Estimation of Asymmetric Stochastic Volatility Models: Application to Daily Average Prices of Energy Products

Energy supply and demand, and as a consequence energy prices, are likely to represent one of the biggest challenges of the 21st century. Commodity markets exhibit increased volatility when there is little or no underutilized supply capability to meet natural fluctuations in demand. In the case of energy markets, the large capital requirements and significant lead times associated with energy production and delivery make them more susceptible to the imbalances in supply capability and demand. Energy price volatility has destructive impact on market agents, and this impact is intensified when the prices exhibit asymmetric volatility. This article pursues two aspects of the issue. First we consider general aspects, especially the asymmetric pattern of volatility of daily returns of different types of energy products. Then, we analyze the behaviour of daily returns by using traditional models of volatility that include AGARCH, TGARCH, EGARCH, and ARSV strategies, as well as a threshold asymmetric autoregressive stochastic volatility (TA-ARSV) model that we propose. The energy products considered in this analysis are probably the most relevant energy products for the economic activity of the nations and the economic relations between countries: Crude Oil (OPEC reference basket and London Brent index), Gasoline, Natural Gas, Butane, and Propane. We use spot prices and the time reference ranges from 1986–1993 to 2009 depending on the product.     

INCENTIVES AND SOCIAL NORMS: A MOTIVATION‐BASED ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF SOCIAL NORMS

Abstract It is now commonplace to regard social norms as a subject of growing interest in the economic literature (e.g. game theoretical approaches based on ‘other‐regarding’ individual preferences, the analysis of the impact of rewards or punishment on individuals’ behaviour through experimental economics as well as field experiments, the revival of the institutionalist tradition spurred on by the influential work of Douglas North and followed by many others and the growing influence of neuroeconomics). In this paper, we focus on the relationship between incentives and social norms and survey the literature that could constitute the foundations of a motivation‐based economic analysis of social norms. Our main findings are that (1) the interaction between incentives and social norms is far from obvious since taking social norms into account involves the introduction of supplementary motives, in addition to self‐interest, into the economic analytical framework; (2) the analysis of the interaction between incentives and social norms resists an approach exclusively in terms of crowding‐in and ‐out effects because it is sensitive to whether it concerns behaviours driven by honour or by social stigma; (3) as a result, it is difficult to precisely evaluate the policy implication of the interactions between incentives and social norms.     

Climate threshold,financial hoarding and economic growth

We use an iterative finite difference method to establish theoretical models that reflect the relationships among climate threshold, financial hoarding and economic growth. We build a simultaneous equations model to conduct an empirical analysis based on China’s statistical data from 1979 to 2012. Our study yields the following results: China’s climate threshold has shown a zigzag-shaped rising trend since 1979; the main reasons for the rapid expansion of financial hoarding were high savings rate, savings leakage, higher marginal efficiency of financial hoarding compared to capital efficiency or higher internal creativity of the financial sector; there were positive cumulative effects between financial hoarding and economic growth, which were significantly inhibited by climate threshold; the climate threshold had discrepant influences on different industries. To achieve a balanced economy, more money should be invested in the real sector to appropriately reduce the rate of savings leakage; the financial sector should move from scale expansion to service efficiency improvements to increase its marginal contribution to the economy and to enhance capital efficiency; the real sector should improve technological innovation and speed up the adaptive adjustment in climate-sensitive industries to move from economic growth to advanced development.     

Teaching the history of economic thought

The main purpose of this survey is to present the results of a questionnaire recently sent to historians of economic thought. This questionnaire — presented in the appendix - was devised so as to provide data on the approaches and experiences of teaching the history of economic thought in a wide range of universities throughout the world.

A summary of the most significant results is presented in section 2 of this survey. Section 1 provides a general introduction to the methodological context of the discussion of problems concerning the teaching of the discipline.     

El sistema financiero y su efecto en la dinámica sector privado

In the framework of a closed economy, identical agents, constant returns to scale and introducing a financial market, through a model of endogenous growth the macroeconomic equilibrium is characterized and it is shown that capital distribution is perfect with the existence of an efficient financial market. Nevertheless, the capital distribution is ineffective when the financial market is not efficient, which generates distortions that increase the cost of capital and hence rate of growth decreases. At the same time, a welfare analysis is carried out to verify the impact due to both types of financial markets, an efficient one and an inefficient one.     

Liquidity determination in an order-driven market

We exploit full order level information from an electronic FX broking system to provide a comprehensive account of the determination of its liquidity. We not only look at bid-ask spreads and trading volumes, but also study the determination of order entry rates and depth measures derived from the entire limit order book. We find strong predictability in the arrival of liquidity supply/demand events. Further, in times of low (high) liquidity, liquidity supply (demand) events are more common. In times of high trading activity and volatility, the ratio of limit to market order arrivals is high but order book spreads and depth deteriorate. These results are consistent with market order traders having better information than limit order traders.     

城市供水管网维护抢修工作探讨

城市供水管网维护抢修工作是供水管网安全供水的一项重要工作。因此,如何开展快速、高效的供水管网抢修工作就显得十分重要。缩短抢修时间,提高供水管网的抢修速度,是供水公司每个员工共同关心且急需解决的现实问题。笔者就蚌埠市供水管网维护抢修中的心得和体会与同行共同探讨。     

上海市商业保险密度的影响因素的实证研究

本文根据上海市1980-2007年之间的历史数据,采用多元线性逐步回归方法,构建人口机械增长率、劳保福利费用比例、全市居民消费水平指数、食品在社会消费品零售总额中的比重等自变量与因变量商业保险密度之间的数学模型,并对模型进行统计分析.     

幼儿自我保护能力的调查研究

本文采用结构访谈法,以3-6岁的120名幼儿为研究被试,探讨了幼儿自我保护能力的现状。结果表明,从总体上来看,幼儿自我保护能力良好,从各维度上来看,幼儿的游戏活动自护、意外防护能力较好,生活活动自护能力次之,心理自护能力较差,城乡差异和年级差异在某些维度上也是存在差异的;中班是进行幼儿自我保护教育的关键时期。     

企业规模与货币政策的非对称效应

在金融加速器模型的基础上，本文构建了含有企业异质性的动态随机一般均衡模型，并以此考察了我国货币政策对不同规模企业的非对称效应。研究结果表明，相对于大企业，中小企业更易受到紧缩性货币政策冲击的影响，中小企业产出下降幅度约是大企业的三倍。造成这种非对称效应的主要原因在于中小企业外部融资受到限制。此外，货币政策冲击通过信贷市场放大了经济波动，经济中存在着明显的金融加速器效应现象。因此，央行在制定货币政策时应考虑到货币政策对不同规模企业的非对称效应，并谨慎选择名义利率的调整幅度。