Bootstrap and Pretest J-Type Non-Nested Tests for Orthogonal Regression Models: Some Monte Carlo Evidence

This paper compares the size and power of two J-type tests for weakly correlated or nearly orthogonal non-nested regression models: a bootstrap and a pretest test. The latter seems to outperform the former in terms of its size characteristics, especially when the alternative model has more non-nested regressors and the orthogonality between the two sets of regressors is severe. The bootstrap test does better in terms of power.

     

Does Foreign Direct Investment Crowd Out Domestic Entrepreneurship?

In analyzing firm entry and exit across Belgian manufacturing industries, this paper presents evidence that import competition and foreign direct investment discourage entry and stimulate exit of domestic entrepreneurs. These results are in line with theoretical occupational choice models that predict foreign direct investment would crowd out domestic entrepreneurs through their selections in product and labor markets. However, the empirical results also suggest that this crowding out effect may be moderated or even reversed in the long-run due to the long term positive effects of FDI on domestic entrepreneurship as a result of learning, demonstration, networking and linkage effects between foreign and domestic firms.     

The Informational Role of Stock and Option Volume

This article analyzes the intraday interdependence of orderflows and price movements for actively traded NYSE stocks andtheir Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE)-traded options.Stock net trade volume (buyer-initiated volume minus seller-initiatedvolume) has strong predictive ability for stock and option quoterevisions, but option net trade volume has no incremental predictiveability. This suggests that informed investors initiate tradesin the stock market but not in the option market. On the otherhand, both stock and option quote revisions have predictiveability for each other. Thus, while information in the stockmarket is contained in both quote revisions and trades, informationin the option market is contained only in quote revisions.     

Debt and Equity Characteristics of Mandatorily Redeemable Preferred Stock

Abstract. This study examines whether mandatorily redeemable preferred stock (MRPS) is priced more like debt or equity by (1) investigating its debt and equity characteristics and (2) specifying conditions under which one characteristic would dominate the other. Based on a sample of 113 nonconvertible MRPS issued during 1970 to 1990, our results are consistent with the view that MRPS has both debt and equity characteristics. The debt (equity) feature is more pronounced among nonutility (utility) issues. Within the utility group, we find high (low) rated MRPS issues to be more debt (equity) like. Our results appear to support current MRPS disclosure rules.     

International commitment,post-entry growth and survival of international new ventures

This paper makes several contributions to the emerging literature on the post-entry behavior of international new ventures. Based on an extensive longitudinal data set, we investigate the dynamics of commitment, growth and survival of different types of newly internationalizing Belgian firms. Global start-ups have the highest initial and rapidly rising export commitment per market and are also more likely to continue exporting over time than geographically focused start-ups, and traditional staged exporters. However, global start-ups also display the highest failure rate. This high failure rate appears to result primarily from the ‘liability of newness’ and less from the added complexity associated with rapid and wide scope internationalization.     

Assessing the Impact of District Primary Education Program in India

We examine the impact of India's District Primary Education Program (DPEP) introduced in the mid‐1990s. We exploit the fact that the DPEP was targeted towards primary school age children and was introduced in phases to different districts in India, and many of the districts never got the program to implement a difference‐in‐difference strategy to find the causal impact of the program on probability of attended primary school, probability of completed primary education and years of schooling. We find that the DPEP program increased the probability of attended primary school and completed primary school by about 2 percentage points. Similarly, the program increased the years of schooling by 0.16 years.     

Optimal Exchange-Rate Policy in a Model of Local-Currency Pricing with Vertical Production and Trade

In this paper, we examine optimal exchange-rate flexibility in a model of local-currency pricing with vertical production and trade. Following a large body of empirical evidence, we assume that final-goods prices are sticky, but intermediate-goods prices are flexible. We find that, unlike what is found in the literature, optimal nominal exchange rate is flexible under local-currency pricing. The key element in deriving our conclusion is the difference in expenditure shares between home and foreign households. The conclusion holds even if the degrees of home bias in production are identical between home and foreign final-goods producers, which contrasts with the findings in the literature.     

Do economic statistics contain information to predict stock indexes futures prices and returns? Evidence from Asian equity futures markets

This research examines the impact of local and international market factors on the pricing of stock indexes futures in East Asian countries. The purpose of this paper is to present a study of the significant factors that determine the major stock indexes futures’ prices of Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan. This study first investigates the relationships between Hang Seng Index Futures, KLCI Futures, SiMSCI Futures, KOSPI Futures, Taiwan Exchange Index Futures and local interest rates, dividend yields, local exchange rates, overnight S&P500 index and a newly constructed index, Asian Tigers Malaysia Index (ATMI). 11 years historical data of stock indexes futures and the economic statistics are studied; 10 years in-sample data are used for testing and developing the pricing models, and 1 year out-of-sample data is used for the purpose of verifying the predicted values of the stock indexes futures. Using simple linear regressions, local interest rates, dividend yields, exchange rates, overnight S&P500 and ATMI are found to have significant impact on these futures contracts. In this research, the next period close is predicted using simple linear regression and non-linear artificial neural network (ANN). An examination of the prediction results using nonlinear autoregressive ANN with exogenous inputs (NARX) shows significant abnormal returns above the passive threshold buy and hold market returns and also above the profits of simple linear regression (SLR). The empirical evidence of this research suggests that economic statistics contain information which can be extracted using a hybrid SLR and NARX trading model to predict futures prices with some degree of confidence for a year forward. This justifies further research and development of pricing models using fundamentally significant economic determinants to predict futures prices.

     

Analyst Herding and Stock Price Crash Risk: Evidence from China

We examine the proposition that firms with disproportionately more analysts herding in their coverage, as measured by a larger herding index value, have higher crash risk. Our findings are consistent with the main proposition. The results suggest that information production, rather than monitoring, is the primary mechanism behind the positive relation between herding and crash risk. Our conclusion is robust to different measures of crash risk, crash risk windows, herding measures, subsamples, and instrumental estimation. In addition, using post‐earnings announcement drift, we report that analyst herding slows down bad news transmission in the market. Our findings extend the literature by documenting that analyst herding plays a role in enhancing crash risk. Analyst herding has economic consequences on the covered firms. We offer support for the concern in the literature regarding analyst herding and market fluctuations.