Quantifying the uncertainty about the half‐life of deviations from PPP

We propose a Bayesian framework in which the uncertainty about the half‐life of deviations from purchasing power parity can be quantified. Based on the responses to a survey study, we propose a prior probability distribution for the half‐life under the recent float intended to capture widely held views among economists. We derive the posterior probability distribution of the half‐life under this consensus prior and confirm the presence of substantial uncertainty about the half‐life. We provide for the first time a comprehensive formal evaluation of several nonnested hypotheses of economic interest, including Rogoff's ( 1996 ) claim that the half‐life is contained in the range of 3 to 5 years. We find that no hypothesis receives strong support from the data. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A network approach to strategy

The task of environmental analysis has a key role to play in formulating strategy and the strategic management process. How the process should be organised, however, depends largely on the theoretical perspective applied to both the nature of the business environment, and a corresponding understanding of strategic action within that environment. The objective of this paper is to develop a strategic analysis framework which incorporates the theoretical propositions in the markets-as-network model. The Swiss energy industry is used to provide the context to illustrate the framework's application. Finally we examine what it contributes to moving the markets-as-network model towards the explanatory level of inquiry.     

New Keynesian perspectives on labor market dynamics

We find that demand shocks play an important role for business-cycle fluctuations in unemployment and job vacancies. The reason is that those shocks give a strong incentive to demand-constrained firms to adjust production and thereby labor input. Furthermore we argue that whether real wage rigidity à la Hall [2005. Employment fluctuations with equilibrium wage stickiness. American Economic Review 95, 50–65] helps explain the remaining part of the unemployment volatility puzzle depends critically on assumptions regarding the form of the wage bargain between firms and workers. Real wage rigidity tends to generate volatility in employment only in the case in which hours are chosen efficiently. If, on the other hand, the real wage is allowed to affect firms's choices of hours directly, the feature of real wage rigidity loses its ability to increase employment volatility.     

Who hedges more when leverage is endogenous? A testable theory of corporate risk management under general distributional conditions

This paper develops a theory of a firm’s hedging decision with endogenous leverage. In contrast to previous models in the literature, our framework is based on less restrictive distributional assumptions and allows a closed-form analytical solution to the joint optimization problem. Using anecdotal evidence of greater benefits of risk management for firms selling “credence goods” or products that involve long-term relationships, we prove that those optimally leveraged firms, which face more convex indirect bankruptcy cost functions, will choose higher hedge ratios. Moreover, we suggest a new approach to test this relationship empirically.

Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?

Recent empirical evidence suggests that the time series behavior of the real exchange rate is well approximated by a nonlinear, exponential smooth transition autoregressive (ESTAR) model. This nonlinearity helps resolve a number of puzzles concerning the persistence and volatility of real exchange rates. In this paper, we explore whether it may also help resolve the well-known difficulties of exchange rate forecasting. We develop a bootstrap test of the random walk hypothesis of the nominal exchange rate, given ESTAR real exchange rate dynamics. We find strong evidence of predictability at horizons of 2 to 3 years, but not at shorter horizons.     

Multi-Criteria Analysis of Grid Expansion Concepts on the Low Voltage Level

In recent years, the power generation and consumption in Germany have undergone fundamental changes. New political regulations and the renewable energy law have resulted in a sharp increase in the installed generation capacities of photovoltaics connected to a low voltage grid. Distribution system operators are faced with the challenge of preventing grid component overload as well as a violation of voltage range. Due to increasing requirements of grid expansion in future years, distribution system operators must evaluate new expansion concepts compared to conventional ones. One interesting approach is the installation of Voltage Regulated Distribution Transformers (VRDT) regulating the voltage level of distribution grids. In this paper, the local network of one of the largest German distribution system operators is analysed in the context of future requirements for grid expansion using the conventional and VRDT expansion. Grid structures have grown over the last decades and therefore vary widely in their grid topologies. A classification of the entire grid in a few classes results in high inaccuracies. Therefore, the creation of synthetic grid structures is developed for the calculation of the required network extension. In addition, both grid expansion concepts are evaluated not only for financial aspects, but against environmental, economic, technological, and social dimensions using a multi-criteria decision making approach. The study shows a high market potential for VRDTs in low voltage grids with an increasing enforcement level of photovoltaics.     

Outsourcing, supply chain upgrading and connectedness of a firm's competencies

While planning and implementing outsourcing initiatives, firms often wish to isolate outsourcing to a neatly defined area. However, experiences show that such isolation sometimes fails with detrimental effects for the outsourcing firm. This paper focuses on supply chain upgrading and the connectedness of a firm's competencies. Based on a case study, frameworks are illustrated and managerial implications and further research areas are identified. The paper contributes to the outsourcing discussion with an analytical tool useful for planning and monitoring outsourcing initiatives.     

Trade credit use and competition in the value chain

Trade credit is a major source of finance in value chains in developed and emerging economies. Despite its ubiquitous use, this is one of the first empirical studies that analyzes why the use of trade credit varies along the value chain. We argue that competition faced by firms at different stages in the value chain and enforcement mechanisms that stimulate repayment jointly determine the use of trade credit. We distinguish two dimensions of competition, that is, rivalry and customer bargaining power. Competition may stimulate firms to provide trade credit to keep customers from switching to other suppliers. Yet, high contract enforcement costs relative to the value of the transactions, reduce the willingness to offer trade credit. We find empirical evidence showing that competition does not (strongly) influence the use of trade credit in the retail market, whereas it does in the markets for wholesalers and millers. We interpret these results as suggestive evidence that the retail, wholesale and milling market segments differ in terms of the enforcement costs involved in the provision of trade credit. Rivalry at the retail market segment makes switching easy for customers, even in case of default. As enforcement of repayment in this market segment is difficult and costly, trade credit appears to be a risky and less attractive marketing instrument for retailers. In contrast, in the wholesale and milling market segment, trade credit is widespread as stakeholders know each other, making informal mechanisms effective in supporting the enforcement of trade credit repayment.     

Investor Relations-Performance Monitor

Unternehmen sehen sich unter anderem aufgrund der Globalisierung der Kapitalm?rkte mit steigenden Anforderungen der Kapitalgeber konfrontiert. Diesen werden sie jedoch, wie verschiedene Studien zeigen, bei weitem nicht immer gerecht. Ziel des vorliegenden Beitrags ist zum einen die konzeptionelle Erarbeitung eines Anforderungskatalogs an eine effiziente Kapitalmarktkommunikation und zum anderen die Gestaltung eines Instruments zur überwachung der Leistungsf?higkeit der Investor Relations (IR)-Arbeit. Ein solches Instrument zur Leistungsmessung kann dann als Grundlage für eine leistungsorientierte Entlohnung oder auch für Budgetierungsentscheidungen im IR-Bereich dienen.