Predicting future purchases with the Poisson log-normal model

The negative binomial distribution (NBD) has been widely used in marketing for modeling purchase frequency counts, particularly in packaged goods contexts. A key managerially relevant use of this model is Conditional Trend Analysis (CTA)—a method of benchmarking future sales utilizing the NBD conditional expectation. CTA allows brand managers to identify whether the sales change in a second period is accounted for by previous non-, light, or heavy buyers of the brand. Although a useful tool, the conditional prediction of the NBD suffers from a bias: it under predicts what the period-one non-buyer class will do in period two and over predicts the sales contribution of existing buyers. In addition, the NBD's assumption of a gamma-distributed mean purchase rate lacks theoretical support—it is not possible to explain why a gamma distribution should hold. This paper therefore proposes an alternative model using a log-normal distribution in place of the gamma distribution, hence creating a Poisson log-normal (PLN) distribution. The PLN distribution has a stronger theoretical grounding than the NBD as it has a natural interpretation relying on the central limit theorem. Empirical analysis of brands in multiple categories shows that the PLN distribution gives better predictions than the NBD.     

All's Fair

A bstract The authors examine divorce rates in the United States in the 20th century, looking especially at the effects that wars have had on those rates. Gary Becker's theories on the family arc the basis for analysis. Of particular interest to the authors is whether or not the scope of the war has an effect upon the rate of divorce. The authors also examine other social changes and events to see how they have affected those rates. Empirical tests show that World War II significantly increased divorce rates, but the rates did not significantly climb because of the Korean War and Vietnam War. World War I is also not significant, although had the United States been involved longer, the results may have been different.     

How did investor‐state dispute settlement get a bad rap? Blame it on NAFTA,of course

In the short history of the US bilateral investment treaty (BIT) programme, there have been no instances of dispute settlement cases initiated against the United States by firms from BIT countries. The NAFTA experience changed that. Where other studies have only hinted at the reasons for NAFTA controversies, this paper makes clear three causal factors: (i) changing patterns and intensity of FDI, (ii) the application of those rules to developed countries amid those changing FDI patterns and (iii) ambiguities in ISDS rules themselves. The paper explores these and traces the ways in which lessons of the NAFTA have been instrumental in changing the pursuit of investment protection agreements. BITs used to be uncontroversial, but the NAFTA focused attention on reforms to ISDS that maintain the utility of BITs in the governance of FDI, without creating a legal structure for simply challenging the state.     

The Climate Policy of the European Union

There is now almost universal agreement that climate change, with potentially disastrous consequences, is happening and that it is contributed to by human activities. This Forum is dedicated to the discussion of various aspects of the European Union's climate policy, e.g. the EU's future role in the global effort to combat global warming, the efficiency of its climate strategy, the design of a new rule for sharing the corresponding burdens fairly among member states, and the interrelationships between the Union's climate policies, on the one hand, and its energy and transport policies, on the other. * and member of the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU). The author wishes to thank Helen Bicknell (Mainz University of Applied Sciences), Oliver Deke (WBGU) and Jürgen Schmid (ISET, Department of Efficient Energy Conversion at the University of Kassel) for their helpful comments. ** This contribution is based on a Jean Monnet Lecture held at Aarhus University on 19 March 2007. The author would like to thank Harri Kalimo for valuable comments.     

On globalization ‘with Chinese characteristics’?

This Commentary looks at Globalization ‘with Chinese Characteristics’ (quanqiu hua yu zhongguo tese) as revealed through the lens of President Xi Jinping’s recent speech to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland in January, 2017. In this, he sets out a positive role for the PRC in the ‘Globalization’ stakes. He also puts himself forward as ‘Expert’, rather than ‘Red’, in the ongoing polemic on the benefits of further reductions in barriers to doing business. But whether this may be taken at its face value remains to be seen. Whilst the Chinese appear to promote more of ‘Globalization’ and the Americans seem to retreat from the model, the world economic community may well suspend its judgement.     

Regulatory fit effects of gender and marketing message content

Many US adults do not get enough daily physical activity. To change behavior, governments and other agencies design marketing messages encouraging more physical activity. A lab experiment draws on Regulatory Focus Theory to examine health communication's persuasive effects on physical activity. This study identifies gender differences in chronic regulatory focus and shows that congruence between message regulatory focus and the message recipient's gender is effective, particularly for males. Results also show that emotions mediate regulatory fit effects on intentions. Further, chronic regulatory focus mediates these effects on emotions. Results inform implications for theory as well as for practitioners who design health-marketing messages.     

Building loyalty in e-commerce: Impact of business and customer characteristics

Abstract

Understanding, building, and predicting customer loyalty in e-commerce are critical activities for long-run profitability. Successfully carrying out these activities is challenging due to the complex mix of both business organization and customer factors that may influence and drive e-loyalty. We demonstrate that business factors, such as credibility, e-satisfaction and site knowledge, and customer factors, such as inertia, innovativeness, and aggressiveness, influence e-loyalty. Our analyses show that business credibility is affected by the reputation of the e-business and its congruence with the customers’ self-image; e-satisfaction by the customers’ value perception, care, and choice; and site knowledge by customer experience, involvement, and expertise. Business factors account for about 75% of the explained variation in e-loyalty and customer factors for the rest. Understanding the controllable business and uncontrollable customer factors that drive customer loyalty should enable e-commerce retailers to continually assess these factors and make appropriate changes in marketing strategy.     

If Time Is Money Is It a Common Currency? Time in Anglo,Asian, and Latin Cultures

ABSTRACT

Social time affects the timing and frequency of purchases, the hours consumers patronize businesses, and how long consumers expect products to last. Understanding how culturally based social time attitudes differ will help marketers tailor their offerings and messages to consumers whose concepts of time differ. This exploratory study combined related streams of time literature to examine constructs of social time differences across cultures. Drawing upon a sample of 1377 respondents from six countries representing three cultural groups (Anglo, Latin, and Asian), the study explores the similarity and differences of cultural social time differences among these three groups.     

BOOK REVIEWS

Purpose: Companies engage in business relationships for a variety of reasons, including specialization, product development, and building competitive networks. Research has demonstrated that mergers and acquisitions (M&As) may challenge ongoing business relationships. The purpose of this article is to investigate whether and how competition authorities consider business relationships when evaluating M&As.

Methodology: The article uses the documentation from 450 M&As reported to the Swedish competition authority to capture the way in which an authority evaluates M&As. The Swedish competition authority evaluation corresponds to other national and international evaluation procedures.

Findings: The findings indicate that the competition authorities neglect an important aspect of business life, namely companies forming business relationships. The competition authorities evaluate M&As on the basis of risk for price increases, and consequently disregard such issues as heterogeneity in demand and offerings, and values built into existing business relationships.

Originality/Value/Contribution: The article contributes to research on business relationships through exploring how a public authority deals with such relationships. It also contributes to research on mergers and acquisitions through examining how these activities are evaluated by competition authorities. Furthermore, the article contributes to competition research by reflecting on competition law concerning M&A regulations in relation to business relationships.