Interest rate changes and the timing of debt issues

There is much recent interest in the role of market timing in firm financial decisions. Using a large detailed sample of corporate public debt issues, private placements, Rule 144A issues and bank loans over the period 1970–2006, we investigate the relationship between interest rate changes and issues of floating and fixed-rate debt. Our results indicate that both past and future rates are associated with issuance decisions. We examine whether firms are able to lower their cost of capital by anticipating future rate changes, controlling for firm characteristics and market conditions. Our findings suggest that evidence of timing success is dependent on the time interval and type of debt examined. Over the longest time intervals available in our data, we do not find evidence of timing ability for fixed-rate or floating-rate debt issues.     

The psychological impact of teleworking: stress, emotions and health

The paper examines the psychological impact of teleworking compared to office-based work. Results suggest a negative emotional impact of teleworking, particularly in terms of such emotions as loneliness, irritability, worry and guilt, and that teleworkers experience significantly more mental health symptoms of stress than office-workers and slightly more physical health symptoms.     

Some observations on MMT: what’s right,not right,and what’s too simplistic

Business Economics - Three observations on modern monetary theory (MMT): (1) What’s right is not new—Consolidating public finance, whether it’s held on a balance sheet of the Fed...     

Editorial

Original Papers

Editorial     

United States - The Downgrade Scenario

Summary The US debt-ceiling negotiations in Washington are showing little progress as the 2 August deadline approaches.Based on the latest proposals under discussion, the chances of a debt-ceiling hike which also incorporates USD 4trn worth of deficit cuts over the next decade are slim.This is important, as it means that S&P is likely to downgrade the US sovereign rating from AAA to AA, even if the debt ceiling is raised.Note that in an interview with Dow Jones, one of S&P's credit analysts said that to avoid a downgrade, the US needs to agree to reduce the fiscal deficit by over USD 4tm over the next ten years.This is what S&P sees as the required amount to prevent the total government debt-to-GDP ratio from rising.Therefore, a debt-ceiling deal with deficit cuts falling short of this could mean a downgrade by at least one of the three key rating agencies.     

The effects of exchange rate trends and volatility on export prices: Industry examples from Japan,Germany, and the United States

Review of World Economics - Die Wirkungen von Trends und Schwankungen der Wechselkurse auf die Exportpreise: Beispiele aus der Industrie Japans, der Bundesrepublik und der Vereinigten Staaten. -...     

The Influence of Monetary Conditions on the Response of Interest Rate Futures to M1 Releases: 1976–1998

Abstract:   This study examines the response of T‐bill and T‐bond futures prices to weekly M1 announcements over the period March 1976 to November 1998 conditioned upon monetary operating procedures and the stance in monetary policy. In concurrence with previous studies, this study finds that unanticipated increases in M1 are negatively related to changes in T‐bill and T‐bond futures prices. However, when the data is sorted by monetary regime, the stance in monetary policy, and direction of money surprise, we find evidence to support the several competing theories historically suggested by Cornell (1983b) to explain the impact of money supply announcements.     

THE DEALERS' PRICE/SIZE QUOTE AND MARKET LIQUIDITY

We model trading in a competitive securities market where informed traders and liquidity traders transact with dealers. The dealers' entire published quote is modeled: bid-ask prices and the number of shares the dealer is willing to buy/sell at these prices (i.e., size quotes). We argue that size quotes are a more informative indicator of market liquidity than the bid-ask spread's adverse-selection component. Moreover, the size quotes reveal several market characteristics that cannot be inferred from the bid-ask spread's adverse-selection component alone. The model generates a number of empirically testable predictions that clarify certain key elements of market liquidity.