Destination choice and the identity of places: A disaggregated analysis for different types of visitor population environment in the Netherlands

Individual behaviour relates to the ecological structure or identity of places. In this study, we investigated the relationship between the space–time ecologies of different types of visitor population environment in the Netherlands and destination choice. Multinomial logistic regression modelling for car users was applied to determine the relative importance of various personal and household attributes on choosing for a particular purpose a particular type of visitor population environment during a particular time period of the day. The attributes with the strongest link to the space–time ecologies of destination environments proved to be age, educational level, car ownership, and household income and type.     

Stackelberg leadership in a dynamic duopoly with stochastic capital accumulation

I propose a dynamic duopoly model where firms enter simultaneously but compete hierarchically á la Stackelberg at each instant over time. They accumulate capacity through costly investment, with capital accumulation dynamics being affected by an additive shock the mean and variance of which are known. The main findings are the following. First, the Stackelberg game is uncontrollable by the leader; hence, it is time consistent. Second, the leader invests more than the follower; as a result, in the steady state, the leader’s capacity and profits are larger than the follower’s. Therefore, the present analysis does not confirm Gibrat’s Law, since the individual growth rate is determined by the timing of moves.JEL Classification: C61, C73, D43, D92, L13Financial support within the project The post-entry performance of firms: technology, growth and survival lead by Enrico Santarelli, co-financed by the University of Bologna and MIUR, is gratefully acknowledged. I thank Uwe Cantner, Roberto Cellini, Roberto Golinelli, Helen Louri, Enrico Santarelli, Antonello Scurcu, Peter Thompson, two anonymous referees and the audience at the final workshop of the project (Bologna, November 22-23, 2002) for useful comments and discussion. The usual disclaimer applies.     

The Effects of a Federal Flat Tax on Agriculture

This study examines the impact of a federal flat tax on agriculture by determining the tax liability under the current and flat tax systems using actual farm records. The study considers the linkages between agriculture and the rest of the economy by examining the impact of a flat tax on interest rates and capital investment and how those changes would affect agriculture. Results indicate that roughly 63% of agricultural producers would benefit from a flat tax in terms of lowering taxes paid. Under the flat tax, larger farms and more profitable farms would be relatively better off.     

The marketing of hamburger buns: An improved model for prediction

The Spring 1974 issue of this Journal published a paper that presented a model for predicting sales of hamburger buns. This article evaluates the model on the bases of statistical reporting, model specification, and implications for production policy. In addition, using the same data used for the original model, an improved model is developed whereby there is a 50% increase in explained variance.     

Peer group influences on children’s product preferences

In contrast to earlier studies using adult subjects, this experiment with first graders did not f’md a high degree of brand loyalty development in response to a minimally differentiated product. In fact, while some brand preferences did develop, most subjects appeared to seek some degree of variety in their choices. It is interesting to speculate that children have a “greater need for novelty” than adults and are thus less likely to develop brand loyalty. However, extensive research will be required to remove this proposition from the realm of speculation.     

Estimating the financial crisis’ impact on potential output

I use a multivariate Blanchard-Quah decomposition to investigate the financial crisis’ impact on potential output in the Euro area, the US, Japan, and the UK. I detect an impact for all countries, which is especially severe for the UK.     

On the interaction between public and private capital in economic growth

This paper introduces two forms of interaction between private and public capital in an endogenous growth model in which productive government expenditure takes the form of a stock-variable and public capital is used in part as an input in the production of final output and in part to increase its own supply. While the first form of interaction involves the stocks of the two capital-goods and takes place within the final output sector through the specification of the aggregate production function (Cobb?CDouglas vs. CES), the second one concerns the rates of investment in the two kinds of capital. The share of productive public expenditure devoted to output production can be either exogenous or endogenous. Our results suggest that when this share is exogenous, along the balanced growth path the optimal growth rate of the economy is a positive function of the degree of complementarity between the two forms of investment. When the share of productive public expenditure devoted to output production is endogenous, the public capital share in GDP becomes, along with the model??s preference parameters, an important determinant of the economy??s long run growth. We also find that the optimal growth rate is an increasing function of the elasticity of substitution between public and private capital inputs in goods production, and is independent of the complementarity/substitutability between the two forms of investment.     

Ecosystem Service Value and Agricultural Conversion in the Amazon: Implications for Policy Intervention

We explore the welfare implications of agricultural expansion in the Brazilian Amazon by comparing spatially explicit estimates of soybean rents and the value of ecosystem services. Although these estimates are generated from different datasets, models, and estimation techniques, the values are comparable, such that the value of ecosystem services is greater than soybean rents for about 61% of the total area and 24% of the area where soybean rents are positive if protected areas are well enforced. Based on the balance between the benefits and costs of conversion, failure to value ecosystem services reduces total social welfare by 7.13 billion dollars annually relative to an optimum. Policy instruments that internalize the value of ecosystem services via protected lands, land conversion taxes, conservation subsidies, or excise taxes can avoid much of this loss. Regardless of intervention regime, policy makers should be cognizant of the diminishing net benefits of converting natural ecosystems to agriculture. Realizing the final 3.8% requires the conversion of an additional 15% natural ecosystems to soybean production.