Inside the bank lending channel

This paper tests cross-sectional differences in the effectiveness of the bank lending channel. The results, derived from a comprehensive sample of Italian banks, suggest that heterogeneity in the monetary policy pass-through exists. After a monetary tightening the decrease in lending is lower for well-capitalized banks that are perceived as less risky by the market and are better able to raise uninsured deposits. Liquid banks can protect their loan portfolio against monetary tightening simply by drawing down cash and securities. The presence of internal capital markets in bank holding companies also contributes to insulate monetary shocks. Bank size is never relevant.     

Do Bank Capital and Liquidity Affect Real Economic Activity in the Long Run? A VECM Analysis for the US

This paper analyses the long‐term economic costs of the new regulatory standards (the so‐called Basel III reform) for the US. Using a Vector Error Correction Model that estimates long‐run relationships among a small set of macro‐variables over the period 1994–2008, it shows that tighter capital and liquidity requirements have negative (but rather limited) effects on the level of long‐run steady‐state output and more sizeable effects on banks’ return on equity. The economic costs are considerably below the estimated positive benefit that the reform should have by reducing the probability of banking crises and the associated banking losses ( BCBS, 2010b ).     

Bank profitability and the business cycle

An important element of the macro-prudential analysis is the study of the link between business cycle fluctuations and banking sector profitability and how this link is affected by institutional and structural characteristics. This work estimates a set of equations for net interest income, non-interest income, operating costs, provisions, and profit before taxes, for banks in the main industrialized countries and evaluates the effects on banking profitability of shocks to both macroeconomic and financial factors. Distinguishing mainly the euro area from Anglo-Saxon countries, the analysis also identifies differences in the resilience of the respective banking systems and relates them to the characteristics of their financial structure.     

Productivity, wages and intrinsic motivations

There is a long-standing debate in labour economics on the impact of workers’ intrinsic motivations on equilibrium wages. One direction in economic theory suggests that intrinsically motivated workers are willing to accept lower wages and “donate” work, for example, in terms of unpaid overtime (the donative-labour hypothesis). In the other direction, intrinsic motivations are expected to increase worker productivity and, in turn, wages (the intrinsic motivation-productivity hypothesis). Using a new database of a sample of workers in the cooperative non-profit sector, we find that, consistently with the motivation-productivity hypothesis, more motivated workers earn significantly higher wages, which signals higher productivity. Evidence supporting the donative-labour hypothesis is weaker, even though a generally positive connection between motivations and work-donation is confirmed. We interpret these findings by arguing that the impact of the donative-labour effect is dominated by the intrinsic motivation-productivity effect.     

Eudaimonic happiness as a leading health indicator: cross-country European evidence

ABSTRACT

Eudaimonic happiness (measured in terms of sense of life) is a relatively unexplored subjective wellbeing indicator. The empirical findings presented in this paper show that it has a significant and quantitatively remarkable correlation with the future insurgence of some chronic diseases and the reduction of most functionalities in the ageing population. These results document that eudaimonic happiness is a relevant leading indicator of future health outcomes and expenditure and that its correlation is independent from that of the traditional life satisfaction measure.     

The effect of fair trade affiliation on child schooling: evidence from a sample of Chilean honey producers

We evaluate the impact of Fair Trade (FT) affiliation on child schooling within a sample of Chilean honey producers with a retrospective panel data approach. From a theoretical point of view, we argue that FT should have a positive effect on child schooling since it generates a short-run pure income effect together with a medium-run productivity effect on both adult and child wages. On the other hand, because of the higher productivity generated by the medium-run effect, the opportunity cost of child education increases if they work with their parents. The direction of the impact of FT affiliation on child schooling is therefore uncertain and requires empirical testing. Our econometric findings document a positive and significant impact of affiliation years on child schooling after controlling for endogeneity and heterogeneity between the treatment and control sample.     

Renegotiation and Collusion in Organizations

It has been argued that collusion among the members of an organization may lead to inefficiencies and hence should be prevented in equilibrium. This paper shows that whenever the parties to an organization can renegotiate their incentive scheme after collusion, these inefficiencies can be greatly reduced. Moreover, it might not be possible to prevent collusion and renegotiation in equilibrium. Indeed, if collusion is observable but not verifiable, then the organization's optimal incentive scheme will always be renegotiated. If, instead, collusion is not observable to the principal, both collusion and renegotiation will occur in equilibrium with positive probability. The occurrence of collusion and renegotiation should therefore not be taken as evidence of the inefficiency of an organization.     

Time series analysis for financial market meltdowns

There appears to be a consensus that the recent instability in global financial markets may be attributable in part to the failure of financial modeling. More specifically, it is alleged that current risk models have failed to properly assess the risks associated with large adverse stock price behavior. In this paper, we first discuss the limitations of classical time series models for forecasting financial market meltdowns. Then we set forth a framework capable of forecasting both extreme events and highly volatile markets. Based on the empirical evidence presented in this paper, our framework offers an improvement over prevailing models for evaluating stock market risk exposure during distressed market periods.     

Lock-in and unobserved preferences in server operating systems: A case of Linux vs. Windows

This paper investigates to what extent the persistence of Microsoft Windows in the market for server operating systems is due to lock-in or unobserved preferences. While the hypothesis of lock-in plays an important role in the antitrust policy debate for the operating systems market, it has not been extensively documented empirically. To account for unobserved preferences, we use a panel data identification approach based on time-variant group fixed effects, and estimate the dynamic discrete choice panel data model developed by Arellano and Carrasco (2003). Using detailed establishment-level data, we find that once we account for unobserved preferences, the estimated magnitudes of lock-in are considerably smaller than those from the conventional approaches, suggesting that unobserved preferences play a major role in the persistence of Windows. Further robustness checks are consistent with our findings.