Die theorie der effektiven protektion

Summary The Theory of Effective Protection. — This paper offers a comprehensive presentation of the actual position of the theory of effective protection. It is shown that the concept of measurement suggested in connection with this theory rests upon a partial view and that the height and meaning of effective protection rates may change when a conception of general equilibrium is introduced. Further, widenings of the concept are discussed and suggestions made as to how indirect taxes and non-marketable inputs can be taken into consideration. Problems of imperfect competition, especially of the differentiation of products, and of the existence of redundant or prohibitive protection measures are also treated. Finally, a comprehensive analysis of the indicativeness of effective protection rates is given. In the case of constant input coefficients, it is possible, with the aid of protection rates and within the limits generally observed in price theory, to explain changes in the structure of gross production. In the case of variable input coefficients, the same is possible if the substitution effects can be integrated into the measuring concept. This would seem to be an empirical rather than a theoretical problem. Effective protection rates cannot — as has been suggested — serve to measure comparative cost advantages. At most, they indicate differences in cost caused by the protective system. For purposes of ascertaining the discrimination of foreign industries, calculation of the effective protection rate should start from nominal, not from realized customs. Applied to individual investment projects, the effective protection rate is able to help in estimating their value from the point of view of national economy.

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Resumen La teoria de protección efectiva. — El présente artículo ofrece una revista general del estado actual de la teorfa de la tasa efectiva de protección. En primer lugar se demuestra que el concepto propuesto se basa en un enfoque partial, de manera que el nivel y el significado de las tasas efectivas de protección pueden ser otros si se analizan dentro de un marco de equilibrio general. A continuación los autores discuten ampliaciones del concepto básico y hacen propuestas para la consideración de impuestos indirectes y de inputs no comercializables internacionalmente. Además, estudian los problemas que resultan de una competencia imperfecta (particularmente en relación con la diferenciación entre productos) así como de la existencia de medidas de protección redundantes y prohibitivas. Finalmente, se analiza el significativo de las tasas efectivas de protección. Los autores mantienen que, bajo el supuesto de que los coeficientes de inputs sean constantes, las tasas efectivas permiten (con las limitaciones usuales en la teoria de precios) conclusiones sobre variaciones en la estructura de la producción bruta. Esto es posible también si los coeficientes de inputs se consideran variables, siempre y cuando que se introduzcan los efectos de sustitución en el concepto de medición, lo cual, más que un problema teorico, es un problema estadístico. Al contrario de lo que a menudo se afirma, las tasas efectivas de protección no sirven para determinar los costos comparativos de un pais; en el mejor de los casos se prestan a la evaluación de las diferencias en los costos comparativos provocados por el sistema de protección. Si se desea conocer el grado de discriminación de industrias extranjeras, la medición de las tasas efectivas de protección deberá partir de los aranceles nominales y no de los aranceles realmente utilizados. Con relación a proyectos de inversión singulares, las tasas efectivas de protección ofrecen una ayuda de decisión en el momento de evaluar dentro de un marco macroeconómico la importancia de aquellos proyectos.

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Résumé La théorie de protection efficace. — Cet article présente une étude complète de la position actuelle de la théorie de protección efficace. On y prouve que le concept de mesurage proposé dans cette théorie repose sur une vue partielle et que le montant et la signification des taux de protección efficace peuvent changer quand on envisage l’équilibre général. Ensuite, on examine l’élargissement du concept de mesurage, tout en proposant des manières de tenir compte des imp?ts indirects et des inputs non-vendables. Sont discutés aussi les problèmes de la concurrence imparfaite, spécialement ceux de la différentiation des produits, et de l’existence de mesures de protección redondantes ou prohibitives. Finalement, on fait l’analyse générale du pouvoir indicatif des taux de protección efficace. Quand les coefficients de l’input sont constants, on peut, à l’aide des taux de protección — dans les limites généralement observées dans la théorie des prix — expliquer les changements de structure de la production brute. Quand les coefficients de l’input sont variables, la même chose est possible, si l’on peut intégrer les effects de substitution dans le concept de mesurage. Ce qui parait être un problème empirique plut?t qu’un problème théorique. Les taux de protección efficace ne peuvent pas — comme on l’a prétendu — servir pour mesurer les avantages comparatifs du co?t. Tout au plus, ils indiquent les différences de co?t causées par le système de protección. Si l’on veut conna?tre la discrimination des industries étrangères, il faut que le calcul des taux de protección efficace parte des tarifs douaniers nominaux et non pas des tarifs réalisés. Appliqué à des projets individuels d’investissement, le taux de protection efficace peut aider à juger de la valeur de ces projets pour l’économie nationale.

