Targeting fertility and female participation through the income tax

We evaluate the effect of a 2003 reform in the Spanish income tax on fertility and the employment of mothers with small children. The reform introduced a tax credit for working mothers with children under the age of three, while also increasing child deductions for all households with children. Theoretically, given the interplay of these two components, the expected effect of the reform is ambiguous on both outcomes. We find that the combined reforms significantly increased both fertility (by almost 5%) and the employment rate of mothers with children under three (by 2%). These effects were more pronounced among less-educated women. In addition, to disentangle the impact of the two reform components, we use an earlier reform that increased child deductions in 1999. We find that the child deductions affect mothers' employment negatively, which implies that the 2003 tax credit would have increased employment even more (up to 5%) in the absence of the change in child deductions.     

Open interest,volume, and volatility: evidence from Taiwan futures markets

This paper examines the relationships amongst volatility, total trading volume (TVOL) and total open interest (TOI) for three Taiwan stock index futures markets as well as the role of the latter two variables in the dynamics of GARCH modeling and forecasting. From both ex-post and ex-ante perspectives, we study this issue by using the VAR model and augmented GARCH-type models, respectively. For the GARCH-type models, we employ both symmetric and asymmetric models augmented with lagged logs in TOI and/or TVOL. We find that whether addition of these two variables helps the basic GARCH models predict future volatility depends upon the sample period examined for all three sets of futures. Nonetheless, the best three models for out-of-sample volatility forecasting in the MSE sense are generally the augmented models for all sub-intervals and all three futures contracts.     

Managing sourcing team effectiveness: The need for a team perspective in purchasing organizations

To meet today’s high demands on the purchasing function, sourcing teams have become the standard in contemporary corporate purchasing organizations. Sourcing teams are often started with high expectations. However, after making a promising start many of these teams appear to be unable to operate effectively and to meet management expectations. This study shows that sourcing team effectiveness is particularly hindered by a lack of team perspective in many purchasing organizations. In this paper, the results of a large-scale, cross-sectional survey to address the success factors for sourcing teams are discussed. We aim to clarify the factors behind sourcing team performance, taking into account the specific task and organizational context. It is concluded that purchasing executives should shift their focus towards employee involvement and team processes, to enable teams to actually meet and even surpass the expectations placed on them.     

CSR Policies: Effects on Labour Productivity in Spanish Micro and Small Manufacturing Companies

Journal of Business Ethics - This paper analyses empirical evidence of efforts to enable Spanish micro and small manufacturing companies to boost their labour productivity rates through the...     

Context sensitive multimodal road planning: a case study in Cape Town, South Africa

Road planning practice relies almost exclusively on parameters related to traffic factors, such as private vehicle speeds and volumes. In many developing countries the requirements for public transport and non-motorised transport are not explicitly integrated into the planning process, despite the fact that these form the primary mode of transport for the majority of the population. This affects the mobility opportunities for these sectors of the population and contributes to poor road safety, especially with regards to pedestrians. The research outlined in the paper posits that, in order to assess the usage and needs of the road holistically, other factors related to the adjacent land uses, socio-economic characteristics of the population the road serves, and the environmental context within which the road is located, factors heavily in how the road is used and should, therefore, be considered within the planning process. The paper describes a methodology to include these factors in the planning of roads. The method attempts to prioritise amongst the five primary road based modes (public transport, car, freight, walking and cycling) based upon a combination of traffic and non-traffic factors. The method employed uses a geographic information system (GIS) based spatial multiple criteria evaluation (SMCE) model with inputs from widely available data sources such as census, household travel surveys, land use and environmental data to arrive at solutions for modal priorities. A case study is conducted along an arterial route in Cape Town, South Africa, providing infrastructure planning recommendations and audit possibilities for the future. Since weighting is an important driver in the SMCE process, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to investigate the effect of alternative weighting schemes on the outputs from the method.     

不良资产剥离后不良贷款缘何居高不下

处理银行不良资产已成为建立稳定经济金融体系的当务之急，我国通过成立金融资产管理公司处理不良资产，对化解银行风险具有重要意义，但部分银行出现了不良资产前剥后增的现象，造成这种现象的原因是多方面的，因此，化解银行不良贷款的政策也应综合考虑。     

Cross-country differences in attitudes to business associations during the 2007–2010 recession

This paper uses empirical data gathered through an on-line survey of 206 small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), conducted in France, Sweden and the UK. The paper examines cross-country differences in SME managers’ perceptions of business associations as sources of political intelligence and their ability to influence policy responses to financial crises. Findings demonstrate that the respondents’ countries of origin are significantly correlated with (1) their use of information sources to gather political intelligence, (2) their perceptions regarding the effectiveness of business associations in influencing policy outcomes, and (3) their perceptions regarding policymakers’ appreciation of information provided by SME associations.     

The ECB's New Multi-Country Model for the euro area: NMCM — Simulated with rational expectations

The model presented here is an estimated medium-scale New Multi-Country Model (NMCM) which covers the five largest euro area countries and is used for forecasting and scenario analysis at the European Central Bank. The model has a tight theoretical structure which allows for non-unitary elasticity of substitution, non-constant augmenting technical progress and heterogeneous sectors with differentiated price and income elasticities of demand across sectors. Furthermore, it has the explicit inclusion of expectations on the basis of three optimising private sector decision making units: i.e. firms, trade unions and households, where output is in the short run demand-determined and monopolistically competing firms set prices and factor demands. Labour is indivisible and monopoly-unions set wages and households make consumption/saving decisions.We assume that agents optimise under limited information where each agent knows only the parameters related to his/her optimisation problem. Therefore we estimate with GMM, which implicitly assumes limited information boundedly rational expectations. In this paper we provide some simulation results under the assumption of model-consistent rational expectations, we show that there is some heterogeneity across countries and that the reactions of the economies to shocks depend strongly on whether the shocks are pre-announced, announced and credible or unannounced and uncredible.