Demystifying the Meese–Rogoff puzzle: structural breaks or measures of forecasting accuracy?

Structural breaks have been suggested by several economists as a possible explanation for the Meese–Rogoff puzzle, in the sense that an exchange rate model can outperform the random walk in terms of the out-of-sample forecasting error if the period under investigation is free of structural breaks. The results indicate that structural breaks cannot explain the inability of the flexible price monetary model to outperform the random walk. The only plausible explanation for the Meese–Rogoff puzzle is that forecasting accuracy is traditionally assessed by magnitude-only measures. When forecasting accuracy is assessed by alternative measures that do not rely exclusively on the magnitude of error, the monetary model can outperform the random walk regardless of the presence or otherwise of structural breaks.     

Applying Target Costing in the Development of Marketable and Environmentally Friendly Products from Swine Waste

Management of swine waste generated in the United States is a challenging problem facing engineers, farmers, scientists, regulators, and policy-makers. Technologies for processing and storing swine waste have not been fully developed and refined in a manner acceptable to the public and environmental regulators. The primary concerns with improperly disposed swine waste are the effects on human and livestock health, surface and groundwater quality, air quality, and conservation of nitrogen fertilizers (Hagenstein 2003 Hagenstein, P. R. 2003. Air Emissions from Animal Feeding Operations: Current Knowledge, Future Needs, Washington, D. C.: National Research Council, National Academy Press.  [Google Scholar]).

The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the concept of target costing by applying it to a very specific example: the production of biomethanol from swine manure. This study summarizes the analyses that outline a design and calculate a preliminary cost estimate for a proposed system for producing biomethanol from swine manure (initial process). In this study the target costing process is demonstrated with calculation of a target cost. This article also demonstrates an application of value engineering as a systematic, interdisciplinary examination of factors affecting the cost of a product so as to find means to fulfill the product's specified purpose at the required standards of quality and reliability and at an acceptable cost.

The article is organized as follows. First, the purpose of applying target costing methodology to the development of marketable by-products from swine manure is outlined. Next, target cost is calculated for biomethanol made from swine manure based on current methanol prices and currently available subsidies for biomethanol made from swine manure. A system for producing biomethanol from swine manure is described. The current cost is calculated for producing biomethanol. Concepts of value engineering are employed to reduce a significant cost component of the initial process resulting in Process II. Finally, value engineering is employed the second time to further reduce the cost of Process II yielding Process III.     

The link between hunting goals and strategy and harvest outcome

Abstract

This article explores relationships among hunting goals, hunting strategies, and harvest success and attempts to assess if and how the relationships between harvest and nonharvest goals and harvest outcomes change in the presence of selected intervening hunting strategy variables. Log‐linear analysis examines the relationship among harvest outcome, hunting goals, and hunting strategies. Hunting strategies were found helpful in explaining the patterns of harvest outcome, suggesting that how a person hunts may be as important as why they hunt. Hunting strategy is seen as a viable concept for use in future investigations.     

Modeling Student Subject Choice at Secondary and Tertiary Level: A Cross-Section Study

Cross-section data on secondary level student choices provide evidence on factors influencing the decision to study economics. Such evidence makes a key contribution to the broader debates on why student numbers have been falling in economics and why women are reluctant economists. Greater mathematical aptitude and prior knowledge of the subject influence the decision to study economics, and a significant effect is attributable to relative underachievement in economics. There are also significant peer group and teacher effects. Female students are more likely to study economics when there is a critical mass of women studying the subject. There is a positive role model effect of female teachers—although this does not carry over to the decision to continue with economics at the university.     

New development: Spin-outs and social enterprise: the ‘right to request’ programme for health and social care services

The ‘right to request’ policy encouraged and supported National Health Service (NHS) community health staff in England to ‘spin out’ services into independent social enterprises. This article considers the processes and outputs of the initiative and reflects on the likelihood of positive outcomes for patients being achieved. It highlights lessons for future programmes seeking to transfer services out of public ownership.     

Social Return on Investment (SROI) and Performance Measurement

Abstract

Social enterprises are being promoted as responsive and innovative way to deliver public services. As part of this promotion, these organizations are being required to demonstrate the social and economic value they generate. Social return on investment (SROI) is a performance measurement tool currently being encouraged to capture this impact. This paper draws on survey and interview data to analyse how SROI is used and understood in health and social care settings. It indicates that despite being accepted as an internationally recognized measurement tool for social enterprise, SROI is underused and undervalued due to practical and ideological barriers.     

A multidimensional analysis of poverty in China from 1991 to 2006

Most studies have reported non negligible improvements for China in terms of poverty during the last three decades. However, this result is potentially hampered by two limitations. First, it may be contingent to the specific choices made regarding the poverty line and the poverty indices used for the analysis. As a consequence, it may collapse if one uses alternative poverty lines or poverty measures. Second, it results from a focus on the sole monetary aspects of poverty. As income does not cover all facets of well-being and since the relationship between these two concepts are quite fuzzy, it may be worth using a broader view of well-being, hence opting for a multidimensional approach of poverty analysis. In the present paper, these two issues are addressed using multidimensional stochastic dominance procedures on the joint distribution of income, education and health in seven Chinese provinces.     

Situational and trait interactions among goal orientations

Regulatory focus theory has been used to describe and explain a wide range of consumer responses. This goal orientation has been examined both as a chronic difference and a situational variable. Yet, it is unclear how a situational manipulation interacts with the individual??s chronic goal orientation. The present research investigates the potential for interactions and suggests that typical outcomes of regulatory focus are likely to emerge more clearly under circumstances in which promotion focus is manipulated. The studies demonstrate asymmetric effects in the interactions of chronic and situational manipulations of regulatory focus using different manipulations and outcome variables. The implications of these findings are significant for any research involving the manipulation of variables that can also be considered as chronic tendencies.     

Social marketing theory development goals: an agenda to drive change

ABSTRACT

Environmental, health, and social change is complex and frequently is framed as a problem(s) to be solved. This framing focuses effort on delivery of solutions designed to change systemic environmental, health, and social problems. Theory, an organising framework for effort, remains under-utilised in behavioural and social sciences. An individual psychological lens dominates and emphasis is placed on explaining and predicting individual behaviour and not behavioural change. It is time to break free and deliver frameworks that extend focus beyond individuals to all citizens, and apply new evaluation approaches that assess individual and structural changes. Ten Social Marketing Theory Development Goals (goals) categorised in three groups: (i) research design; (ii) building social marketing theory; and (iii) methodological innovation are outlined to assist social marketers to develop new ways of thinking that will deliver the theory and evidence base needed to outline what practitioners and policy makers should do to effect change.