Creating Value Through Best‐In‐Class Capital Allocation1

With the economy showing signs of recovery, companies are shifting their focus from liquidity and balance sheet concerns back towards capital allocation and value creation. This article provides a comprehensive framework to examine shareholder value creation through capital allocation, and discusses important capital allocation lessons that have re‐emerged over the last few years. Notable among the key lessons are the following:

• ? Growth alone does not guarantee value creation, which suggests that companies should allocate capital based on the economic value of each investment opportunity.
• ? The limits of diversification in a financial crisis should be considered when allocating capital and managing liquidity.
• ? Companies should be conservative with base‐case cash flow projections and incorporate the possibility of downside scenarios into their projections.
• ? It is important to incorporate all forms of capital when managing liquidity.
• ? Whether using a long‐term or current‐market approach, companies should be consistent throughout the cycle in their cost of capital methodology.
• ? Companies should continually rethink investments and allocate capital in an attempt to maintain a competitive advantage.
• ? Evaluate returns relative to risk and cost of capital, and not against the company's average ROIC.
• ? Comparing the IRR of share repurchases to new investments is not an apples‐to‐apples comparison.

Finally, companies should concentrate on the strategic uses and value of particular assets and not allow their decisions to be driven by the value they might receive relative to their initial cost.     

Doorsteps Toward Political and Economic Openness: Testing the North-Wallis-Weingast Transition Framework

In this paper, we test the theoretical framework developed by North, Wallis, and Weingast (2009), who posit that limited-access societies need to meet three doorstep conditions before they can transit into open-access societies: (1) establishment of rule of law among elites, (2) adoption of perpetually existing organizations, and (3) political control of the military. We identify indicators reflecting these doorsteps and econometrically test their relationships with specific political and economic variables. We broadly confirm the logic behind the doorsteps as necessary conditions in the transition to open-access societies. The doorsteps influence economic and political processes, as well as each other, with varying intensities.     

How to make Dupire’s local volatility work with jumps

There are several (mathematical) reasons why Dupire’s formula fails in the non-diffusion setting. And yet, in practice, ad-hoc preconditioning of the option data works reasonably well. In this note, we attempt to explain why. In particular, we propose a regularization procedure of the option data so that Dupire’s local vol diffusion process recreates the correct option prices, even in manifest presence of jumps.     

Bridging the Gap between Interest Rates and Investments

The links between interest rates, cost of capital, hurdle rates, and capital allocation have been remarkably weak during the last few years. For instance, whereas the current yield on the World Government Bond Index is a paltry 1.2%, survey evidence suggests that the median reported investment hurdle rate of S&P 100 companies is as high as 18%. In this report, members of J.P Morgan's corporate finance advisory group explain why the cost of capital for most companies is unlikely to increase materially even if interest rates rise as projected. This suggests that companies have room to lower their hurdle rates. Moreover, as the authors argue, a reduction in hurdle rates is likely to be beneficial since excessively high hurdle rates can have the effect of reducing value by sacrificing profitable growth opportunities and increasing the firm's risk profile. The report concludes with a framework for corporate hurdle rates and capital allocation strategies designed to help companies make better investment decisions.     

What Causes the Positive Price-Turnover Correlation in European Housing Markets?

This paper examines what determines the correlation between prices and turnover in European housing markets. Using a panel vector autoregressive model, we find that there is a particularly strong feedback mechanism between prices and turnover. Momentum effects are another important reason why prices and turnover are correlated. Common underlying factors, such as GDP and interest rates, also explain part of the price-turnover correlation. The results in this paper imply that, to understand price and turnover dynamics, it is important to model prices and turnover as two interdependent processes. There is a considerable bias in the coefficient estimates of standard house price models if this dependency is not explicitly taken into account.     

