Uncovered Interest Parity at Long Horizons: Evidence on Emerging Economies*

This paper estimates uncovered interest parity (UIP) at long horizons using bilateral US dollar rates vis‐à‐vis mature economy and emerging market currencies. The paper finds support in favor of UIP for dollar rates vis‐à‐vis major mature economy currencies, but far less against emerging market currencies. There are also signs that political risk and the exchange risk premium help explain the empirical failure of UIP for these latter currencies. This suggests that whether UIP holds depends more on the currency than on the horizon.     

Funding a PAYG pension system: the case of Italy

Italy is characterised by a mature pay‐as‐you‐go social security system and by particularly adverse population projections. Given these trends, the social security contribution rate is expected to increase above its current high level. This hinders the development of employer‐provided pension funds and introduces a significant wedge between labour cost and earnings that discourages both labour demand and labour supply. Any proposal to reduce payroll taxes and to reform the system in the direction of partial funding has to cope with the state of Italian public finances. Italy has to comply with the Stability and Growth Pact that imposes constraints on budget deficit and debt trends. Using micro data from the Bank of Italy's Survey of Household Income and Wealth and official population projections, we estimate future employment trends under different demographic and macroeconomic scenarios and compute the cost of the transition. We show that it would be substantially reduced if positive effects on employment were induced by the payroll tax reduction.     

Sources of crime in the state of Veracruz: The role of female labor force participation and wage inequality

Abstract

In recent years, crime has become a serious concern in Mexico as its increase has detrimentally affected government institutions and economic growth. There is considerable speculation among policy analysts about the causes of the increase in crime. Whereas some analysts attribute the increase to a rise in income inequality, others believe internal migration and a loss of morals are the roots of criminal behavior. This research shows that at least for the Mexican state of Veracruz, wage inequality and labor force participation have an important impact on crime. When gender is considered, however, the impact is more complicated than it seems. An increase in women's labor force participation decreases the overall number of alleged violent offenders. However, the number of alleged rapists and grievous bodily harm offenders increases as women's wage distribution improves. The results shed light on the gender dimensions of the economics of crime.     

An application of padé approximation to volatility modeling

This paper studies the dynamic relationship between future volatility and implied and historical volatility using data from Alegría and Rodríguez [1997]. The methodological approach forms part of the theoretical research being carried out in numerical analysis and especially from the rational Padé approximation. This tool helps to characterize simple computational methods in order to study questions about dynamic modelization of doubly infinite series. Considering noncausal series, where the expectations provided by economic theory or empirical evidence are included in available sample data, leads to dynamic specifications suitable not only from the perspective of fitting available data, but also from their predictive performance when compared to traditionally used formulae based merely on data analysis.     

Equilibrium with endogenous technological changes: Theory and applications

In this paper we use a continuous-time general equilibrium model to analyze the problem of evaluating new irreversible investment opportunities that take the form of technological changes. Being a new technology, by definition, not perfectly correlated with the existing ones, the traditional spanning assumption invoked by the Real Option literature is not applicable in this context and a general equilibrium approach provides a more suitable framework. We analyze the problem of optimal consumption and investment of the representative individual in the context of the Cox Ingersoll and Ross (1895) model. We characterize the solution of the model under different assumptions about the utility function of the representative individual and about the parameters describing the technologies in the economy. A major result obtained from the model is the possibility of jumps in the equilibrium rate of return at the time in which technological changes are implemented. This is particularly interesting considering the fact that such jumps are obtained endogenously from the solution of the optimization problem and not imposed by “ad hoc” assumptions on the evolution of some variables.

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Riassunto Un modello di equilibrio economico generale in tempo continuo è utilizzato per analizzare il problema di valutare una nuova, irreversibile, opportunità di investimento che si presenta sotto forma di innovazione tecnologica. Essendo, per definizione, la nuova tecnologia non perfettamente correlata con le tecnologie esistenti, la letteratura delle “opzioni reali” non è applicabile ed un modello di equilibrio economico generale fornisce un ambiente più adatto allo studio del problema. Facendo uso del modello di Cox Ingersoll and Ross (1985) si fornisce una soluzione sotto diverse ipotesi riguardanti la struttura delle preferenze e la natura dell'innovazione tecnologica. Un interessante risultato è la derivazione di possibili discontinuità nel tasso di interesse di equilibrio in corrispondenza dell'adozione della nuova tecnologia.

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I would like to express my gratitude to Vasant Naik, David Peterson, Raman Uppal and especially Burton Hollifield and Tan Wang for helpful discussions and suggestions.     

The “Bologna Process” and college enrollment decisions

We use survey data on high school graduates before and after the Italian reform of tertiary education implementing the “Bologna Process” to estimate its impact on college enrollment. Individuals leaving school after the reform have a probability of enrollment that is 15% higher compared to otherwise identical individuals. This increase is concentrated among individuals with good school performance and low parental background. We interpret this result as an indication of the existence of constraints – for good students from less advantaged households – on the optimal schooling decision. We also find a small negative impact of the reform on university drop-out.     

Why should black-owned businesses hire predominately black labor forces?

In the past, black-owned businesses appear to have hired a predominately black labor force. This article questions if incentives exist for them to continue to do so in the future. Various discrimination incentives are discussed and largely dismissed. It is concluded that the qualifications for gaining access to set-aside contracts and subsidies do provide incentives for black-owned businesses to hire a predominately black labor force.     

Analysis of compensatory financing schemes for export earnings fluctuations in developing countries

Several recent initiatives in the area of compensatory financing have pushed this issue into the forefront of discussion between developed and developing countries. This study performs simulations of various types of compensatory financing schemes assuming they had been in operation during the 1960s and early 1970s and draws some conclusions with respect to the relative costs and benefits of such schemes and with respect to their coutry and regional distribution. The results show that a compensatory financing scheme broadly defined is a flexible financial instrument which can be useful in helping developing countries with export instability problems.     

Multiperiod analysis of a levered portfolio

The notion of Internal Financial Law for an investment is introduced. Through this generalization of the IRR a general notion of outstanding capital is obtained. After the introduction of a generalized version of NPV a decomposition of this parameter is offered which is strictly connected to the notion of ROE.Some applications to yield averaging for portfolios is provided.     

Measuring time-varying financial market integration: An unobserved components approach

We measure the time-varying degree of world stock market integration of five developed countries (Germany, France, UK, US, and Japan) over the period 1970:1–2011:10. Time-varying financial market integration of each country is measured through the conditional variances of the country-specific and common international risk premiums in equity excess returns. The country-specific and common risk premiums and their conditional variances are estimated from a latent factor decomposition through the use of state space methods that allow for GARCH errors. Our empirical results suggest that stock market integration has increased over the period 1970:1–2011:10 in all countries but Japan. And while there is a structural increase in stock market integration in four out of five countries, all countries also exhibit several shorter periods of disintegration (reversals), i.e. periods in which country-specific shocks play a more dominant role. Hence, stock market integration is measured as a dynamic process that is fluctuating in the short run while gradually increasing in the long run.