The market price of fiscal uncertainty

Recent fiscal interventions have raised concerns about US public debt, future distortionary tax pressure, and long-run growth potential. We explore the long-run implications of public financing policies aimed at short-run stabilization when: (i) agents are sensitive to model uncertainty, as in Hansen and Sargent (2007), and (ii) growth is endogenous, as in Romer (1990). We find that countercyclical deficit policies promoting short-run stabilization reduce the price of model uncertainty at the cost of significantly increasing the amount of long-run risk. Ultimately these tax policies depress innovation and long-run growth and may produce welfare losses.     

Whose trades convey information? Evidence from a cross-section of traders

This paper contributes empirically to our understanding of informed traders. It analyzes traders’ characteristics in a foreign exchange electronic limit order market via anonymous trader identities. We use six indicators of informed trading in a cross-sectional multivariate approach to identify traders with high price impact. More information is conveyed by those traders’ trades which—simultaneously—use medium-sized orders (practice stealth trading), have large trading volume, are located in a financial center, trade early in the trading session, at times of wide spreads and when the order book is thin.     

Implementing Fischer Black's Simple Discounting Rule

Corporate managers typically estimate the value of capital projects by discounting the project's expected future net cash flows at the cost of capital. The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is generally used to estimate that cost. But, as anyone who has worked on the finance or business development staff of a public company can attest, there are major challenges in applying the CAPM, including largely unresolved questions about what constitutes the “market portfolio,” how to estimate market risk premiums, and how to estimate the betas of projects. In a short article published in Financial Management in 1988, Fischer Black proposed a valuation “discounting rule” that avoids all these problems—one that involves discounting a relatively certain (as opposed to an expected or average) level of operating cash flows at the risk-free rate. But Black's article does not address the question of how to calculate these “certainty equivalent” or “conditional” cash flows. In this article, the authors propose a way of implementing Black's rule that involves estimating the “conditional” cash flows in a three-step procedure:

• • Find a benchmark security that correlates with the project's cash flows;
• • Estimate the percentiles of the distribution in which the benchmark return equals the risk-free rate over different investment horizons;
• • Use information from corporate managers to assess the cash flows that define the same percentiles in the cash flow distributions.

As the authors point out, the virtue of Black's rule is that it shifts the focus of the analyst away from the assessment of discount factors and puts it squarely on the more challenging, and arguably more relevant, problem of estimating the project's cash flows.     

Navigating Rough Waters: Global Shipping and Challenges for the North Range Ports

Intereconomics - Ports and shipping have been in the spotlight in 2021 with surging demand, skyrocketing freight rates and week-long queues. This development stands against the background of the...     

The advantages of a small European Monetary Union

The question whether European Monetary Union should include all the EC countries from the start or should initially be limited to a few core countries is again being discussed more intensely. What advantages would a small EMU have from an economic point of view? Which countries should be its founder members?     

Export planning orientation and its antecedents: Evidence from exporting IT products

There is strong support in the export literature for a positive relationship between export planning and export performance. However, little is known about the drivers of export planning. In addressing this knowledge gap, this article proposes that export planning is usefully analyzed in terms of a managerial orientation. Regarding the antecedents of export planning orientation, the focus here is on the role of factors internal to the firm, especially its exporting mindset (export necessity and export commitment). This article also examines to what extent export confidence (psychic distance and marketing advantage) moderates the relationship. The empirical results show that export commitment has a strong and positive effect on a firm's export planning orientation. This relationship is moderated by psychic distance and marketing advantage. Specifically, the results show that the greater the psychic distance and the weaker the marketing advantage, the stronger the relationship between export commitment and a firm's export planning orientation. The results also show that management's perceived export necessity has a negative effect on a firm's export planning orientation and that this relationship remains unaffected by psychic distance and marketing advantage.     

The effect of market orientation on product innovation

Numerous scholars have debated whether marketing fosters or stifles innovation. The discussions, however, have been inconclusive due to limited empirical evidence. The authors investigate the relationship between two focal constructs in the debate: market orientation and product innovation. On the basis of a sample of U.S. manufacturing companies, the authors’ analysis shows that product innovation varies with market orientation. Specifically, (1) customer orientation increases the introduction of new-to-the-world products and reduces the launching of me-too products, (2) competitor orientation increases the introduction of me-too products and reduces the launching of line extensions and new-to-the-world products, and (3) interfunctional coordination increases the launching of line extensions and reduces the introduction of me-too products. Bryan A. Lukas is a senior lecturer in marketing at the University of Melbourne, Australia. His research interests are in the areas of strategic marketing and strategic innovation. His publications have appeared in theJournal of Business Research and other journals. Two conference papers have received recognition from the American Marketing Association. O. C. Ferrell is a professor of marketing at Colorado State University. He has served as president of the Academic Council of the American Marketing Association and is a fellow of the Society for Marketing Advances and Southwest Marketing Association. His publications have appeared in theJournal of Marketing, theJournal of Marketing Research theJournal of the Academy of Marketing Science, theJournal of Public Policy & Marketing, theJournal of Business Research, as well as others. He has co-authored 17 books and more than 100 articles and proceedings’ publications. He has worked as a consultant with organizations such as General Motors, Emerson Electric, and the Water Quality Association.     

Effiziente Finanzmärkte und soziale Dynamik

This year’s Nobel laureates in economics have a different understanding about the functioning of financial markets. However, this overall contradiction — which is even more pronounced in their policy statements — is no contradiction regarding scientific insights. In this respect they rather complement each other, even regarding the topic of (in)efficient financial markets.