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81.
82.
Franz Neueder 《Intereconomics》2003,38(4):190-195
While the political benefits of the coming EU enlargement are relatively easy to identify, its economic and financial consequences
are less unequivocal. The following article examines the likely costs and benefits of enlargement to both existing and future
Members, and in particular how it will affect Germany, one of the few present EU Member States which has direct borders with
acceding states.
The article expresses the personal opinions of the author. 相似文献
83.
Phillip J. Bryson 《Intereconomics》2003,38(5):276-282
The arrival of the 2001–2003 recession caused many to suppose that the so-called “New Economy” was now defunct. This article
addresses a number of related issues, including the question of the durability and viability of business cycles in the face
of the technological developments of the information age. It asks what went wrong with the New Economy and examines its characteristics
as well as its remaining possibilities and prospects for the future. Finally, it considers the spread of the Information Economy
to Europe, especially to Germany, the country that one might expect to be the leading European player, but which is not at
present actually a strong competitor for that role. 相似文献
84.
Stochastic dominance and Lorenz dominance are examples of orderings which require unanimous agreement among an infinite set of indices. This paper considers various subsets of inequality measures that respect Lorenz dominance, and assesses the extent to which a small number of indices can reproduce the Lorenz ordering. Using income data for 80 countries, our results suggest that Lorenz dominance can be predicted with 99% accuracy using just 3 or 4 inequality measures, as long as two of them focus on the extreme upper and lower tails of the distribution. In contrast, confining attention to the index families and parameter ranges normally considered may fail to detect the majority of occasions when Lorenz curves intersect. These results lead us to question the faith placed in procedures based on a finite set of inequality indices, and to suggest that similar lessons will apply to other types of unanimity orderings. 相似文献
85.
This paper employed eleven data series which consist of stocks, bonds, bills, equity premiums, term premiums, and various default premiums to investigate whether January seasonality reported in existing literature is robust across different states of the economy as this has important trading implications. For the periods 1926–1990, small stocks, small stock premiums, low grade bonds, and default premiums (spread between high grade, low grade and government bonds) reveal January seasonality and that the seasonality is robust across different states of the economy except for low grade bond returns and default premiums. January seasonality for low grade bond returns and low grade bond default premiums are primarily driven by results found during periods of economic expansion. Overall, January seasonality is more evident during the economic expansion periods although the magnitude of default premiums is larger during periods of economic contraction. Furthermore, prior findings of strong summer equity returns are primarily driven by the results found during the periods of economic contraction. It is also found that equity returns are generally higher during periods of economic expansion. 相似文献
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90.
Peter Albrecht 《保险科学杂志》2003,92(4):725-743
The present contribution analyzes the implications of two central factors influencing the asset allocation decision of (German) life insurance companies, the development of the equity market on one hand and the interest rate guarantees included in traditional life insurance products on the other. The adverse development of share prices in 2000–2002 implies the necessity to consider not only ?normal“ volatility but also worst case-developments for the purpose of risk control. Formally this is done by using the risk measures value-at-risk and conditional value-at-risk. The specific ?myopic“ nature of interest rate guarantees in German life insurance products, which are granted on a yearly basis implies — beyond the general control of the shortfall risk with respect to the guaranteed interest rates — the necessity to per-form the asset allocation on a yearly basis to be in conformity with the time horizon of the liabilities.On the basis of a quantitative approach corresponding model calculations are performed. Thereby not only a pure market valuation is considered but also institutional peculiarities (hidden reserves, accounting norms) of German life insurance companies. The possibility of a riskless one-year investment, either based on market values or on balance sheet values, is revealed to be crucial for giving interest rate guarantees on a yearly basis. 相似文献