When haste makes sense: Cracking down on street markets for illicit drugs

This paper presents an analytical approach to the tactical question: ‘What level of enforcement over time allows one to eliminate a street market for illicit drugs while expanding the least possible total effort?’ The analysis is done in the context of Caulkins' model [6] which predicts the rate of change of dealers as a function of enforcement level and several market parameters. Our analysis suggests that the simple strategy of using the maximum available enforcement intensity until the market has been eliminated minimizes the total enforcement effort required.     

Assessment of Interjudge Reliability in the Open-Ended Questions Coding Process

In the process of coding open-ended questions, the evaluation of interjudge reliability is a critical issue. In this paper, using real data, the behavior of three coefficients of reliability among coders, Cohen’s K, Krippendorff’s α and Perreault and Leigh’s I _r are patterned, in terms of the number of judges involved and the categories of answer defined. The outcome underlines the importance of both variables in the valuations of interjudge reliability, as well as the higher adequacy of Perreault and Leigh’s I _r and Krippendorff’s α for marketing and opinion research.     

Localized Innovation and Productivity Growth in Asia: An Intertemporal DEA Approach

Recent contributions to growth theory stress the importance of localized innovation for the performance of more backward countries. In earlier papers, analyses by means of DEA techniques confirmed this intuition. In this paper, we extend this type of analysis by relaxing the macroeconomic viewpoint adopted until now. New databases on output, labor and capital input in the agricultural and manufacturing sectors are developed for 40 countries. Using intertemporal DEA, it is found that changes in the global production frontier are localized at high levels of capital intensity. This result is stronger in agriculture than in manufacturing. Further, a decomposition of labor productivity growth in eight Asian countries for the period 1975–1992 into the effects of capital intensification, learning and innovation is made. The results suggest that there is a particular development path in which increases in capital intensity appear to be a prerequisite to benefit from international technology spillovers.JEL Classification: O14, O30, O40, O47     

Airport infrastructure spillovers in a network system

Airports in the US air transport network have become increasingly congested, leading to delays for business travelers and freight shipments. Since disruptions in one part of the network exacerbate problems throughout the system, airport infrastructure expansions to enhance air traffic flows confer travel-time savings and reliability benefits, and thus increased worker productivity and shipping efficiency for manufacturing firms. We evaluate such spillovers, and find that higher own-state airport infrastructure implies lower manufacturing costs from both labor- and materials-savings. Airport expansion in connected states has a comparable effect for states with hub airports, and an even greater impact for other states.     

Reconciling introspective utility with revealed preference: Experimental arguments based on prospect theory

In an experiment, choice-based (revealed-preference) utility of money is derived from choices under risk, and choiceless (non-revealed-preference) utility from introspective strength-of-preference judgments. The well-known inconsistencies of risky utility under expected utility are resolved under prospect theory, yielding one consistent cardinal utility index for risky choice. Remarkably, however, this cardinal index also agrees well with the choiceless utilities, suggesting a relation between a choice-based and a choiceless concept. Such a relation implies that introspective judgments can provide useful data for economics, and can reinforce the revealed-preference paradigm. This finding sheds new light on the classical debate on ordinal versus cardinal utility.     

THE INFLUENCE OF ORGANIZATION STRUCTURE ON THE UTILITY OF AN ENTREPRENEURIAL TOP MANAGEMENT STYLE

This study examined the influence of organization structure on the relationship between top management's entrepreneurial orientation and financial performance. Moderated regression analysis was used to analyse data collected from 80 business organizations. the findings suggest that an entrepreneurial top management style has a positive effect on the performance of organically-structured firms and a negative effect on the performance of mechanistically-structured firms.     

