Models for truncated counts

This paper examines a class of maximum-likelihood regression estimators for count data from truncated samples. Estimators for the truncated Poisson and negative binomial distributions are illustrated. Simulation results are given to illustrate the magnitude of the bias that may result from the failure to account for overdispersion in truncated samples. An empirical application based upon the number of recreational fishing trips taken by a sample of Alaskan fishermen is provided.     

In Search of the Right Stuff:

ABSTRACT This paper explores a topic of much speculation but relatively little empirical investigation: How those in charge of recruiting and hiring new employees assess the advantages and disadvantages of various recruiting techniques. We also examine how organizational characteristics shape hiring managers'perceptions of the primary advantages and disadvantages of recruiting techniques. A sample of hiring managers in a major metropolitan labor market identified the primary advantage of informal recruiting to be the quality of applicants and of formal recruiting to be the volume of applicants. Our analysis also shows that hiring managers in smaller firms and in the private sector more often cite quality as an advantage of informal recruiting, while hiring managers in the public sector more often identify volume of applicants as an advantage of formal recruiting.     

ELECTRONIC DISSEMINATION EXPERIENCES OF THE U.S. BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

This paper describes the experiences of the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) in the electronic dissemination of its statistical products. Section I describes the institutional setting. Section 11, the heart of the paper, is based on a review BEA recently undertook with a view to improving its procedures and policies for disseminating its information to the public. Section III draws conclusions from the review and raises some questions as a basis for comparisons among agencies.     

Excess market value,market power,and inside ownership structure

This study is an empirical investigation of whether principal-agent problems do in fact significantly affect corporate managers' decision making, and hence the price of the firms' securities. If inside ownership structure of firms is reflected in firm market value, then agency theory leads one to expect that market value will be a positive function of the degree of inside ownership. This study demonstrates that rational investors recognize inside ownership and its resultant effect on market value. Furthermore, it is shown that excess market value as measured by the Tobin's Q-ratio is related to the level of advertising and R&D expenditure, the degree of market power as proxied by the Lerner Index, leverage, and firm size.     

Fisheries Management Under Cyclical Population Dynamics

Cycles in environmental conditions (e.g., sea-surface temperature) directly impact fish growth. This paper extends the classical Gordon-Schaefer fishery model by replacing the constant growth rate with a cyclical growth rate. The optimal harvest rate is shown to fluctuate, but the cycle of the harvest rate lags the cycle of the biological growth function with the highest harvest rate occurring after biological conditions start to decline. Simulations contrast various fishing policies and illustrate the proclivity to crash a fishery if it is wrongfully managed as if there is a constant growth rate with i.i.d. environmental shocks. Finally, we show that small cyclical fluctuations in one species can result in large fluctuations in the optimal harvest rate of another species if the fish species are interlinked through predator-prey relationships.      

MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT AND POVERTY IN AFRICA: AN EMERGING PICTURE

The view that macroeconomic adjustment disproportionately hurtsthe poor in Africa has become commonplace. The popular mediaand the nongovernmental aid community frequently express thisview in critiques of Bankfunded economic reform programs. Yetthe evidence on which the claim has been based is flimsy andanecdotal. The emergence of more convincing data, from detailedhousehold surveys in Africa, provides an opportunity to setthe record straight. The evidence from six African countries reviewed in this articledemonstrates that poverty was more likely to decline in thosethat improved their macroeconomic balances than in those thatdid not. The critical factor is economic growth: the economygrew more rapidly and poverty declined faster in countries thatimproved macroeconomic balances, depreciating the real effectiveexchange rate. Changes in the real exchange rate also immediatelyand favorably affected rural incomes, benefiting the poor bothdirectly and indirectly. But the findings also highlighted threecauses for policy concern. First, many African governments haveyet to display a real commitment to macroeconomic reform; second,the poorest of the poor have not benefited from recent growthin some countries; and, third, the prospects for the poor arenot rosy unless there is more investment in human capital andbetter targeting of social spending.      

Three-dimensional representation of company business and investigational activities

This paper describes a management aid devised to illustrate the inter-relationships between present company business activities and the investigational activities of the various company R&D functions. It is based on the- construction of a three-dimensional model in which the raw material, process and market parameters are the axes. Use of the model can facilitate project definition and selection in R and D departments and can be extended as a management aid in studies of R & D resource allocation and acquisition studies.