Fiscal consolidation in Germany

The German federal government’s fiscal consolidation package, announced in June, is designed to permanently reduce the federal deficit to a new target level. This article uses a three-region version of the European Commission’s QUEST model to gauge the impact of the package on Germany and the spillover to the rest of the euro area and the rest of the world.     

The gains from variety in the European Union

Over the last decade, European Union members have experienced a steady increase in imports. This increase was accompanied by a strong growth in the number of imported goods and trading partners, suggesting positive welfare gains for consumers via an extended set of consumption possibilities, as pointed out in the ??New Trade Theory??. In this paper, we apply the methodology developed by Feenstra (Am Econ Rev 84(1):157?C177, 1994) and Broda and Weinstein (Q J Econ 121(2):541?C585, 2006) to structurally estimate the gains from imported variety for the 27 countries of the European Union using highly disaggregated trade data at the CN-8 level from Eurostat for the period from 1999 to 2008. Our results show that, within the European Union, especially ??newer?? and smaller member states exhibit high gains from newly imported varieties. Furthermore, we find that the majority of the gains from variety for consumers stems from intra-European Union trade.     

Budgetary-Neutral Fiscal Policy Rules and External Adjustment

Large external imbalances and fragile fiscal positions have emerged as major policy challenges for the euro area in the financial crisis. The paper analyses whether shifting government purchases between tradable and non-tradable goods could help reduce external fluctuations without large swings in the overall fiscal stance. The policy rules considered are budgetary-neutral in the sense that the overall level of government expenditure is kept constant. We compare the policy rules to fiscal devaluation as a strategy to reduce external imbalances and find that state-dependent changes in the composition of government purchases between tradables and non-tradables can stabilise excessive fluctuations in the event of economy-wide supply and demand shocks. Contrary to fiscal devaluation, the expenditure-shifting rule faces a trade-off between stabilising domestic activity and enhancing household welfare, on the one hand, and reducing excessive fluctuations in external positions, on the other hand. The excess volatility of domestic variables associated less volatility in the external position implies welfare losses for standard specifications of household utility. The adverse welfare effect is absent in the case of fiscal devaluation.     

The advantages of a small European Monetary Union

The question whether European Monetary Union should include all the EC countries from the start or should initially be limited to a few core countries is again being discussed more intensely. What advantages would a small EMU have from an economic point of view? Which countries should be its founder members?     

Internal trade,productivity and interconnected industries: A quantitative analysis

Does trade within a country affect welfare and productivity? What are the magnitude and consequences of costs to such trade? To answer these questions, we exploit unique Canadian data to measure internal trade costs in a variety of ways—they are large and vary across sectors and provinces. To quantify their consequences for welfare and productivity, we use a recent multi‐sector trade model featuring rich input–output relationships. We find interprovincial trade is an important contributor to Canada's GDP and welfare, though there are significant costs to such trade. Reducing interprovincial trade costs by 10% yields aggregate gains of 0.9%; eliminating our preferred estimates of costs, gains average between 3% and 7%—equivalent to real GDP gains between $50 billion and $130 billion. Finally, as policy reforms are often sector specific, we liberalize sectors one at a time and find gains are largest in highly interconnected industries.     

Estimating stochastic volatility: the rough side to equity returns

Decisions in Economics and Finance - This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of a Brownian semi-stationary (BSS) process in modelling the volatility of 21 equity indices. We implement a...     

Export planning orientation and its antecedents: Evidence from exporting IT products

There is strong support in the export literature for a positive relationship between export planning and export performance. However, little is known about the drivers of export planning. In addressing this knowledge gap, this article proposes that export planning is usefully analyzed in terms of a managerial orientation. Regarding the antecedents of export planning orientation, the focus here is on the role of factors internal to the firm, especially its exporting mindset (export necessity and export commitment). This article also examines to what extent export confidence (psychic distance and marketing advantage) moderates the relationship. The empirical results show that export commitment has a strong and positive effect on a firm's export planning orientation. This relationship is moderated by psychic distance and marketing advantage. Specifically, the results show that the greater the psychic distance and the weaker the marketing advantage, the stronger the relationship between export commitment and a firm's export planning orientation. The results also show that management's perceived export necessity has a negative effect on a firm's export planning orientation and that this relationship remains unaffected by psychic distance and marketing advantage.     

Shareholder Value: Principles, Declarations, and Actions

This paper is about shareholder value. We examine whether welfare considerations justify that target and whether competitive markets force firms to pursue it. We also argue that shareholder value is strictly an ill-defined goal. We report evidence from a large sample of listed firms across the world that many managers do not even mention shareholders in their mission statements. However, firms that do disclose a commitment to shareholders seem to perform better in terms of stock price and operating performance.