An Out-of-Sample Analysis of Investment Guarantees for Equity-Linked Products

Abstract

In this paper we analyze the risk underlying investment guarantees using 78 different econometric models: GARCH, regime-switching, mixtures, and combinations of these approaches. This extensive set of models is compared with returns observed during the financial crisis in an out-of-sample analysis, bringing a new perspective to the study of equity-linked insurance. We find that despite the very good fit of recent models, too few of them are capable of consistently generating low returns over long periods, which were in fact observed empirically during the financial crisis. Moreover, tail risk measures vary significantly across models, and this emphasizes the importance of model risk. Most insurance companies are now focusing on dynamically hedging their investment guarantees, and so we also investigate the robustness of the Black-Scholes delta hedging strategy. We find that hedging errors can be very large among the top fitting models, implying that model risk must be taken into consideration when hedging investment guarantees.     

The Impact of DC Pension Systems on Population Dynamics

Abstract

This study investigates the risk inherent in defined contribution (DC) pension plans on an individual and aggregate basis, based on U.S. data. Our aim is to gain insight into the consequences of a DC pension scheme becoming the predominant pillar of retirement income for an entire society. Using the stochastic simulated output of a DC flexible age-of-retirement model, we first determine the optimal investment strategies. We then examine the demographic retirement dynamics of an entire population of DC pension plan participants.

We observe that even for the most risk-averse plan members there is a high level of uncertainty in an individual’s age at retirement. At the aggregate population level, we find that this uncertainty does not get dampened to any great extent by a diversification effect. Instead, the central role played by the market in determining retirement dates results in significant variation in the dependency ratio (the ratio of retirees to workers) over time. In addition, an attempt to ameliorate the outcome by introducing additional realistic features in the DC population modeling did little to dampen this volatility, which suggests that countries dominated by DC schemes of this type may, over time, be exposed to significant risk in the size of its labor force.     

The impact of cost on the choice of university: evidence from Ontario

Abstract. This paper provides the first Canadian study of the link between cost to the student and the choice of university. Over the past two decades, there has been a substantial increase in the differences among Ontario universities in ‘net cost’ defined as tuition and fees minus the expected value to an academically strong student of a guaranteed merit scholarship. Our estimates generally indicate no relationship between net cost and the overall share of strong applicants that a university is able to attract. An increase in net cost is associated with an increase in the ratio of strong students from high‐income neighbourhoods to strong students from middle‐income and low‐income neighbourhoods in Arts and Science programs but not in Commerce and Engineering. Finally, more advantaged students are more likely to attend university, but merit aid is not of disproportionate benefit to those from more economically advantaged backgrounds, given registration. JEL classification: Health Education and Welfare     

The experience of teleworking: an annotated review

The paper reviews the contemporary literature on the experience of teleworking. Particular attention is paid to the socializing aspects of work and its comparative absence when working from home; economic considerations, both for homeworkers and for the firms; work satisfaction and motivation; supervision; roles and gender issues in homeworking; the organization of time and space; and, lastly, questions of self-discipline. The evidence reviewed is based on various teleworking trials conducted mainly during the 1980s; this information is supplemented by original research conducted by the authors which investigated the pros and cons raised by British Telecom operators who were due to take part in a teleworking trial. These operators anticipated many of the issues faced by those who actually had teleworking experience.     

THE AGEING POPULATION: CRUNCH TIME FOR GOVERNMENT REFORMS

Current discussions about reforms to health and long‐term care miss the most important trends that should be influencing debate. With an ageing population that includes a higher proportion of people with manageable illnesses, health and care costs will rise. Reforms must ensure that existing government spending is used more efficiently and that it harnesses – rather than works against – private financing.     

Consumer ethnocentrism,product necessity and quality perceptions of Russian consumers

Retail buyers in Russia have indicated that some customers have expressed a desire to purchase domestically produced products over imports. Consumer ethnocentrism has been proposed as a measure to provide retail buyers with the information necessary to market to these consumers. The purpose of this research is to determine if perceived product quality of products differs based on country of origin, product necessity and consumer ethnocentric tendency. A repeated measures ANOVA test indicates that perceived quality differs by necessity, by product, by country. A consumer ethnocentrism effect on the overall model, however, was not significant. We conclude that Russian consumers do perceive differences in product quality based on country of origin and product necessity, but that consumer ethnocentrism does not have an effect on perceived product quality.