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Riassunto La teoria della protezione efiettiva. — Questo articolo d à una vasta esposizione dell’odierna situazione della teoria della protezione effettiva. Viene mostrato che nel quadro di questa teoria l’abbozzo di misurazione proposto poggia su una considerazione parziale e che altezza e capacit à assertiva delle rate efiettive di protezione possono mutare in una considerazione generale d’equilibrio. Quindi sono discussi ampliamenti dell’abbozzo e fatte proposte per la considerazione di imposte indirette come anche di ?input? non commerciabili. Inoltre viene abbordato il problema della concorrenza imperfetta, in particolare della differenziazione della produzione, come anche dell’esistenza di provvedimenti ridondanti e proibitivi di protezione. Una vasta analisi della capacità assertiva di rate efifettive di protezione costituisce la conclusione. In coefficienti fissi di ?input?, con l’aiuto delle rate di protezione e con le limitazioni comunemente in uso nella teoria dei prezzi, sono possibili asserzioni sul mutamento della struttura produttiva lorda. In coefficienti variabili di ?input? sono possibili le stesse asserzioni se gli effetti di sostituzione possono essere integrati nell’abbozzo di misurazione. Questo dovrebbe essere piú un problema empirico che teorico. Rate effettive di protezione (REP) non possono servire — corne ripetutamente si sostiene — da criterio di vantaggi comparativi dei costi, ma indicare nel migliore dei casi, per mezzo del sistema di protezione, causate differenze comparative dei prezzi. Per l’accertamento della discriminazione di industrie straniere, nel calcolo delle REP, bisogna partire dai dazi nominali e non da quelli utilizzati. Riferite a singoli progetti, le REP sono adatte ad essere di aiuto decisivo per la valutazione economica generale di progetti d’investizione.

     

Green light for greener supply

The supply chain management function is currently undergoing a dramatic change: it is adopting an increasingly strategic role. However, this growing financial importance is matched in only a handful of exemplary companies by a greater contribution to environmental protection initiatives in the supply chain. This paper explores some of the obstacles to greater supply chain management involvement in environmental protection and offers suggestions for greener supply. At a personal level, the gap between public opinion on the environment and managerial values needs to be closed, and the support offered by management education and by professional bodies needs to be improved. Within the organisation, the reward structure for supply chain managers needs to move away from narrow economic criteria. Greener supply would also benefit from a larger supply chain management role in corporate strategy making; the function could even be offered a seat on the Board of Management. Changes to the mode of supply chain management, including improvements to the information flow on environmental issues, the decision–making tools used in the face of complex environmental challenges and novel approaches to supply chain management need to receive urgent attention.     

Probabilistic Population Projections for India with Explicit Consideration of the Education-Fertility Link

Among the different sources of uncertainty in population forecasting, uncertain changes in the structure of heterogeneous populations have received little attention so far, although they can have significant impacts. Here we focus on the effect of changes in the educational composition of the population on the overall fertility of the population in the presence of strong fertility differentials by education. With data from India we show that alternative paths of future female enrolment in education result in significantly different total fertility rates (TFR) for the country over the coming decades, even assuming identical fertility trends within each education group. These results from multi-state population projections by education are then translated into a fully probabilistic population projection for India in which the results of alternative education scenarios are assumed to expand the uncertainty range of the future TFR in the total population.
This first attempt to endogenize structural change with respect to education—which is the greatest measurable source of fertility heterogeneity in Asia—has resulted from a larger exercise of the Asian MetaCentre for Population and Sustainable Development Analysis to collect empirical information, scientific arguments as well as informed opinions about likely future population trends in Asia from a large number of population experts in the region. In this process, future changes in the educational composition of the population have been identified as a key driver of future fertility.
The actual probabilistic population projections for India show that with high certainty, the Indian population will continue to grow to about 1.3 billion over the next quarter of a century. After that the uncertainty will get much wider, ranging from a continued strong increase to the beginning of a population decline in India.     

East German labour market in transition: segmentation and increasing disparity

The employment system of the former GDR–like that of other socialist countries–could be seen as an aggregation of ‘internal labour markets’ with long term employment, internal promotion and little external mobility. Consequently the rapid integration of the East German economy into the western market economy has led to structural problems of the labour market which combined with and intensified the general effects of the sharp decrease in the demand for labour.     

The intergenerational persistence of lifetime earnings

This paper proposes a new method for estimating the intergenerational persistence of lifetime earnings from data that contain only short sections of individual earnings histories. The approach infers lifetime earnings persistence from the persistence of short earnings averages together with information about the stochastic process governing individual earnings. I find that lifetime earnings are substantially more persistent than previous estimates based on short panel data suggest. About 54% of lifetime earnings differences between fathers persist into their sons’ generation. This persistence estimate exceeds previous estimates based on five-year earnings averages by one third. These findings are robust against alternative assumptions about the data generating process for earnings.     

Vertical product differentiation and entry deterrence

I study how a potential entrant influences quality in a model of vertical product differentiation with quality-dependent production costs. With identical costs, the incumbent will always deter entry if possible, i.e., if fixed costs are high. Quality will be set at a level lower than or equal to the optimal quality under either duopoly or monopoly. Results are completely different when the entrant has substantially lower costs. They are explained by the relative location of the entrant's quality best response to the incumbent's optimal quality choice in monopoly. This sheds new light on the influence of industrial policy on market conduct.     

Who hedges more when leverage is endogenous? A testable theory of corporate risk management under general distributional conditions

This paper develops a theory of a firm’s hedging decision with endogenous leverage. In contrast to previous models in the literature, our framework is based on less restrictive distributional assumptions and allows a closed-form analytical solution to the joint optimization problem. Using anecdotal evidence of greater benefits of risk management for firms selling “credence goods” or products that involve long-term relationships, we prove that those optimally leveraged firms, which face more convex indirect bankruptcy cost functions, will choose higher hedge ratios. Moreover, we suggest a new approach to test this relationship empirically.