A NOTE ON VICTORIAN WHEAT YIELD DISTRIBUTIONS

An analysis of wheat yield series from ten localities in Victoria was undertaken to investigate for independence of observations and to test for normality of the distributions. The conclusion was reached that Victorian wheat yield series are composed of random observations and form frequency distributions which display slight negative skewness. The situation may be different for other crops or for wheat in other areas.     

What Do Bettors Want? Determinants of Pari‐Mutuel Betting Preference

A bstract .   This paper is an analysis of the demand for thoroughbred racetrack wagers, examining evidence that would support the existence of two types of bettors: the risk-averse informed bettor versus the uninformed bettor. Looking at 12 major racetracks over the fall of 2002, we undertake an empirical examination of the determinants of bettors' preferences for particular wagers on specific races. The goal is to try to determine what individual aspects of a race (conditions, surface, participants, etc.) will encourage increased wagering dollars. With the advent of simulcasting, the competition for the wagering dollar is fierce, as the bettor can choose from more than 100 races daily, each race offering numerous betting options. We find for most wagers that higher quality participants, larger and more competitive fields, and turf races increase betting volume while higher pari-mutuel takeout, poor track conditions, and other races run concurrently reduce volume. However, more competitive fields reduce betting volume in the show and trifecta pools. Optimal field size is determined to be between 10 and 12 betting interests. Overall, we find support for the existence of a significant share of risk-averse informed bettors.     

Information in stock prices: the case of the 2016 U.S. presidential election

On the day before the 2016 U.S. presidential election, the odds of Hillary Clinton winning the presidency, according to political prediction markets, were above 90%. Surprisingly, Donald Trump won the Electoral College handily. In this study, we examine how movements in specific stock prices foreshadowed the eventual outcome. Specifically, we conduct a series of standard event-study tests focused on pharmaceutical companies, which became a focal point during the presidential campaign. Results show that while stocks of pharmaceutical companies significantly underperformed the market prior to the election, prices substantially increased beginning three days before the election outcome. This increase is both statistically significant and economically meaningful and robust to various event-study methodologies. These results suggest that some sectors of the stock market seemed to anticipate the election outcome.     

Globalization,employment relations and human resources indicators in ten developed market economies: international data sets

This paper provides statistical information on internationalization, human resources and labour market outcomes in ten important developed market economies (DMEs). Such data are useful for practitioners and academics who are interested in international HRM. The article's aim is to provide easily accessible statistical tables of selected characteristics, which can be used to draw initial comparisons between countries and to test competing accounts of the impact of globalization on national patterns of employment relations. It includes standard sources so readers can elaborate and update these data.     

Saltwater Crocodiles as Tourist Attractions

These study reports the results derived from a pilot research study based on a phenomenographic research approach with 50 respondents in the Northern Territory of Australia. The data permitted a perceptual map to be drawn which identifies tourist fascination with crocodiles as being based on attributes of potential threat, danger, power, links with the prehistoric, and survivorship. However the study also found that when asked to describe the Northern Territory, crocodiles did not immediately come to mind, even though, arguably, the reptile is etched upon the ethos of the 'Top End'. However prompted responses quickly elicited mention of crocodiles. There was also a preference to see crocodiles within their natural terrain. Some evidence of a minority of tourists being prepared to mitigate their behaviours was also found, and hence this study may have wider implications.     

Öffentliches und Geheimes

In the second half of 2009, the entire media agenda in Germany was dominated by the swine flu, next to the German Federal Parliament elections. Criticism was voiced in the media against the pharmaceutical industry for lobbying the nationwide swine flu vaccination, which was widely considered nothing but a product of the industry’s lobbying power. In order to avoid the usual interviews with lobbyists, we attempted to apply a new methodological framework approach in analysing lobbying processes and key stakeholders in the public sphere—and outside. Crucial to the diversified approach, which involves quantitative content analysis of media coverage and press releases, are interviews with journalists, lobbyists’ network analysis and internet research on biographies. Although a conspiracy could not be conclusively proven, the results do indicate associations that validate the criticism of the industry’s lobbying activities.     

A resilience-based framework for evaluating adaptive co-management: Linking ecology, economics and society in a complex world

Adaptive co-management brings together collaborative and adaptive approaches in pursuit of sustainable resource use and social-ecological resilience. Enthusiasm for this management approach, however, is countered by recent critiques regarding outcomes. A lack of evidence from consistent evaluation of adaptive co-management further exacerbates this situation. This paper revisits the issue of evaluation in natural resource management and recasts it in light of complex adaptive systems thinking. An evaluative framework for adaptive co-management is developed which directs attention toward three broad components: ecosystem conditions, livelihood outcomes and process and institutional conditions. Scale-specific parameters are offered for each component to facilitate systematic learning from experience and encourage cross-site comparisons. Conclusions highlight the importance of systematically incorporating evaluation into the adaptive co-management process and recognize the challenge for resource agencies and researchers to shift from a conventional to a complex adaptive system perspective.     

A Framework for Reconsidering the Lake Wobegon Effect

The Lake Wobegon Effect (LWE) describes the potential measurement-error bias introduced into survey-based analyses of education issues. Although this effect potentially applies to any student-report variable, the systematic overreporting of academic achievements such as grade point average is often of preeminent concern. This concern can be easily circumvented if official records data are available; however, many researchers can only access student-reported data. In this article, the authors examine whether using student-survey data in place of official records data meaningfully biases regression estimates. They motivate their contribution by noting a useful statistical feature of overreporting on bounded variables such as grade point average. Specifically, the misreports will be negatively correlated with the true grade point average, yielding a form of nonclassical measurement error that actually counteracts the bias. The authors connect this observation to reliability ratios used in labor economics, which are simple ways to adjust for attenuation bias, when needed. In two applications, we find that it is unnecessary to correct for the LWE bias because it is so small.