Replication and reality: or,the future of sociology

This article has been written to raise some questions about the practice of sociology in the past in order to be clearer about sociological practice in the future. Its object is to encourage some reflection on what sociologists do in order that sociology may have a securer future. More specifically the author is concerned with the theoretical implications of some of the methodological assumptions that sociologists make, and with the need for a better epistemological base for sociology as a predicting science.     

Trade Union Decline and the Distribution of Wages in the UK: Evidence from Kernel Density Estimation

This paper assesses the impact of changes in union density on the male structure in the UK over the 1980s. Using four separate data sets, we estimate the kernel density of hourly wages for men. Counterfactual densities are then generated to predict how the distribution of wages has changed over time because of the decline in union membership. We find that approximately 20 percent of the increase in the variance of log wages over the period can be attributed to changes in unionisation. The effect is particularly strong in the latter part of the period. We also present disaggregated estimates of the impact of declining unionisation. Our results are robuts across all the data sets we examine and similar results are obtained if union coverage is used rather than union membership.     

Union Coverage Differentials. Some Estimates for Britain Using the New Earnings Survey Panel Dataset

This paper reports individual-level estimates of union/non-union wage differentials, using coverage information from the New Earnings Survey Panel Dataset. There are no existing panel estimates for the United Kingdom. Of a number of findings, the more important are (i) fixed-effects estimates are about one-half the equivalent cross-section estimates; (ii) the biggest differentials are for ‘company/district/local only’ agreements; and (iii) the differential is counter-cyclical. Also the effect of the 1979/82 recession was probably dampened by anti-union legislation, and the upward trend between 1975 and 1995 is due to the decentralization of collective pay bargaining.     

The Long-Run Economic Costs of AIDS: A Model with an Application to South Africa

Primarily a disease of young adults, AIDS imposes economic coststhat could be devastatingly high in the long run by underminingthe transmission of human capital—the main driver of long-runeconomic growth—across generations. AIDS makes it harderfor victims’ children to obtain an education and deprivesthem of the love, nurturing, and life skills that parents provide.These children will in turn find it difficult to educate theirchildren, and so on. An overlapping generations model is usedto show that an otherwise growing economy could decline to alow-level subsistence equilibrium if hit with an AIDS-type increasein premature adult mortality. Calibrating the model for SouthAfrica, where the HIV prevalence rate is over 20 percent, simulationsreveal that the economy could shrink to half its current sizein about four generations in the absence of intervention. Programsto combat the disease and to support needy families could avertsuch a collapse, but they imply a fiscal burden of about 4 percentof GDP.     

Incorporating Resilience in the Assessment of Inclusive Wealth: An Example from South East Australia

This paper explores the consequences of changes in a system’s resilience on the sustainability of resource allocation decisions, as measured by Inclusive Wealth (IW) (Arrow et al. in Environ Resour Econ 26:647–685, 2003). We incorporate an estimate of resilience in IW by taking account of known or suspected thresholds that can lead to irreversible (or practically irreversible) changes in the productivity and value of assets and hence social welfare. These thresholds allow us to identify policies or projects that may be leading to an increased risk of decline in capital stocks (the wealth of the region). Such risks are not reflected through usual measures of current system performance, e.g. agricultural production. We use the Goulburn-Broken Catchment in south-eastern Australia as a case study to explore the significance and practicality of including resilience in inclusive wealth estimates.     

Economic burden of comorbid chronic kidney disease and diabetes

Objective: To estimate real-world healthcare utilization and expenditures across the spectrum of chronic kidney disease (CKD), as determined by estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) categories in patients with diabetes.

Methods: This study employed a retrospective cohort study design using the Truven Healthcare and Claims Dataset from 2009–2012. Index date was defined as the first eGFR value during a continuous enrollment period of 24 months. Cohorts of patients were stratified by Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes CKD stage based on eGFR (stages 1: ≥90?mL/min/1.73?m²; 2: 60–89; 3A: 45–59; 3B: 30–44; 4: 15–29; 5: <15). Healthcare expenditures (total patient and payer paid claims) and utilization (number of claims or visits) were estimated 12-months post-index date using generalized linear modeling and negative binomial modeling, respectively, after adjusting for baseline characteristics.

Results: Of 130,098 patients with an index eGFR value and 24-months continuous enrolment, 64,521 (49.59%) were in stage 1 CKD, 47,816 (36.75%) were in stage 2, 13,377 (10.28%) were in stage 3A, 3,217 (2.47%) were in stage 3B, 898 (0.69%) were in stage 4, and 269 (0.21%) were in stage 5. Patients in stages 3A, 3B, and 4 CKD had 1.32 (95% CI?=?1.22–1.43), 1.59 (95% CI?=?1.41–1.80), and 2.65 (95% CI?=?2.23–3.14) times higher rates of diabetes-associated inpatient visits, respectively, compared with stage 1 CKD patients. Patients in stages 3A, 3B, and 4 CKD had increased incremental total annual healthcare expenditures of $1,732 (95% CI?=?$1,109–$2,356), $2,632 (95% CI?=?$1,647–$3,619), and $6,949 (95% CI?=?$5,466–$8,432), respectively, compared with stage 1 CKD patients.

Limitations: The claims data were generated for billing and reimbursement, not for research purposes.

Conclusions: These real-world data suggest an incremental and significant increase in economic burden in diabetes as kidney function declines, starting with moderate (stage 3A) CKD.