Industry and time specific deviations from fundamental values in a random coefficient model

The paper analyzes the relationship between stock prices and fundamentals for a large sample of US stocks in the last 10 years using a random coefficient model. Heterogeneity and omitted variable bias are properly taken into account with model coefficients being allowed to vary across time and industries. The random coefficient model allows to track waves of reliance on analysts’ forecasts and nonfundamental stock price components across time and clearly identifies the growth of the nonfundamental component in the long 1991–2000 swing.      

Development as leapfrogging,not convergence,not catch-up: towards schumpeterian theories of finance and development

Our aim is to demark a pathway towards Schumpeterian theories of finance and development. To do this, we offer four basic propositions for discussion. First, we suggest that ‘convergence’ and ‘catch-up’ are, from a Schumpeterian perspective, theoretically inadequate concepts as they frame development narratives similarly to the Rostovian idea of a linear path towards some sort of ‘equilibrium imposed on history’. Leapfrogging by means of innovation and finance is put forward as a better approach to analyzing development trajectories. Second, we contend that rather than the often-assumed convergence among nations, history shows that ‘divergence’ is a more common result of development trajectories; this is especially visible in the last half a century. Third, we outline the key features of this Schumpeterian framework, centered on the concept of leapfrogging through innovation and finance. We conclude by highlighting the essential roles of finance and financial governance within this alternative framework for understanding successful development trajectories, and posit that this construct may be labeled a Schumpeterian entrepreneurial state.     

Gender differences in socially responsible consumption. An experimental investigation

We report on a simple experimental study designed to investigate the different gender attitudes towards socially responsible consumption. We use the Vote-with-the-Wallet Game, (VWG), a version of a repeated multiplayer prisoner’s dilemma that mimics the characteristics of the choice between a conventional and a socially responsible product. More precisely we test the effect of three factors: two different frames and an ex-post redistribution mechanism that transfers resources from purely self-interested consumers to responsible ones. We find that women remain significantly more cooperative (choosing more often the responsible good) when the redistribution mechanism is interrupted and are significantly less satisfied about the behaviour of the other players in that treatment.     

GROWTH AND INCOME POVERTY IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: EVIDENCE FROM HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS

This paper provides evidence on growth and income poverty in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Results are obtained by processing microdata from household surveys of 18 LAC countries covering the 1990s and early 2000s. Over this period the LAC economies experienced heterogeneous patterns of growth and poverty changes. Most countries in the region had a rather meager performance in terms of poverty reduction. Episodes of positive, significant and unambiguously pro-poor income growth have been rare in Latin America.     

Inequality Stagnation in Latin America in the Aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis

Between 2003 and 2010, Latin America experienced a solid record of economic growth, coupled with a notable reduction in income inequality. The regional Gini coefficient fell from 0.556 to 0.521 and declined in all 15 out of 17 countries in which frequent data are available. However, previous studies have warned about problems in the sustainability of the decline in income inequality and this study presents evidence of stagnation on this front between 2010 and 2013. The results are robust to various measures of income inequality, but differ across the region. While largely attributable to the recovery from the global financial crisis in Mexico and some countries in Central America, the results are also supported by the demonstrated slowdown in inequality reduction in other countries, including Brazil, Ecuador and Bolivia.     

A NOTE ON CHAMBERS'S “LONG MEMORY AND AGGREGATION IN MACROECONOMIC TIME SERIES”*

This note reviews some results on aggregating discrete‐time long memory processes, providing a formula for the spectrum of the aggregates that considers the aliasing effect.     

Socially responsible and conventional investment funds: performance comparison and the global financial crisis

We investigate the performance of socially responsible funds (SRFs) and conventional funds (CFs) in different market (geographical area and class size) segments during the period 1992–2012. From an unbalanced sample of more than 22 000 funds, we define a matched sample using a beta-distance measure to match any SRF with the ‘nearest neighbour’ CF in terms of sensitivity to risk factors. Using this matching approach and a recursive analysis, we identify several switch points in the lead/lag relationship between the two investment styles over time in different market segments. A relevant finding of our analysis is that SRFs played an ‘insurance role’ outperforming CFs during the 2007 global financial crisis.     

Testing for heterogeneity of preferences in randomized experiments: a satisfaction-based approach applied to multiplayer prisoners’ dilemmas

We use experimental data from the ‘vote with the wallet’ multiplayer prisoner’s dilemma to investigate with a finite mixture approach the effect of a responsible purchase on players’ satisfaction. We find clear-cut evidence of heterogeneity of preferences with two groups of players that differ significantly in terms of effects of the responsible choice on satisfaction.     

Relationships between macroeconomic time series in a fixed-exchange-rate economy: The case of Italy

This paper presents an empirical analysis that is useful for the task of characterizing the dynamic structure and causal orderings of the underlying macroeconomic model of a fixed-exchange-rate economy. Particular emphasis is given to the formulation and testing of versions of the ‘natural-rate’ hypothesis, the ‘small open economy’ hypothesis, and the ‘non-sterilization’ hypothesis. These issues are examined on the basis of quarterly time series for Italy (1956 1970)     

A theory of political cycles

We study how the proximity of elections affects policy choices in a model in which policymakers want to improve their reputation to increase their reelection chances. Policymakers' equilibrium decisions depend on both their reputation and the proximity of the next election. Typically, incentives to influence election results are stronger closer to the election (for a given reputation level), as argued in the political cycles literature, and these political cycles are less important when the policymaker's reputation is better. Our analysis sheds light on other agency relationships in which part of the compensation is decided upon infrequently.