House price dynamics: Evidence from Beijing

To study the house price dynamics in China, this paper extends the traditional life-cycle model by incorporating land supply, regime shifts and government regulation factors. The models are estimated with an error correction framework using quarterly data from 2000 to 2007 in Beijing. The conclusions are as follows. (1) There exits a stable co-integration relationship between house price and fundamentals; land supply and financial regimes are also important determinants of long-run equilibrium house prices. (2) Short-run dynamics depend on changes of fundamentals and the adjustment process of housing market. Land supply has a significant impact on house price fluctuations while demand factors such as user costs, income and residential mortgage loan have greater influences. The adjustment speed of real house prices to the long-run equilibrium has been reduced significantly since 2005 which means exogenous shocks can cause prolonged deviation of real house prices from the equilibrium level.     

我国纳税信用激励制度设计的实验经济学分析

纳税信用问题反映了纳税人的诚信纳税动机，提升公民的纳税信用需要合理的激励制度安排和配套措施来完善。通过实验经济学的方法，验证了便利的税收服务、对诚信纳税人的税收优惠、公开政府支出信息、公开纳税人的纳税信用、对失信纳税人的惩罚机制以及较好的社会纳税信用环境等正式制度与非正式制度均有利于显著提升我国纳税人的纳税信用倾向，并由此构建我国纳税信用激励制度。     

不确定性环境下的战略变革模型

在一个不确定性环境里,如何发现企业的战略老化并及时变革使之生存下去是摆在企业管理者面前的一道难题。在不确定性环境中,要降低不确定性,形成战略时就要做到在任何单位时间内均拥有大量的战略假设;拥有范围较宽的战略假设且是从正确的来源获得战略假设。形成战略后可采用使机会最大化的否证法进行战略选择。战略实施实际上也是对战略假设的再检验过程。在一定的时间间隔上对战略进行评估,如果出现战略老化的迹象或支持所选择战略的任何假设改变了,那么就转向另一种战略。     

基于资产专有性的企业控制权配置

主流的西方企业理论从资产专用性角度来研究企业控制权分配,无法很好解释企业控制权分配与企业参与者收益之间的相互关系.本文认为资产专用性和专有性是资产的二重性,资产专有性才是企业控制权的源泉,企业内部控制权在物质资本所有者与人力资本所有者之间分配取决于两者资产的专有性强弱,而不同资产所有者对企业控制权的实现形式取决于其资产拥有者行使控制权所获得收益和付出的成本大小.     

Does Audit Committee Accounting Expertise Help to Promote Audit Quality? Evidence from Auditor Reporting of Internal Control Weaknesses

In this study, we examine whether audit committee accounting expertise helps to promote audit quality by motivating auditors to conduct diligent internal control audits and make appropriate internal control assessments because audit committee accounting expertise safeguards auditors from dismissal following adverse internal control opinions. Among clients with existing and likely internal control material weaknesses (as proxied by future restatements of audited financial statements), we find a greater likelihood of adverse internal control audit opinions when the audit committee has greater accounting expertise (measured by the proportion of accounting experts on the audit committee). Among all clients, we find a lower likelihood of subsequent auditor dismissal following an adverse internal control audit opinion when the audit committee has greater accounting expertise. In further analyses, we find that this lower likelihood of subsequent auditor dismissal occurs when at least two audit committee members possess accounting expertise. We also find some evidence that CFO influence (but not CEO influence) over the audit committee negates the increased likelihood of adverse internal control opinions when internal control material weaknesses likely exist, as well as the decreased likelihood of auditor dismissal following adverse internal control opinions. These findings have important implications for regulators and corporate nominating committees interested in promoting audit committee effectiveness.     

政府采购中寻租行为的经济学分析

政府采购中项目剩余和信息不对称的存在,加之市场发育不完善,导致寻租行为的产生。公开交易信息,加大寻租成本,建立事前监督、事后惩罚制度,是遏制寻租行为产生的重要手段。     

吉林省财政支出对产业结构升级的影响

产业结构的优化升级是经济持续增长的核心要素。由于新旧动能尚未理顺,吉林省产业结构仍未得到合理调整,经济长期中低速发展,整体经济出现了明显下滑。在此背景下,如何发挥有限的财政资金使用效益,合理分配好财政资金,抓住创新驱动发展机遇,加快产业结构升级换代,努力建成特色新兴产业集群,形成一批具有持续竞争力和支撑力的产业体系,对于未来吉林省产业结构优化和实现经济高质量发展具有重要意义。通过构建产业结构优化指数,运用因子分析方法,找出哪些财政支出方向对产业结构优化指数影响较大,可以明确财政投入方向,进而有针对性地采取促进吉林省产业结构优化升级的财政对策。     

皖江城市跨江发展战略的思考

文章立足国内外城市跨江发展成功经验、模式及其研究现状,从缩小城市南北差距、提升城市竞争力和加速城市化进程方面剖析了皖江城市跨江发展的必要性,从政策驱动、示范区推动、经济实力带动和交通格局触动阐述了皖江城市跨江发展的可行性,提出了制定跨江发展总体规划,理清跨江发展思路;统筹规划,建立区域协调发展机制;加快构建皖江城市交通设施,做好大桥经济等六个方面的发展战略和对策。     

商业银行操作风险影响性评级模型研究

目前商业银行风险可以分为信用风险、市场风险和操作风险,操作风险已经成为与市场风险和信用风险同等重要的风险。介绍了操作风险的界定及构成因素,从其构成要素及特征指出商业银行操作风险影响性评级指标模型的设计原则,并设计其基本架构与计量模型。该计量模型采用定性分析和定量分析相结合、静态分析和动态分析相结合的方法,做到量化质化兼具、主观客观并存,综合运用层次分析法、模糊评价法及专家评判法。     

中国货币需求函数的非线性特征——基于STAR模型的实证研究

通过应用STAR(平滑转换自回归)模型对我国货币需求的误差修正模型进行非线性的实证检验,结果证明该模型呈现显着的非线性特征.具体形武为指数平滑自回归(ESTAR),其转换变量为滞后一期的真实国民收入,转换速度显著,但是较慢,转换函数的料率值为-2.64.该结论与我国经济发展状况相吻合,反映了货币政策调控的时滞性.本文建议采用非线性模型研究货币需求函数,同时提高货币政策在不同机制的转换速度,降低时滞.