Market efficiency across securities exchanges

Considerable empirical evidence has been presented in the literature of finance in recent years addressed to the question of the informational efficiency of the American capital market. The present paper adds to that evidence. In particular, securities traded off the NYSE—on the American Stock Exchange, on regional exchanges, and over the counter—are found to exhibit return characteristics that imply rather more frequent price departures from equilibrium than for their NYSE-listed counterparts. The data consist of the actual investment experiences of a large sample of individual investors with securities traded in the various locales.     

Momentum and Autocorrelation in Stock Returns

This article studies momentum in stock returns, focusing onthe role of industry, size, and book-to-market (B/M) factors.Size and B/M portfolios exhibit momentum as strong as that inindividual stocks and industries. The size and B/M portfoliosare well diversified, so momentum cannot be attributed to firm-or industry-specific returns. Further, industry, size, and B/Mportfolios are negatively autocorrelated and cross-seriallycorrelated over intermediate horizons. The evidence suggeststhat stocks covary "too strongly" with each other. I argue thatexcess covariance, not underreaction, explains momentum in theportfolios.     

Executive compensation and the performance of the firm

A sample of large industrial corporations is examined to determine whether there is a relationship between the levels of compensation received by the senior executives of those firms and the firms' economic performances. We find consistent evidence of such a relationship, with differences across firms in the total compensation of their three highest-paid officers being positively related to differences in both the common stock returns and operating profitability of the firms. The implication is that compensation packages are designed to reduce agency costs.     

Corporate growth,corporate strategy,and the choice of capital structure

The interaction between a firm's strategic decisions and its financial policies has become an increasingly frequent topic in the managerial economics literature. We examine here a dimension of that interaction that has not previously been addressed, and suggest a new framework for defining the manner in which choices of strategy and choices of capital structure might be jointly determined, in an environment where upward pressures on factor costs and product prices are the norm.     

Stock returns,aggregate earnings surprises,and behavioral finance

We study the stock market's reaction to aggregate earnings news. Prior research shows that, for individual firms, stock prices react positively to earnings news but require several quarters to fully reflect the information in earnings. We find a substantially different pattern in aggregate data. First, returns are unrelated to past earnings, suggesting that prices neither underreact nor overreact to aggregate earnings news. Second, aggregate returns correlate negatively with concurrent earnings; over the last 30 years, for example, stock prices increased 5.7% in quarters with negative earnings growth and only 2.1% otherwise. This finding suggests that earnings and discount rates move together over time and provides new evidence that discount-rate shocks explain a significant fraction of aggregate stock returns.     

Politicizing consumer credit

Powerful politicians can interfere with the enforcement of regulations. As such, expected political interference can affect constituents’ behavior. Using rotations of Senate committee chairs to identify variation in political power and expected regulatory relief, we study powerful politicians’ effect on consumer lending to communities protected by fair-lending regulations. We find a 7.5% reduction in credit access to minority neighborhoods in states with new committee chairs. Larger reductions occur in Community Reinvestment Act-eligible neighborhoods and when Senators serve on committees that oversee the enforcement of fair-lending laws. Banks headquartered in powerful Senators’ states are responsible for the reduction in credit access.     

Financing decisions when managers are risk averse

Leverage raises stock volatility, driving a wedge between the cost of debt to shareholders and the cost to undiversified, risk-averse managers. I quantify these “volatility costs” of debt and examine their impact on financing decisions. I find that: (1) the volatility costs of debt can be large for executives exposed to firm-specific risk; (2) for a range of empirically relevant parameters, higher option ownership tends to increase, not decrease, the volatility costs of debt; and (3) for managers with stock options, a stock price increase typically raises volatility costs. For a large sample of US firms, I find evidence that volatility costs affect both the level of and short-term changes in debt, and that volatility costs help explain a firm's choice between debt and equity.     

Market-based and accounting standards for public utility rate regulation

The possible usefulness of finance theory in developing appropriate approaches to the regulation of public utility service prices has received considerable attention. Of particular interest has been the matter of cost of capital as a guide to fair rate of return determination. From an underlying concept of the proper goal of regulation—to duplicate for public utility investors the risks and rewards they would be subjected to if their capital were committed to unregulated enterprises—the present paper develops a basis for selecting the correct regulatory approach. That approach is seen to be supportive of traditional accounting-based regulatory commission procedures, and to argue against cost of capital as a return standard.