Perceived inflation under loss aversion

Building on prospect theory, we apply the concept of loss aversion to the formation of inflation perceptions and test empirically for nonlinearities in the inflation-perceptions relation for a panel of 10 Euro area countries. Specifically, under the assumption of loss aversion, inflation changes above a certain reference rate will be perceived more strongly. Rejecting rationality of inflation perceptions in general under symmetric loss and in a majority of cases under flexible loss functions, panel smooth transition models give evidence of nonlinearities in the inflation-perceptions relation regarding both actual inflation and time. This result is confirmed by dynamic fixed effects estimates, where the slope of the estimated value function is significantly steeper in the loss region and the implied average reference inflation rate is found close to 2%.     

Examining the Influence of the Individual in Arts Sponsorship Decisions

Support from the corporate sector is an important revenue source for many nonprofit organizations. In this article, we consider individual-level influence within the decision-making processes of companies as they make decisions concerning nonprofit arts sponsorship. These decisions have often been linked to the influence of a single high-level executive, and the research contained here seeks to better understand the role of the individual in influencing these decisions. Through qualitative multiple-case research the authors find that a single individual, termed the advocate, is in fact influential. Furthermore, the advocate is determined not by their title or official ranking but by their possession of expert power, a combination of knowledge and the belief of others in that knowledge. In addition, how individuals influence these decisions relates to their application not of gut instinct, but of informed intuition. The article closes in suggesting new perspectives that will assist in better understanding this role.     

Pure Versus Mutual Health Insurance: Evidence From Swedish Historical Data

Using data from voluntary Swedish health insurance societies 1902‐1910, this article analyzes the coexistence of pure and mutual insurance societies where pure societies are characterized by charging ex ante premiums only while mutuals in addition charge ex post assessments. On average, mutual insurance societies are found to be larger and to offer greater insurance coverage per member. Pure insurance societies have, on average, higher insurance coverage per day, greater mean levels of moral hazard controls, a higher mean number of policy categories, and greater longevity.     

Asymmetry in government bond returns

Is there asymmetry in the distribution of government bond returns in developed countries? Can asymmetries be predicted using financial and macroeconomic variables? To answer the first question, we provide evidence for asymmetry in government bond returns in particular for short maturities. This finding has important implications for modeling and forecasting government bond returns. For example, widely used models for yield curve analysis such as the affine term structure model assume symmetrically distributed innovations. To answer the second question, we find that liquidity in government bond markets predicts the coefficient of skewness with a positive sign, meaning that the probability of a large and negative excess return is more likely in a less liquid market. In addition, a positive realized return is associated with a negative coefficient of skewness, or a small probability of a large and negative return in the future.     

The Myth of the Unscrupulous Energy User’s Dilemma: Evidence from Switzerland

Heating and warm water consumption are frequently billed based on actual consumption, and this approach can be assumed to provide a financial incentive to energy consumers to opt for energy-conserving behaviour (e.g., reducing the room temperature or using warm water economically). In many multi-flat buildings in Switzerland, tenants and homeowners still receive a heating and warm water bill that is based on a flat rate that depends on the size of the dwelling, rather than a bill that is based on the amount of energy actually consumed. In such a situation, there may be a social dilemma that leads to non-cooperative behaviour; economic theory predicts that households would choose a strategy of not sacrificing their level of comfort and, therefore, would not opt for energy-conserving behaviour. Psychological theory, on the other hand, suggests that a change in billing type might not, in and of itself, be a sufficient motivator to promote energy-conserving behaviour. This study aims to gain insight into Swiss consumers’ underlying motivations in conserving energy. It empirically tests whether and how a difference in billing type affects consumers’ current stated energy behaviour and their stated intention to conserve energy in the future. In neither of two separate studies was there any evidence of such a possible unscrupulous energy user’s dilemma. Thus, on its own, consumption-based billing might not lead to significant changes in consumer behaviour. However, it could constitute an essential part of a wider behaviour modification programme that includes more effective billing and direct feedback programmes.     

I thought it was over,but now it is back: customer reactions to <Emphasis Type="Italic">ex post</Emphasis> time extensions of sales promotions

In many industries, it is common practice to extend sales promotions ex post. That is, firms belatedly extend the initial deadline of a promotion shortly before or directly after the previously announced deadline, with the expectation of increased sales. Four experimental studies indicate both positive and negative effects of these ex post extensions. First, customers perceive an ex post extended promotional offer as less attractive, such that their repurchase intentions diminish. This negative effect arises consistently across different boundary conditions, such as different customer and product types. Second, the positive effect of ex post extensions stems from the possibility that the consumer can still use the promotional offer, so it emerges only for potential customers and existing customers of frequently bought products. Companies can mitigate the dark side of ex post extensions proactively, by designing the extensions to last for only a short time or offering an explanation for the extension that highlights the popularity of the initial promotion.     

Dynamite Regulations. The Explosives Industry,Regulatory Capture and the Swedish Government 1858-1948

In this article, we argue that the regulation of the explosives industry in Sweden between 1858 and 1948 can give a slightly different perspective on regulatory capture. In this case it was the upstart company, the Nobel Dynamite Company, and not the established explosives companies that in negotiation with the regulator succeeded in establishing new national regulations. Through three different cases we show that the method behind this successful capture was indirect and direct with a common trait of risk minimizing for the public that developed in cooperation with the regulator.