Asset prices, exchange rates and the current account

This paper analyses the role of asset prices in comparison to other factors, in particular exchange rates, as a driver of the US trade balance. It employs a Bayesian structural VAR model that requires imposing only a minimum of economically meaningful sign restrictions. We find that equity market shocks and housing price shocks have been major determinants of the US current account in the past, accounting for up to 30% of the movements of the US trade balance at a horizon of 20 quarters. By contrast, shocks to the real exchange rate have been less relevant, explaining about 9% and exerting a more temporary effect on the US trade balance. Our findings suggest that large exchange rate movements may not necessarily be the key element of an adjustment of today's large current account imbalances, and that in particular relative global asset price changes could be a potent source of adjustment.     

When Satisfied Consumers Do Not Return: Variety Seeking's Effect on Short‐ and Long‐Term Intentions

Even satisfied consumers frequently do not come back, which challenges loyalty theory and marketing practice. It is reasoned that variety‐seeking tendencies will significantly affect short‐term revisit intentions, whereas satisfaction and regret will mostly determine long‐term revisit intentions. Thus, the influence of satisfaction on loyalty is hypothesized to be critically dependent on the time perspective of the intentions, now or later, and variety seeking. A representative survey (N = 400) in eight Spanish cities supported these predictions. Multivariate moderated‐mediation analyses revealed that indeed the influence of satisfaction, regret, and variety seeking critically depends on the time perspective of the behavioral intentions.     

Empirics of currency crises: A duration analysis approach

This paper empirically analyzes the origins of currency crises for a group of OECD economies from 1970 through 1998. We apply duration analysis to examine how the probability of a currency crisis depends on the length of non‐crisis periods, contagion channels, and macroeconomic fundamentals. Our findings confirm the negative duration dependence of a currency crisis—the likelihood of speculative attack sharply increases at the beginning of non‐crisis periods and then declines over time until it abruptly rises again. The results also indicate the hazard of a crisis increase with high values of the volatility of unemployment rates, inflation rates, contagion factors—which mostly work through trade channels, unemployment rates, real effective exchange rate, trade openness, and size of economy. To address concerns regarding validity of the identified crisis episodes, we exploit crisis episodes that are identified by a more objective approach based on the extreme value theory. Our results are robust under various specifications including two different crisis event sets that are identified on monthly and quarterly basis.     

How Positive and Neo‐Aristotelian Leadership Can Contribute to Ethical Leadership

Virtuous leadership is crucial for advancing leadership ethics. By comparing Positive Leadership and its notion of virtuousness with neo‐Aristotelian leadership based on virtue, this article sheds light on this research field. We expound on the differences and commonalities between the two and present possibilities of how they can enrich each other and further ethical leadership theory. Our findings concern the purported Aristotelian roots of virtuousness, the relative strengths and weaknesses of the positive and the neo‐Aristotelian approaches, and the interplay between technical skills and ethical excellence in leadership. We propose the adoption of practical managerial tools and procedures from Positive Leadership, making them dependent upon the virtues to achieve flourishing within organizations and society at large. © 2018 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Methodological ignorance: A comment on field experiments and methodological intolerance

Glenn Harrison [Journal of Economic Methodology, 2013, 20, 103–117] discusses four related forms of methodological intolerance with respect to field experiments: field experiments should rely on some form of randomization, should be disconnected from theory, the concept of causality should only be defined in terms of observables, and the role of laboratory experiments is dismissed. As is often the case, the cause of intolerance is ignorance, as it is here. To acquire knowledge about potential influences, which we need for both the evaluation of internal and external validity of experimental results, we cannot do without theory. A purely empiricist (inductive) methodology will be unable to give us sufficient understanding of the validity of these results. An account of causality only based on directly observed things, is an account based on factual influences only. This account will be too restricted, because it will not deal with the unobserved potential influences, which we need – again – for the evaluation of the internal and external validity of the experimental results. Every investigation in a laboratory that is feasible regarding a specific potential influence may lead to deep knowledge. It is simply scientifically irrational to dismiss this kind of knowledge.     

Entwickeln sich wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Forschung und Politikberatung auseinander?

Most German economists show strong patterns of professional specialisation. In their work, they either focus on basic research or on policy consultancy. The evidence provided by Haucap und Mödl has been used to question work incentives in academia. The suggestion to change work incentives, however, is not supported by Richter, who rather calls into question the German tradition of research funding. He argues that Germany should devote more competitive funding to research projects and less to institutions. Schmidt et al. explore the question the other way around: do policy consultants publish in top journals? They conclude that they do. Güth/Kliemt show how precarious and limited our (technologically useful) knowledge is. The discussion of alternative policies among economic experts should be used to tease out the controversial arguments to allow for better informed political judgements. Wagner/Fratzscher take a historical view, showing that when modern economic research (and economic research institutes) apply a more pluralistic paradigm than that which prevailed in Germany for a long period after the Second World War, economic research will automatically have a more significant impact on politics, since policy advisors will produce more varied advice with the potential for realisation. Koll also claims that policy advice must not be based on a single supply-side oriented mainstream point of view. By drawing lessons from the crisis, economics must identify a new mainstream providing reliable guidance and policy advice.     

How successful is the G7 in managing exchange rates?

The paper assesses the extent to which the Group of Seven (G7) has been successful in its management of major currencies since the 1970s. Using an event-study approach, the paper finds evidence that the G7 has been overall effective in moving the US dollar, yen and euro in the intended direction at horizons of up to three months after G7 meetings, but not at longer horizons. While the success of the G7 is partly dependent on the market environment, it is also to a significant degree endogenous to the policy process itself. In particular the reputation and credibility of the G7, as well as its ability to communicate a consensus among individual G7 members, are important determinants for the G7's ability to manage major currencies. The paper concludes by analyzing the factors that help the G7 build reputation and consensus, and by discussing the implications for global economic governance.     

The mediating role of leader–member exchange: a study of job satisfaction and turnover intentions in temporary work

This paper focuses on turnover intentions in temporary work. Specifically, we analyse whether job satisfaction and leader–member exchange (LMX) play the same role as antecedents of turnover intentions for both temporary and permanent employees. Results from a total‐effects moderation model based on a survey of 593 individuals placed by a temporary work agency suggest that temporary work lessens the impact that high job satisfaction has in terms of reducing turnover intentions. Furthermore, while for permanent employees, high‐quality LMX relationships play a central role in the link between job satisfaction and turnover intentions; for temporary employees, job satisfaction is less important in the formation of high‐quality LMX relationships. Therefore, we contribute to knowledge on turnover intentions in temporary work by showing that within this context, turnover intentions cannot be directly remedied by high job satisfaction and that temporary work inhibits LMX's reinforcing role in the relationship between job satisfaction and turnover intentions.     

HOW CERTAIN ARE DUTCH HOUSEHOLDS ABOUT FUTURE INCOME? AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

The precautionary saving literature shows that income uncertainty increases savings and wealth. To estimate the magnitude of this effect, we need a measure of income uncertainty. This paper empirically analyzes subjective income uncertainty in The Netherlands. Data come from a large Dutch household survey. We measure income uncertainty by asking questions on expected household income in the next twelve months. First, we describe the data and investigate the relationship between the measure of income uncertainty and a number of household characteristics. Controlling for information on expected income changes, we find strong relationships between labor-market characteristics and the subjective income uncertainty as reported by the heads of the households. Second, we compare income uncertainty in The Netherlands with income uncertainty in the U.S. and Italy. It becomes evident that perceived income uncertainty is smaller in The Netherlands than it is in the U.S.