described in the landmark paper of Merton [Merton, R., 1973. Theory of rational option pricing. Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science 4 (1), 141–183]. If we further assume that there is no interest rate volatility and that the underlying asset continuously pays deterministic dividends, cross-maturity inequalities must also be satisfied by the bid and ask option prices. 相似文献
212.
We study whether bank efficiency is related to bank ownership in Russia. We find that foreign banks are more efficient than domestic private banks and, surprisingly, that domestic private banks are not more efficient than domestic public banks. These results are not driven by the choice of production process, the bank's environment, management's risk preferences, the bank's activity mix or size, the econometric approach, or the introduction of deposit insurance. The policy conclusion is that the efficiency of the Russian banking system may benefit more from increased levels of competition and greater access of foreign banks than from bank privatization. 相似文献
213.
In this article, we focus on the estimation of outpatient expenditures with panel data. We model the logarithm of expenditures and consider five different models. The first two are two-part and sample selection cross-section models. Two-part panel data models turn out to be inappropriate for dealing with expenditures. We thus estimate sample selection models with panel data: one without a lagged dependent variable and two with a lagged dependent variable. These two latter models differ in their assumptions on the variance of the residuals. Modelling heteroscedasticity may indeed be important to avoid the bias due to the retransformation problem. We show that lagged dependent variables are important factors for heteroscedasticity. For the models with state dependence, we provide a new solution to the initial conditions problem by controlling for generalised residuals. We establish that panel data models highly improve the correlation explained by the model in the time-series dimension without damaging the fit in the cross-section dimension. For all indicators of fit, the model with state dependence and heteroscedasticity seems to dominate the others. 相似文献
214.
This paper provides a methodology for combining forecasts based on several discrete choice models. This is achieved primarily by combining one-step-ahead probability forecasts associated with each model. The paper applies well-established scoring rules for qualitative response models in the context of forecast combination. Log scores, quadratic scores and Epstein scores are used to evaluate the forecasting accuracy of each model and to combine the probability forecasts. In addition to producing point forecasts, the effect of sampling variation is also assessed. This methodology is applied to forecast US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions regarding changes in the federal funds target rate. Several of the economic fundamentals influencing the FOMC’s decisions are integrated, or I(1), and are modeled in a similar fashion to Hu and Phillips (J Appl Econom 19(7):851– 867, 2004). The empirical results show that combining forecasted probabilities using scores generally outperforms both equal weight combination and forecasts based on multivariate models. 相似文献
215.
216.
This paper proposes a two-regime Bounce-Back Function augmented Self-Exciting Threshold AutoRegression (SETAR) model which allows for various shapes of recoveries from the recession regime. It relies on the bounce-back effects which were first analyzed in a Markov-Switching setup by Kim, Morley, and Piger (2005), and were recently extended by Bec, Bouabdallah, and Ferrara (2011). This approach is then applied to the post-1973 quarterly growth rates of French, German, Italian, Spanish and Euro area real GDPs. Both the linear autoregression and the standard SETAR without the bounce-back effect null hypotheses are strongly rejected against the Bounce-Back augmented SETAR alternative in all cases but Italy. The relevance of our proposed model is further assessed by a comparison of its short-term forecasting performances with those obtained from a linear autoregression and a standard SETAR. It turns out that the bounce-back model’s one-step-ahead forecasts generally outperform the other ones, particularly during the last recovery period in 2009Q3–2010Q4. 相似文献
217.
Jean-Yves Gnabo Jérôme Lahaye Sébastien Laurent Christelle Lecourt 《Quantitative Finance》2013,13(10):1521-1532
This paper investigates the link between jumps in the exchange rate process and rumours of central bank interventions. Using the case of Japan, we analyse specifically whether jumps trigger false reports of intervention (i.e. an intervention is reported when it did not occur). Intraday jumps are extracted using a non-parametric technique recently proposed by Lee and Mykland in 2008 and by Andersen et al. in 2007, and later modified by Boudt et al. in 2011. Rumours are identified by using a unique database of Reuters and Dow Jones newswires. Our results suggest that a significant number of jumps on the YEN/USD have been falsely interpreted by the market as being the result of a central bank intervention. The paper has policy implications in terms of central bank interventions. We show that in times where the central bank is known to intervene, some investors may attach a lot of weight to central bank interventions as a source of exchange rate movement, leading to a false ‘intervention explanation’ for observed jumps. 相似文献
218.
Tied to the mast? National fiscal rules in the European Union 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
219.
Andrea Silvestrini Matteo Salto Laurent Moulin David Veredas 《Empirical Economics》2008,34(3):493-524
In this paper we forecast annual budget deficits using monthly information. Using French monthly data on central government
revenues and expenditures, the method we propose consists of: (1) estimating monthly
ARIMA models for all items of central government revenues and expenditures; (2) inferring the annual
ARIMA models from the monthly models; (3) using the inferred annual ARIMA models to perform one-step-ahead forecasts for each item; (4) compounding the annual forecasts of all revenues and expenditures
to obtain an annual budget deficit forecast. The major empirical benefit of this technique is that as soon as new monthly
data become available, annual deficit forecasts are updated. This allows us to detect in advance possible slippages in central
government finances. For years 2002–2004, forecasts obtained following the proposed approach are compared with a benchmark
method and with official predictions published by the French government. An evaluation of their relative performance is provided.
相似文献
220.
This research investigates the potential for a “fair” co-branding operation. A major corporate brand is fictitiously allied with a Fair Trade labelling organization brand. The sample for the study is composed of 540 respondents, representative of the French population. By considering commercial brands and Fair Trade labels as dissimilar in terms of customers’ perceived Fair Trade orientations, this article studies (1) how this lack of similarity impacts perceived congruence between both entities (i.e. perceived relevancy and expectancy of the alliance) and (2) how prior brand attitudes and congruence influence customers’ evaluation of the co-branded product. The results of this research demonstrate that: (1) Consumer prior brand attitudes toward the partner brands influence very little customers’ evaluation. (2) Perceived similarity of the partner brands has a strong influence toward congruence of the co-branding operation. Results also indicate that congruence (measured as relevancy and expectancy) has a strong influence upon customers’ evaluation. (3) An inverted U-shaped relationship exists between perceived similarity and relevancy of the alliance, and between expectancy and customers’ evaluation. The results obtained through the test of a partial least square model, and inverted U-shaped hypothesis, represent a new insight into co-branding theory. The high discursive power of fair co-branding is a key issue: the corporate brand provides the alliance with its leading position, while the Fair Trade brand provides the ethical attribute. 相似文献