Why Does Return Predictability Concentrate in Bad Times?

We build an equilibrium model to explain why stock return predictability concentrates in bad times. The key feature is that investors use different forecasting models, and hence assess uncertainty differently. As economic conditions deteriorate, uncertainty rises and investors' opinions polarize. Disagreement thus spikes in bad times, causing returns to react to past news. This phenomenon creates a positive relation between disagreement and future returns. It also generates time‐series momentum, which strengthens in bad times, increases with disagreement, and crashes after sharp market rebounds. We provide empirical support for these new predictions.     

What Shapes Assessment of Ability to Pay for Children's College Education?

Many parents have concerns about the cost of their child's college and lack information about preparing for those expenses. Parents' assessment of ability to pay for college are likely to influence their investments in a child's education, and may in turn affect the child's educational commitment and attainment. These potential outcomes lead us to investigate what accounts for parents' assessment. We use logistic regression to analyze data collected from mothers with newborn children (N = 2,566). The findings demonstrate that the mother's assessment of ability to pay for the child's education are significantly associated with material hardship experiences, financial management skills, educational expectations, and her education level. We discuss research and policy implications of promoting positive financial assessment for college early.     

VIDEO GAMES AND CRIME

Psychological studies find that video game play is associated with markers for violent and antisocial attitudes. It is plausible that these markers indicate either whetted or sated preferences for antisocial behavior. I investigate whether a proxy for video gaming is associated with the prevalence of various crimes and find evidence that gaming is associated with significant declines in crime and death rates. These results are robust to various alternative specifications. Other youth‐related leisure activities—sports and movie viewing—generate smaller or no effects. These results cast doubt on the desirability of proposed restrictions on video game marketing. (JEL L86, D18, I18)     

Farmer Gone Fish'n? Swidden Decline and the Rise of Grouper Fishing on Palawan Island,the Philippines

Considerable research has focused on understanding how upland farmers adjust land‐based livelihoods to the influences of agrarian change in Southeast Asia. In the process, an ‘upland bias’ has emerged where researchers focus narrowly on the uplands as localities with distinct, coherent features, neglecting how families engage place, social relations and ethnicity as they access opportunities in proximate spaces. This paper considers how the Tagbanua – long considered an upland swidden people – have ‘stepped back’ from swidden agriculture due to declining yields and debt to harvest the lucrative grouper (e.g. Plectropomus leopardus). We show how Tagbanua families on Palawan Island have adjusted swidden as they negotiate social relations, ethnic cleavages and economic barriers to effectively engage the grouper industry. Rather than cast such farmers and fishers as ideal types in place, we argue that how they negotiate social relations creates new livelihood opportunities in varied environments, reinforcing the dynamic, recursive context of agrarian change.     

Index of Consumer Expectations: Food Price Effects and Durable Goods Expenditures

The Index of Consumer Expectations (ICE), which includes expenditures on durable goods, has been adopted as a leading indicator of national economic activity. A rational expectations model of the ICE was developed and the economic determinants of consumers' expectations were estimated. Aggregate expenditures on durable goods were explained by an endogenous ICE and sentiment about current economic conditions. Consumers were more likely to purchase durable goods when they felt better off in the current period relative to the future.     

Implicit Tax Rates of the Expanded Earned Income Tax Credit for Welfare Recipients in North Carolina

High implicit tax rates for welfare recipients have been cited as a deterrent to additional work effort by these households. The expanded earned income tax credit (EITC), passed by Congress in 1993, was enacted in part to reduce the implicit tax rates and increase work effort by very low income households. This paper calculates implicit tax rates for a typical welfare family in North Carolina before and after the expanded EITC. Although the expanded EITC reduces implicit tax rates for the typical welfare household at very low levels of earnings, implicit tax rates are still found to be substantial, especially when work and child care costs are included.     

Testing Implications of Spatial Economics Models: Some Evidence from Food Retailing

Under certain conditions, spatial economics models predict an increase in product price after entry of new competitors in a market area. However, a review of spatial economics models suggests new competitors should cause lower prices in urbanized markets, although the effect is dependent on distance between the existing and new firms. An empirical analysis of entry in a local retail food market supports this hypothesis for food products but not nonfood products.     

The Impacts of the California Beverage Container Recycling and Litter Reduction Act on Consumers

In late 1987 the California Beverage Container Recycling and Litter Reduction Act went into effect. Like mandatory beverage deposit legislation in other states, this Act is designed to promote returns through the payment of a redemption value. However, unlike traditional legislation, the Act attempts to promote recycling with lower redemption values and more state intervention. This paper presents a methodology for analyzing the impacts of beverage container recycling legislation on consumers. Applying this methodology to California, it is found that the Act will significantly reduce beverage container solid waste and litter, but the net benefits of the Act depend critically on consumers' valuations of intangible benefits.