ON THE FIRST–ORDER EFFICIENCY AND ASYMPTOTIC NORMALITY OF MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATORS OBTAINED FROM DEPENDENT OBSERVATIONS

Abstract. In this paper we study the first–order efficiency and asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator obtained from dependent observations. Our conditions are weaker than usual, in that we do not require convergences in probability to be uniform or third–order derivatives to exist.
The paper builds on Witting and Nolle's result concerning the asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator obtained from independent and identically distributed observations, and on a martingale theorem by McLeish.     

A model of the Dutch labour market (AMO-K)

Summary So far, the labour market has not received any special attention from macro-econometric model builders. In this article an attempt has been made to describe the labour market in detail, paying attention to such important phenomena as the friction between labour supply and demand, the heterogeneity of labour, the dependence of labour supply on the labour-market situation, the Phillips mechanism and the impact of real wages on labour demand. To make it suitable for policy simulations, the model has been extended to a complete macro-econometric model, taking account of the fact that both labour and capital limit the production possibilities.This paper summarises an extensive Dutch report on the construction of a model for the Netherlands labour market. The title of the original report is AMO-K: Een arbeidsmarktmodel met twee categorieën arbeid; (AMO-K, A labour-market model with two categories of labour) ; it was published by the Netherlands Economic Institute (NEI) in Rotterdam in the so-called Olive Series, 1982-2, pp. 403ff. Some details of the model presented in that report were changed after its publication; see G. den Broeder, AMO-K 81-12, Tussenrapport betreffende de verdere ontwikkeling van het arbeidsmarktmodel (Interim report on the further development of the labourmarket model), Rotterdam, September 1983. Since then, only minor changes have been carried through. The model reproduced in this paper is the modified version. The model was developed within the National Programme of Labour-Market Research (NPAO) (now defunct), the NPAO organisation having granted a commission to the NEI in Rotterdam.     

Markov-Chain Analysis of Internal Manpower Supply

The separation of manpower forecasting into a demand forecast and a supply forecast emphasizes that each depends on quite different sources of information. The demand forecast is based primarily on an estimate of sales, which is then transformed into the number and type of personnel needed to produce and sell the company's products. The information for forecasting internal supply can often be treated as if it were independent of the external environment and is often available within the firm. If a matrix representing the probability of transition from one job classification to another can be prepared for the relevant classifications, Markov-chain theory can be used to generate a forecast of internal manpower supply.