The election cycle in the inflation bias: evidence from the G-7 countries

This paper derives and evaluates empirical implications which separate the naive voters view [Nordhaus, W.D., 1975. The political business cycle. Review of Economic Studies 42, 169–190.] from the rational-voters view [Barro R., Gordon, D., 1983. Rules, discretion, and reputation in a model of monetary policy. Journal of Monetary Economics 12, 101–121.] under rational expectations. The observational equivalence of the two approaches obtained under a natural rate vanishes as output persistence is introduced. An analysis of inflation in the G-7 countries reveals election patterns supporting the joint hypothesis that demand shocks persist and that monetary policy courts retrospective voters. Patterns turn weaker as central banks become more independent, but do not disappear. Reducing inflationary bias not only requires more central bank independence, but as well less persistence.     

Reforming the European Monetary System

The extreme widening of the exchange rate margins last summer has transformed the EMS from a multilateral fixed rate system into a system of unilateral exchange rate pegging. Professor Neumann characterises the current state of the EMS, outlines the major defects of the system and makes some proposals for reform.     

The economic constitution of the European community: From Rome to Maastricht

The present paper analyzes the changes in the economic constitution of the European Community since its foundation in 1958. In order to identify the various changes, we start by developing a frame of reference. Our proposition is that theconstitutional charter of the European Economic Community (EEC)—the EEC Treaty—came closest to this frame of reference, being an economic constitution for a market system, whereas the subsequentprocess of European integration—including several modifications of the Treaty—was largely based on the introduction of non-market elements. Our argument is that as far as the economic constitution is concerned, the Treaty of Maastricht is dominated by traits which are characteristic of modern welfare states.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Notes and Comments:</Emphasis> The numeraire portfolio in financial markets modeled by a multi-dimensional jump diffusion process

In continuous time, we study a financial market which is free of arbitrage opportunities but incomplete under the physical probability measure P. Thus one has several choices of equivalent martingale measures. In the present paper, the (unique) martingale measure P ^* is studied which is defined by the concept of the numeraire portfolio. The choice of P ^* can be justified by a change of numeraire in place of a change of measure. Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): 90A09, 91B28, 91B62, 93E20, 62P05 Journal of Economic Literature Classification: G10, G12, G13     

Shared producer and consumer responsibility — Theory and practice

Over the past decade, an increasing number of authors have been examining the nexus of producer versus consumer responsibility, often dealing with the question of how to assign responsibility for internationally traded greenhouse gas emissions. Recently, a similar problem has appeared in drafting the standards for the Ecological Footprint: While the method traditionally assumes a full life-cycle perspective with full consumer responsibility, a large number of producers (businesses and industry sectors) have started to calculate their own footprints (see www.isa.org.usyd.edu.au). Adding any producer's footprint to other producers' footprints, or to population footprints, which all already cover the full upstream supply chain of their operating inputs, leads to double-counting: The sum of footprints of producers and consumers is larger than the total national footprint. The committee in charge of the Footprint standardisation process was hence faced with the decades-old non-additivity problem, posing the following dilemma for the accounting of footprints, or any other production factor: if one disallows double-counting, but wishes to be able to account for producers and consumers, then one cannot impose the requirement of full life-cycle coverage; the supply chains of actors have to be curtailed somehow in order to avoid double-counting. This work demonstrates and discusses a non-arbitrary method of consistently delineating these supply chains, into mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive portions of responsibility to be shared by all actors in an economy.     

Power,luck and the right index

Summary We have pointed out the theoretical drawbacks of the traditional indices for measuring a priori voting power inasmuch as they are implied in considering the coalition value a private good. This criticism caused us to view the coalition outcome as a public good. From this aspect and additional considerations with respect to power, luck, and decisiveness, we obtained a story describing the characteristics of an adequate measure of a priori voting power. These characteristics were found to be fulfilled by an index presented by Holler (1978). Through the above analysis this index has received its theoretical justification. An independent view of this index was then provided by means of an axiomatic characterization. This characterization makes possible abstract comparison of the index with previously established private good indices.While we have restricted our attention to simple games, the index presented can be generalized to provide a value on games in characteristic function form. We leave this topic for future conideration.     

Water accounting in Australia

This paper introduces water accounting as produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). It provides information about the ABS Water Accounts and highlights the many other organisations involved in the provision and use of water related data in Australia. The ABS Water Accounts have built upon previous reports on Australian water resources and the System of Environment and Economic Accounting [UN (United Nations) 2003. Draft Handbook Integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting. Studies in Methods, Series F, No. 61, Rev. 1. United Nations, European Commission, International Monetary Fund, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, World Bank. New York.]. Information from the ABS Water Accounts is presented along with examples of their use in economic analyses designed to inform public debate and government decision-makers.A key feature of the Australian environment is that water is relatively scarce when compared with other inhabited continents. Rainfall displays a high level of spatial and temporal variability and droughts are common. In 2004 an Intergovernmental Agreement on a National Water Initiative (NWI) was reached by Australia's national and eight state and territory governments. The NWI aims to address environmental, economic and social concerns about the current and future state of Australia's water resources. The NWI specifically calls for the preparation of annual water accounts, which clearly indicates the expected usefulness of national and regional water accounts.     

Cognition,competition, and catallaxy in memory of Friedrich August von Hayek

The paper focuses on central elements of the scientific work of Friedrich A. v. Hayek since the 1930s. In a first part, his epistemological position and its implications for his understanding of the tasks of the social sciences are presented as he set them out particularly in theSensory Order (1952). Then, it is shown how his findings in economic theory as well as in the analysis of economic and societal systems are formed by these foundations. His emphasis on the subjectivity and the constitutional limitations of human knowledge is identified as a precondition for the outstanding analytical insights which he gained with regard to the functioning of a market order and the role of institutions in societal development. Furthermore, it is argued that Hayek's enduring campaign for freedom and against the socialist tendencies in welfare states was not simply a matter of personal conviction. It was also the result of his analysis in constitutional political economy which revealed to him that freedom as a normative basis of economic and societal institutions is the key to the explanation of European cultural evolution.