Selecting credit rating models: a cross-validation-based comparison of discriminatory power

In commercial banking, various statistical models for corporate credit rating have been theoretically promoted and applied to bank-specific credit portfolios. In this paper, we empirically compare and test the performance of a wide range of parametric and nonparametric credit rating model approaches in a statistically coherent way, based on a ‘real-world’ data set. We repetitively (k times) split a large sample of industrial firms’ default data into disjoint training and validation subsamples. For all model types, we estimate k out-of-sample discriminatory power measures, allowing us to compare the models coherently. We observe that more complex and nonparametric approaches, such as random forest, neural networks, and generalized additive models, perform best in-sample. However, comparing k out-of-sample cross-validation results, these models overfit and lose some of their predictive power. Rather than improving discriminatory power, we perceive their major contribution to be their usefulness as diagnostic tools for the selection of rating factors and the development of simpler, parametric models.

Identifying the effects of an exchange rate depreciation on country risk: Evidence from a natural experiment

A natural experiment is used to study exchange rate depreciation and perceived sovereign risk. France suspended coinage of silver in 1876 provoking a significant exogenous depreciation of all silver standard countries versus gold standard currencies like the British pound – the currency in which their debt was payable. The evidence suggests an exchange rate depreciation can significantly increase sovereign risk if a country is exposed to foreign currency debt. We implement a difference-in-differences estimator and find that the average silver country's spread on hard currency debt increased over ten percent relative to non-silver countries.     

Evaluating the bases of supplier segmentation: A review and taxonomy

A taxonomy of segmentation bases is presented which builds a multi-disciplinary approach to the categorization of suppliers. Supplier segmentation, from a purchasing perspective, still appears to be in the early stages of providing a coherent strategic intent behind supplier assessment. Whilst fragmentary in nature, current portfolio models are grouped into two principal taxonomic constructs of power and dependence and relational factors. In particular, the prevalent use of transaction cost economics (TCE) in portfolio modelling provides a foundation for purchasers to appraise risks from supplier opportunism. We augment existing approaches with reference to inter-organisational theory and the resource-based view to show different modes of inter-firm value creation that act as constituents of a strategic intent for segmentation. Our resulting taxonomy draws together a holistic view of supplier segmentation covering supply market conditions, product/service characteristics, supplier characteristics, buyer characteristics, and buyer-supplier relational factors.     

Risk structure of interest rates: an empirical analysis for Deutschemark‐denominated bonds

This paper empirically studies the risk structure of interest rates for Deutschemark‐denominated bonds. For this purpose, we estimate term structures of interest rates using the parsimonious fitting function of Nelson and Siegel (1987) for virtually risk free Government bonds and five different rating categories classified by Moody's ratings (Aaa, Aa, A, Baa, Ba). The sample period covers the time interval from July 1990 to December 1996. We investigate the pricing errors resulting from our estimation procedure and analyse credit spreads over the term structure of Government bonds.     

THE IMPACT OF FEMALE WORK ON FAMILY INCOME DISTRIBUTION IN THE UNITED STATES: BLACK-WHITE DIFFERENTIALS*

Using data from the 1973 National Survey of Family Growth, the present study analyzes, for blacks and whites separately, the impact of female market activity on the inequality of the income distribution among households. The family life cycle is divided into three stages, according to the presence and age of children: (1) the interval between marriage and the birth of the first child, (2) the child-rearing interval, and (3) a final period which begins when all the children have reached school age. Using the coefficient of variation as an indicator of inequality, the empirical results show that in period 1, the contribution of white working wives has a large equalizing impact, while that of their black counterparts results in a slight increase in dispersion. In the child-rearing and post child-rearing stages, the labor supply of mothers decreases family income inequality by a small amount for both black and white households. A decomposition of the squared coefficient of variation of family income is presented to aid in the interpretation of these findings.     

6 Does Kant Have Anything to Teach Us about Environmental Ethics?

A bstract .   Immanuel Kant's thought typically is represented as hostile to environmental concerns, but his aesthetics offers significant resources for environmental ethics. His account of the disinterestedness of taste raises the possibility of a manner of motivating a noninstrumental and responsive—rather than self-interested and consumerist—attitude toward nature. The aesthetic consciousness thus can help situate us within rather than pit us against the natural world. Kant's thinking about the beautiful and the sublime point to an ambiguous conception of subjectivity, a picture of the subject who experiences itself both as immersed within a meaningful world and as raised above a world to which it is morally superior. Such a conception may orient investigations in environmental philosophy by providing a more realistic view of the relationship between human beings and nature than do either dualistic or monistic theories.     

CONSUMERS' INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AND MONETARY POLICY IN EUROPE

This article analyses the effects of monetary policy decisions on inflation expectations of European consumers. Using a novel approach, I convert qualitative survey responses of consumers in various European countries into a quantitative time series of inflation expectations. I investigate the effects of unanticipated movements in interest rates and inflation on inflation expectations across European countries. I inter alia seek to explore whether the reaction differs of consumers in countries with more credible central banks than those in less credible countries.     

Heteroscedasticity and the use of Box–Cox transformations

Direct and inverse power Box–Cox transformations are used to characterize the form of heteroscedasticity in models where the variables themselves are subjected to direct Box–Cox transformations. Resulting formulations are extended to take serial correlation simultaneousy into account.     

The impact of the national minimum wage on the apparel industry

This analysis of the NMW’s initial impact in the apparel industry focuses on organisational and institutional factors in explaining the effects on pay and related issues. The NMW had a marked effect on national terms and conditions, in particular raising the minimum earnings level. At the local level, it impacted directly on the pay of a small number of employees in almost half the 42 organisations surveyed in the East Midlands and Northern Ireland. These tended to be the larger employing units facing foreign competition and selling into the domestic market. Also, in some workplaces, the NMW adversely affected the piecework system. The reaction of local management to these changes is discussed.