Zur Entscheidung y>y0 aufgrund der Messung einer korrelierten Variablen

Zusammenfassung Es wird eine optimale Strategie im Sinne des minimalen erwarteten Verlustes für die beiden Entscheidungeny>y _o undyy _o aufgrund der Messungen einer mitY positiv korrelierten, einfacher und/oder billiger zugänglichen ZufallsvariablenX abgeleitet. Dabei wird angenommen, daßX undY nach einer bivariaten Normalverteilung mit bekannten Parametern verteilt sind und die Entscheidungyy _o getroffen wird, wennx größer ist als ein zu bestimmendesx _o, und die Entscheidungy>y _o, wennx gleich oder kleiner als diesesx _o ist. Für die Bestimmung des optimalenx _o werden zunächst die Kosten für die beiden Fehlentscheidungen jeweils als konstant vorausgesetzt, in einem weiteren Ansatz wird jedoch für die Mißklassifikationyy _o eine mity exponentiell wachsende Risikofunktion angenommen. Um die relative Häufigkeit der zu erwartenden Fehlklassifikationen abschätzen zu können, wird schließlich die bedingte WahrscheinlichkeitP(x>x _o,y) errechnet.

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Summary An optimal strategy, with minimum expected risk, for the decisionsy>y _o oryy _o is constructed on the basis of the measurement of a variableX, which is positively correlated withY and can be measured more easily and/or with smaller expense. A bivariate normal distribution with known parameters is assumed forX andY. For the observationsx a limitx _o is aimed at, so that the decisionsy>y _o oryy _o are taken ifx>x orxx _o respectively. Optimal values ofx _o are first calculated under the assumption of constant losses for the two misclassifications (x>x _o ifyy _o andxx _o ify>y _o). In a further approach the loss for a wrong decisionyy _o is assumed to increase exponentially withy. Finally the conditional probabilityP (x>x _o\y) is calculated to get an assessment of the relative frequencies of wrong decisions to be expected.

     

The efficiency of decomposition vs direct solution with implications for the question of decentralized or centralized planning

Conclusion The investigation provides overwhelming evidence that decomposition tends to become increasingly more efficient than direct solution as the number of subproblems becomes greater.Further investigation would be required to obtain a comparable picture of the behaviour of decomposition with respect to an increasing number of variables in the master problem as their range of variation in the present study is rather restricted.It is gratefully acknowledged: that in implementing the decompositional procedure on the computer I have benefitted from Mr. A. C. McKay's advice on matters relating to the computer programmes; also that I enjoyed the pleasant and friendly co-operation of the staff of the computer Centre, University of Birmingham, without which the difficulties involved in carrying out the present task would have been compounded manifold; that Dr. C.-L. Sandblom carefully studied this paper and suggested a number of valuable improvements. Finally, I should like to thank Professor Kronsjö for the encouragement that he has given to me in executing this project and to the research council which made this investigation possible.     

A curtailed test for the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution

Summary A procedure is proposed in this paper for testing the shape parameter, of the Weibull distribution. The test statistic which is based on the extremal quotient, possesses a monotone property which makes it possible for rejection earlier than the last planned observation of the null hypothesis,H ₀: =₀ when the alternative hypothesis isH _a: <₀ and early acceptance ofH ₀ whenH _a: >₀. The test being scale-free, does not require the scale parameter to be known.     

A General Method of Deriving the Inefficiencies of Banks from a Profit Function

This article develops a new method of estimating inefficiencies in joint production and shows that unlike the approaches utilized in the previous studies of inefficiency, this method maintains a consistent relationship between the error term of a profit function and the error terms of its price derivatives. A useful by-product of the method is a proof of a Hotelling-like lemma that relates stochastic input demand and output supply functions to stochastic profit functions. While the previous studies fit a single frontier to data on all firms, this paper estimates a frontier unique to every observed firm to allow each one to have a different potential of achieving maximal levels of profit. The new method is applied in the analysis of annual data, 1984–1989, for U.S. commercial banks. Both the analytical and numerical results of the paper show that the residual that the previous studies attribute to inefficiency includes the effects of excluded variables and of inaccuracies in the specified functional forms. Once accurate estimates of these effects are subtracted from the residual, the distortions in the measured inefficiencies should be considerably reduced. Consequently, this article considers how such estimates might be obtained.