DOES IMPROVING SCHOOL QUALITY REDUCE THE PROBABILITY OF UNEMPLOYMENT?

The authors investigate the relationship between high school quality and the probability of extended unemployment among noncollege-bound men during three periods: the first two years, two to four years, and seven to nine years after high school. They find that larger high schools and schools with lower pupil–teacher ratios tend to decrease the probability of being unemployed for noncollege-bound men in the period shortly after high school graduation. However, no effect is found of high school quality on unemployment probabilities approximately a decade after high school completion. (JEL I21 , J64 )     

降低精煤水分的探讨

煤的水分是精煤产品的一个重要指标,通过对铁东选煤厂降低精煤水分的过程分析,本文总结出了降低精煤水分的一系列有效途径。     

Motivating Truthful Subordinate Reporting: An Experimental Investigation in a Two-Subordinate Context*

Abstract. This experimental study tests the predicted effects of three performance-contingent pay schemes on subordinate misrepresentations: profit sharing, a single-subordinate truth-inducing scheme, and the Groves scheme. A contribution not found in prior experimental research is the introduction of the distinction between direct and indirect misrepresentations. The results show that, as predicted, the three schemes have different abilities to deter the two types of misrepresentations. The fewest direct and indirect misrepresentations occur under the Groves scheme and the most under the linear profit-sharing scheme. There is no significant difference between the single-subordinate truth-inducing scheme and the Groves scheme in the incidence of direct misrepresentations, but indirect misrepresentations are significantly more frequent under the former. Résumé. La présente étude expérimentale vise à tester certaines hypothèses relatives aux résultats de l'application de trois structures salariales liées au rendement sur les déclarations trompeuses des subordonnés: la participation linéaire aux bénéfices, une structure salariale individuelle favorisant la franchise et la structure Groves. Cette étude se démarque des etudes expérimentales antérieures en ce qu'elle introduit une distinction entre l'information trompeuse directe et indirecte. Les résultats révèlent que, conformément aux hypothèses, les trois structures salariales présentent des capacités différentes de décourager les deux formes de déclarations trompeuses. La structure Groves est celle qui occasionne le plus petit nombre de déclarations trompeuses directes et indirectes, tandis que la participation linéaire aux bénéfices est celle qui en occasionne le plus. Il n'existe pas de différence significative entre la structure salariale individuelle favorisant la franchise et la structure Groves en ce qui a trait à l'occurrence des déclarations trompeuses directes, mais les déclarations trompeuses indirectes sont beaucoup plus fréquentes dans le cas de la structure salariale individuelle.     

CAUSALITY IN POLITICAL BUSINESS CYCLES

One can easily identify four general models of political business cycles: office-motivated models (both forward and backward looking) and partisan models (again, both forward and backward looking). Each model makes different assumptions about the direction and timing of causal links between the economy and polity. This paper uses Granger causality tests to investigate the causal links between presidential popularity and different measures of aggregate economic performance and aggregate economic policy. The paper's aim is to investigate whether any existing theories receive substantive support and, if not, to suggest the properties that any new theories should display. The results indicate no overwhelming support for any existing theories, though partisan models receive more support than do office-motivated models. The data appear to be most consistent with Ellis and Thoma's reputational partisan model.     

Signalling and the Pricing of New Issues

This paper develops a signalling model with two signals, two attributes, and a continuum of signal levels and attribute types to explain new issue underpricing. Both the fraction of the new issue retained by the issuer and its offering price convey to investors the unobservable “intrinsic” value of the firm and the variance of its cash flows. Many of the model's comparative statics results are novel, empirically testable, and consistent with the existing empirical evidence on new issues. In particular, the degree of underpricing, which can be inferred from observable variables, is positively related to the firm's post-issue share price.     

双向知识产权保护对中国出口三元边际的影响

理论分析了双向知识产权保护对出口国出口三元边际的影响,并选取2005—2015年中国出口到世界65个国家的HS-6位贸易数据,构建引力模型进行了实证验证。主要结论是,国内加强知识产权保护可以提升中国的出口种类和数量,贸易伙伴国加强知识产权保护可以提升中国的出口种类;没有证据表明,国内或国外知识产权保护水平的提升会影响中国的出口价格;当国内知识产权保护更强时,双向知识产权保护对中国出口种类的促进作用都有所增强,反之则二者作用都不显著;分国家类型的研究表明,双向知识产权保护的同时加强更有益于中国向发展中国家出口产品种类的扩张,但对发达国家则不显著。     

陕西区域经济发展水平的聚类分析

本文以陕西省十个地级市及杨凌示范区为研究对象,选取反映区域经济发展水平的重要指标,通过对原始数据的采集处理,运用系统聚类分析的方法对社会经济发展水平进行聚类.最终将陕西省各地级市的经济发展水平划分为5类,分别进行客观评价,并就经济发展不平衡的现状提出了一些相应的对策建议,以期为有关部门的政策制定提供参考.