Oil shocks and endogenous markups: results from an estimated euro area DSGE model

This paper estimates a linearised DSGE model for the euro area. The model is New Keynesian and allows for a role for oil usage and endogenous price markups. The importance of shocks to monetary policy and oil prices is estimated to have declined in the post-1990 period, in line with the higher predictability of policy and the fall in the persistence and—to a lesser extent—variability of oil disturbances. Counterfactual exercises show that oil efficiency gains would alleviate the inflationary and contractionary consequences of oil shocks, while higher wage flexibility would help ease the impact on real output at the expense of larger inflationary pressures. While we report evidence of “countercyclical” price markups, the rise in markups induced by an oil disturbance is not found to considerably amplify the inflationary and contractionary effects of the shock. The paper discusses the policy implications of our empirical results for the euro area economy.     

Profit margins and business cycles in the Brazilian industry: a panel data study

The paper investigates the relationship between profit margins and business cycle in the Brazilian industry during the 1992–1998 period, taking as reference a dynamic panel data model founded around a conjectural variation framework. The empirical results indicate procyclical behaviour of profit margins for the aggregate business cycle but is less clear in the case of sector-specific business cycle variables. Among the most robust results, one can highlight the roles of lagged profitability and import intensity and the negligible role of union density. Schmalensee in (American Economic Review 75, pp. 341–51) outlined three theoretical interpretations associated with the empirical model (classical, revisionist and managerial). Econometric tests on the related restrictions do not allow one to exclusively legitimate any of the three interpretations.     

Employment Flows,Capital Mobility,and Policy Analysis

This article extends Hopenhayn and Rogerson's analysis of firing taxes by introducing a flexible form of capital and considering transitionary dynamics. The article finds that capital is not important for understanding the long run and welfare effects of firing taxes. However, capital is crucial for determining the short run consequences of eliminating this type of policy.     

实施CMMS的五项原则及其使用——一个石化工厂的案例研究

大多数计算机维修管理系统(CMMS)没有起到管理系统应有的作用,或者实施以后限制了管理的能力.另一个重要的事实是:如果实施时间少于二年,大约有50%的CMMS实施是注定要失败的.笔者采用Peter Senge的观点,把学习组织(Learning Organisations)作为新方法来实施和使用CMMS.探讨如何成功地把这个方法应用于Rio de Janeiro天然气化工厂,保证全面使用CMMS.     

Information and Export Performance

Exporters’ performance in a given market may affect their exports to the rest of the world. Importers base their future transaction decisions upon the information revealed by exporter’s performance in other countries. This paper estimates significant effects from these information spillovers on the export patterns of fourteen developing countries, and somewhat smaller effects for a sample of exporters from six developed countries. On the other hand, it is in developed countries’ markets that the largest information spillovers are generated. Indeed, increases in market share in the United States allows for significant increases in exports to the rest-of-the world associated with information spillovers. But developing country markets could also generate important amounts of information for regional exporters. Hong Kong is the top market in terms of generating information for other East Asian exporters, and the Argentinean and Chilean markets play an important role for exporters from other Latin American countries.

Trade, Production, and Protection Database, 1976-2004

The database described in this article provides researcherswith a broad set of data on trade, production, and protectionfor 28 manufacturing sectors at the three-digit level of theInternational Standard Industrial Classification, Revision 2.The database covers up to 100 developing and developed countriesover the period 1976–2004, but data availability variesby country and year. The trade, production, and protection databaseis available online and can be freely accessed through the WorldBank trade website.     

Optimal fiscal policy in a dynamic multicountry world with public services

The authors construct a dynamic one‐good multicountry growth model with productive government spending and perfect capital mobility to study fiscal interdependence among countries. In the case of a source‐based tax, it is found that there is no strategic interaction and that the equilibrium spending/tax mix coincides with the optimal one. In the case of a residence‐based tax system, however, there is strategic interaction across countries and, under noncooperation, countries tend to spend and tax over and above the optimal Pigouvian level.     

Are price limits on futures markets that cool? Evidence from the Brazilian Mercantile and Futures Exchange

This article investigates the impact of price limits on theBrazilian futures markets using high frequency data. The aimis to identify whether there is an ex ante cool-off or magneteffect. For that purpose, we examine a tick-by-tick data setthat includes all contracts on the São Paulo stock indexfutures traded on the Brazilian Mercantile and Futures Exchange(BM&F) from January 1997 to December 1999. The results indicatethat, altogether, there is a dominant cool-off effect in playand that the latter is much stronger for the floor rather thanceiling price. This explains why we observe more hits to theceiling rather than to the floor in our sample despite the factit covers one of the most turbulent periods for emerging markets.We then build a trading strategy that accounts for the cool-offeffect in the conditional mean so as to demonstrate that thelatter has not only statistical but also economic significance.The Sharpe ratio is indeed way superior to the buy-and-holdbenchmarks we consider.     

Short-selling restrictions,takeovers and the wealth of long-run shareholders

In this paper we consider a situation in which a firm may be able to influence the investors’ ability to short-sell its stock. We analyze the effect short-selling restrictions have on the market price and the subsequent effect generated on the market for corporate control. More precisely, we argue that short-selling restrictions may lead to exclusion of pessimistic beliefs and may therefore inflate prices. Thus, if a company is poorly managed and has a stock with strong short-selling restrictions, a profitable takeover will not emerge because of the high stock price. The raider may not have the incentives to acquire the company as its price will be above its fundamental value, conditional on takeover, even accounting for the potential benefits of takeover. We then argue that such effects are detrimental to long-run shareholders and that a value-maximizing strategy is to have a stock with no short-selling restrictions.     

Britain as a debtor: Indian sterling balances, 1940–53

The British war effort in the Second World War depended on US Lend‐Lease and the accumulation of sterling balances by other countries, including the Empire. By the end of the war outstanding balances were equivalent to 60 per cent of British net receipts under Lend‐Lease. Of the total sterling balances, about a third was accumulated by India. This article seeks to evaluate the costs incurred by India in the reduction of balances after the war. The accumulation of balances and their use to repatriate India's sterling debt is described. British efforts to convince India to accept a partial cancellation of the balances are analysed, singling out the crucial role of Keynes. The negotiations after independence are detailed, including releases, transfers to Pakistan, settlement of pensions, purchase of military stores, and gold sales. The possible contribution of British divestment to reduce outstanding balances is assessed. The Indian case is compared with those of other holders, such as Portugal, Brazil, Argentina, and Egypt. The links between the accumulation of sterling balances and inflation are considered. In the end there was a significant reduction in the purchasing power of sterling balances, but not for the reasons anticipated by London.