Why Do Managers Explain Their Earnings Forecasts?

Managers often explain their earnings forecasts by linking forecasted performance to their internal actions and the actions of parties external to the firm. These attributions potentially aid investors in the interpretation of management forecasts by confirming known relationships between attributions and profitability or by identifying additional causes that investors should consider when forecasting earnings. We investigate why managers choose to provide attributions with their forecasts and whether the attributions are related to security price reactions to management earnings forecasts. Using a sample of 951 management earnings forecasts issued from 1993 to 1996, we find that attributions are more likely for larger firms, less likely for firms in regulated industries, less likely for forecasts issued over longer horizons, more likely for bad news forecasts, and more likely for forecasts that are maximum type. Furthermore, attributions are associated with greater absolute price reactions to management forecasts, more negative price reactions to management forecasts (forecast news held constant), and a greater price reaction per dollar of unexpected earnings. Our findings hold after control for the aforementioned determinants of attributions and after control for other firm‐ and forecast‐specific variables that are often associated with security prices.     

UK Academic Accountants» Perceptions of Research and Publication Practices

Published research output is widely used as a measure of performance in UK universities. This paper investigates the acceptability of the research practices which underpin publication in accounting journals. Eighty-eight UK accounting academics reported their perceptions of the acceptability of ten research practices and their views of five research publication statements. Three research practices were found to be particularly unacceptable, but were perceived to be frequently used. The paper concludes by listing nine guidelines which have implications for authors, editors and reviewers.     

Invention in the Face of Necessity: Marshallian Rhetoric and the Giffen Good(s)

Alfred Marshall's introduction of the 'Giffen Good' case appears puzzling, if only because it was not discussed by Robert Giffen. This article suggests that the analytical framework which Marshall used to discuss the case owed a good deal to the work of W.S. Jevons. The precise argument, however, was introduced as a rhetorical device to defend the notion of consumer surplus (against J.S. Nicholson) and to criticize the advocacy of tariff reform (by W.A.S. Hewins).     

CANADIAN TAX REFORM AS PUBLIC CHOICE

One may view current Canadian tax reform as an episode in a tax reform cycle arising from a continual public choice game. Both the positions of the Canadian players and the rules of the game may provide a rationale for these reforms. Revenue, equity, efficiency, and bargaining constraints determine the evolution of the tax code.     

Hedging or Market Timing? Selecting the Interest Rate Exposure of Corporate Debt

This paper examines whether firms are hedging or timing the market when selecting the interest rate exposure of their new debt issuances. I use a more accurate measure of the interest rate exposure chosen by firms by combining the initial exposure of newly issued debt securities with their use of interest rate swaps. The results indicate that the final interest rate exposure is largely driven by the slope of the yield curve at the time the debt is issued. These results suggest that interest rate risk management practices are primarily driven by speculation or myopia, not hedging considerations.     

Changing Names with Style: Mutual Fund Name Changes and Their Effects on Fund Flows

We examine whether mutual funds change their names to take advantage of current hot investment styles, and what effects these name changes have on inflows to the funds, and to the funds' subsequent returns. We find that the year after a fund changes its name to reflect a current hot style, the fund experiences an average cumulative abnormal flow of 28%, with no improvement in performance. The increase in flows is similar across funds whose holdings match the style implied by their new name and those whose holdings do not, suggesting that investors are irrationally influenced by cosmetic effects.     

MULTIPROJECT STRATEGY AND SALES GROWTH: THE BENEFITS OF RAPID DESIGN TRANSFER IN NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT

This paper explores the impact on sales growth of different product development strategies, especially an approach that focuses on the coordination of multiple projects that overlap in time and share critical components. The data for our analysis comes from the automobile industry, although the principles we discuss should apply to any industry where firms compete with multiple product lines and where the sharing of components among more than one distinct product is both possible and desirable. Some firms compete by trying to develop ‘hit’ products in isolation, with little or no reuse of components or coordination with other products. Another way to compete is to leverage a firm’s investment in new technologies across as many new products as possible as quickly as possible, while the technologies are still relatively new. This paper proposes a typology that captures this effect by categorizing product development strategies into four types: new design, rapid (or concurrent) design transfer, sequential design transfer, and design modification. An analysis of 210 projects from the automobile industry between 1980 and 1991 indicates that firms utilizing the rapid design transfer strategy—quickly leveraging new platform components across multiple projects–increased sales more than when they or their competitors did not use this strategy. The study’s results suggest that not only the sharing of technology among multiple projects but also the speed of technology leveraging are important to sales growth. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

创新的趋势与要素

新的趋势和影响呼唤企业创新。为抓住新的市场机会并规避可能的风险,企业应深思在哪些方面创新？如何创新？