Exchange Rate Regime and Demand for Reserves: Evidence from Kenya,Mexico and Philippines

This paper empirically investigates the demand for international reserves (and foreign exchange reserves) during fixed and floating exchange rates periods in three developing countries: Kenya, Mexico and Philippines. Based on theoretical models, three factors are identified as important for the demand of international reserves and foreign reserves: average propensity to import, volume of imports and variability of reserves. The paper employs the cointegration methodology and error correction method to investigate the relationships. Cointegration tests results indicate a reliable long-run stationary relationship between the international reserves (and foreign exchange reserves) and the stated explanatory variables across countries and sub-periods of fixed and clean float. The error correction results indicate causality from the explanatory variables to the reserves during both the short and long run. This is true during both the fixed and the floating periods.

Migration and its Determinants: A Study of Two Communities in Colombia

Using data gathered by the author in two communities in Southwestern Colombia, this paper tests a model of migration which incorporates relative deprivation as one of many possible reasons to migrate. The study finds that the product of relative deprivation and family income not only has a sensible interpretation; it is a better predictor of migration than its two component variables alone. Results also show that families with the highest propensities to migrate are those with the most to gain in terms of being better able to reduce relative deprivation through successful migration. These families, however, are neither at the bottom nor at the top of the income distribution in their communities. The study also finds that those most likely to migrate to the USA conform most closely to the immigration policies of the USA.

Trade Costs,Trade Balances and Current Accounts: An Application of Gravity to Multilateral Trade

In this paper we test the well-known hypothesis of Obstfeld and Rogoff (NBER Macroeconomics Annual 7777:339–390, 2000) that trade costs are the key to explaining the so-called Feldstein–Horioka puzzle. Our approach has a number of novel features. First, we focus on the interrelationship between trade costs, the trade account and the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle. Second, we use the gravity model to estimate the effect of trade costs on bilateral trade and, third, we show how bilateral trade can be used to draw inferences about desired trade balances and desired intertemporal trade. Our econometric results provide strong support for the Obstfeld and Rogoff hypothesis and we are also able to reconcile our results with the so-called home bias puzzle.

Output Expectations and Forecasting of UK Manufacturing

This paper analyses both quarterly data from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Survey on respondents’ expectations of recent and forthcoming manufacturing output and monthly Office of National Statistics (ONS) figures on actual manufacturing output within the UK. Quarterly output expectations of the CBI manufacturers are explained from the monthly ONS observations using a bounded rationality approach. The logistic formulation models the diffusion process across respondents. There is a backward-looking CBI Survey perspective, explained by past ONS observations, and a forward-looking perspective, explained from future ONS statistics. Also, the forecasting of monthly manufacturing output from earlier values, along with the quarterly CBI Survey information, is examined and tested against the alternative Pesaran/Thomas method. The study provides econometric evidence for the validity of the logistic model and shows that bounded rationality can explain the formation of predictions among business managers in the UK manufacturing sector. The emerging consensus from the literature, supported by this paper, is that the logistic format is a superior approximation to the true data generating process compared with the earlier standard Anderson/Pesaran/Thomas approach. An adjustment to the Survey is used, which achieves perfect symmetry with up and down versions of the data. The benefits of this adjustment are tested in the forecasting section.

Relative Responsiveness of Bargaining Solutions to Changes in Status-quo Payoffs

It is a well-known fact that several prominent bargaining solutions are responsive to changes in status-quo (i.e., disagreement or fallback) payoffs. When an agent’s status-quo payoff increases, his solution payoff either stays the same or increases. A fully general result for these solutions’ status-quo point ranking is impossible to establish. In this paper, using an important class of bargaining problems, a ranking of the relative status-quo point responsiveness of prominent bargaining solutions is obtained. Using the Constant Elasticity of Substitution class of bargaining problems, regardless of the concavity of the Pareto frontier and the level of increase in one’s status-quo payoff, we find the equal gains solution is the most responsive with respect to changes in status-quo payoffs, followed by the Nash solution. The equal sacrifice solutions is the least responsive, followed by the Kalai/Smorodinsky solution.

The Lack of International Consumption Risk Sharing: Can Inflation Differentials and Trading Costs Help Explain the Puzzle?

The bulk of evidence on the lack of international risk sharing is based on regressions of idiosyncratic consumption growth on idiosyncratic output growth. This paper argues that the results from such regressions obtained from international data are, however, not directly comparable to those based on regional data: the standard practice of running such regressions on international data fails to account for persistent international differentials in consumer prices, whereas—implicitly—most of the literature based on regional data has accounted for these differences. When risk sharing regressions are set up in conceptually the same way in international and regional data sets, the estimated coefficients are also very similar. To explore this result further, we adapt the variance decomposition of Asdrubali et al. (Q J Econ 111:1081–1110, 1996) to allow for deviations from purchasing power parity across countries. While quantity (income and credit) flows are the dominant channel of risk sharing among regions, relative consumption and output price (internal terms of trade) fluctuations account for the bulk of the deviation from the complete markets outcome in international data. To the extent that persistent differences in consumer prices are an indication of goods market segmentation, our findings provide empirical evidence for the proposition by Obstfeld and Rogoff (NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, 2000) that segmented international goods markets rather than asset market incompleteness may account for the (apparent) lack of risk sharing between countries.

Multinationals: Too Many or Too Few?— The Proximity–concentration Trade-off

The paper builds an analytically tractable model that illustrates the “proximity–concentration trade-off” involved in horizontal multinationals. For low trade costs, firms are single-plant firms, for intermediate costs, some are single-plant firms whereas others are multinationals, for large trade costs, firms are multinationals. Because of the modeling strategy, the model is suited for a welfare analysis of multinationals. It shows that too many firms choose to concentrate their production in only one location. Also, for some transport costs, a reduction in transport costs worsens welfare.

网络组织超额利润分配研究

网络组织合作模式能够为网络成员带来超额利润（网络租金）,然而目前关于网络成员如何分配超额利润的问题仍是一个“黑箱”,基于此,本文对网络组织超额利润分配问题进行了探讨。在“最大化馅饼”原则下,超额利润分配存在最优比例,企业所处资源位越高,能分得的份额越高。进一步分析表明,知识溢出难易度可通过影响企业所处资源位影响超额利润分配,较高的知识溢出难度为高资源位企业提供了壁垒效应,强化了其优势地位,使其能分得更多的超额利润。为验证上述假设,本文以《世界企业研发投入排名Top1500》中2007～2011年的企业为样本进行了计量检验。最后提出了相应建议。     

The mean-variance investment problem in a constrained financial market

This paper extends the mean-variance analysis and the two-fund separation theorem to a market with some constraints, such as, the incompleteness, prohibition of short-selling, and partial information, with stochastic interest rate, and with stochastic volatility for risky assets. By maximizing a quadratic utility of terminal wealth, we show that the efficient frontier for the problem is a straight line in the mean-standard-deviation diagram. The quadratic utility function exhibits mean-variance efficiency. Our results apply to portfolios of claims in a single period, multiperiod, and continuous time.