Supplier Development Responsibility and NPD Project Outcomes: The Roles of Monetary Quantification of Differences and Supporting‐Detail Gathering

Firms increasingly rely on suppliers to perform tasks in new product development (NPD). Research has only recently begun to focus on the processes to manage this supplier development responsibility, and has hardly investigated how firms collect and analyze information regarding the cost and performance of alternative supplier offerings. Our study addresses this gap, through a field survey among 144 paired samples of project leaders and cost analysts involved in the same NPD projects. On the basis of literature and qualitative research, we conceptualize a substantive model. We first use a substantive validity assessment to vet the measures for the proposed constructs. We then test the substantive model with structural equation modeling using a multiple‐sample analysis. The results strongly show that monetary quantification of differences and detail gathering play significant roles in successfully leveraging supplier development responsibility. The findings support the hypothesis that the extent of development responsibility that suppliers have leads the development team to a more focused monetary quantification of the differences in alternative supplier offerings. Monetary quantification of differences has a significant, positive effect on the extent of supporting‐detail gathering and on the development speed of the project, whereas supporting‐detail gathering has a significant, positive effect on the product advantage of the new product as well as development speed. These findings are robust across the two functional perspectives. Our study complements the literature on interfirm control and monitoring by demonstrating the effects of selective and focused output controls.     

Managerial characteristics and performance of eurozone mutual funds

We investigate the relation between observable managerial characteristics (i.e., gender, age, tenure, professional qualifications, and advanced education) and performance in diversified equity mutual funds domiciled in the eurozone. We find that differences in the fund alphas are statistically significant only in groups based on age, tenure, and professional qualifications (i.e., chartered financial analyst [CFA]). We also find a significant positive relation for age and CFA certification with a fund's risk-adjusted performance and a significant negative relation for tenure. However, we find no significant effect for gender and advanced education (i.e., master of business administration [MBA]). The differences in risk taking are significantly related only with age and tenure; the former has a negative and the latter a positive relation with risk taking.     

From risk analysis in Europe to European risk analysis: the first ten years of SRA-E (1987-97)

Risk analysis has both a long past and a short history. This latter is written in the past 30 years. Technology's potential to create sometimes irreversible damage, as well as unprecedented improvement in standard of living, prompted the need for risk analysis. The Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) was created in the United States at the end of the 1970s. Its purpose was and is to bring together scientists and professionals concerned by issues of risk to health, safety and the environment, on an international and interdisciplinary basis. This article traces European participation in the SRA and recounts the founding of the chapter Society for Risk Analysis- Europe (SRA-E) in 1987. The composition of founding, Advisory and Executive Committees is given, as are themes and Directors of the seven Conferences held by SRA-E to date. SRA in 1987 counted 69 Europe-based members in 13 countries; in 1997, 25 countries are represented in SRA-Europe by 317 members. A trend is seen from a mainly geographic extension of SRA towards a more specific identity springing from risk research and management as practised today in Europe. The multicultural and multilingual experience of members, and their capacity for collaboration across national and disciplinary lines, are among European risk analysis' strongest assets. The present Journal of Risk Research can provide a forum for reinforcing new currents in risk analysis. The creation of a European university cursus in risk studies is recommended, as is a stronger role for SRA-E as a body of expertise. A call is made for risk analysis sustainable in national and cultural contexts removed from those that have developed today's art and practice: needed are appropriate conceptualizations of risk, management methods, and indicators of success. The Mediterranean basin and North Africa are targeted as areas for development and new learning for risk analysts, communicators, managers and researchers in the 21st century.     

A transform approach to compute prices and Greeks of barrier options driven by a class of Lévy processes

In this paper we propose a transform method to compute the prices and Greeks of barrier options driven by a class of Lévy processes. We derive analytical expressions for the Laplace transforms in time of the prices and sensitivities of single barrier options in an exponential Lévy model with hyper-exponential jumps. Inversion of these single Laplace transforms yields rapid, accurate results. These results are employed to construct an approximation of the prices and sensitivities of barrier options in exponential generalized hyper-exponential Lévy models. The latter class includes many of the Lévy models employed in quantitative finance such as the variance gamma (VG), KoBoL, generalized hyperbolic, and the normal inverse Gaussian (NIG) models. Convergence of the approximating prices and sensitivities is proved. To provide a numerical illustration, this transform approach is compared with Monte Carlo simulation in cases where the driving process is a VG and a NIG Lévy process. Parameters are calibrated to Stoxx50E call options.