A note on uncertainty, liquidity, and stock prices

This paper presents theory and some empirical evidence on the relationship between the demands for money and stocks and bonds in the presence of changes in the volatility of money growth. Theoretically, it is shown that with variable velocity, an increase in the conditional variance of money growth triggers an increase in the demand for money relative to stocks and bonds with a consequent reduction in stock and bond prices. Empirically, the model only performs well in the dimension of stocks and bond prices moving in the same direction.     

Smoke in the (Tariff) Water

As the economic crisis deepened and widened, fears of a return to the protectionist spiral of the 1930s become more common. However, an important difference between the 1930s and today is the existence of the World Trade Organization and the legal limits it imposes on the protectionist responses members can pursue. The first objective of this paper is to assess the extent to which applied tariffs can be legally raised without violating bound tariff obligations and compare it with what is economically feasible. The second objective is the examination of whether individual countries have taken advantage of these legal tariff hikes as protectionist responses during economic crises, after the creation of the WTO. Results suggest that the policy space left when looking at what is economically possible is indeed quite large. However, in the recent past little of the available policy space has been used by countries suffering from an economic crisis.     

Knowledge and information flows in supply chains: A study on pharmaceutical companies

A great deal of attention in the supply chain management literature is devoted to study material and demand information flows and their coordination. But in many situations, supply chains may convey information from different nature, they may be an important channel companies have to deliver knowledge, or specifically, technical information to the market. This paper studies the technical flow and highlights its particular requirements. Drawing upon a qualitative field research, it studies pharmaceutical companies, since those companies face a very specific challenge: consumers do not have discretion over their choices, ethical drugs must be prescribed by physicians to be bought and used by final consumers. Technical information flow is rich, and must be redundant and early delivered at multiple points. Thus, apart from the regular material channel where products and order information flow, those companies build a specialized information channel, developed to communicate to those who need it to create demand. Conclusions can be extended to supply chains where products and services are complex and decision makers must be clearly informed about technology-related information.     

Export promotion agencies: Do they work?

The number of national export promotion agencies (EPAs) has tripled over the last two decades. While more countries made them part of their export strategy, studies criticized their efficacy in developing countries. EPAs were retooled, partly in response to these critiques. This paper studies the impact of today's EPAs and their strategies, based on new survey data covering 103 developing and developed countries. Results suggest that on average they have a statistically significant effect on exports. Our identification strategies highlight the importance of EPA services for overcoming foreign trade barriers and solving asymmetric information problems associated with exports of heterogeneous goods. There are also strong diminishing returns, suggesting that as far as EPAs are concerned, small is beautiful.     

Ramsey Pricing and Regulator's Social Welfare Weights: An Empirical Application

The paper aims at uncovering the implicit regulator's social welfare weights within a generic Ramsey pricing structure allowing for distinct weights. The methodology is applied to U.S. water utilities for residential and non-residential water services, implying that the weights were virtually identical and thus no cross-subsidies occurred across those goods.     

Tariff Reductions in the Presence of Foreign Direct Investment

This paper argues that the welfare effects of trade liberalization in the presence of foreign direct investment obtained under perfect competition cannot be extended to imperfectly competitive markets. In the Heckscher-Ohlin model, trade liberalization may be paradoxically immiserizing when the traditional welfare-increasing result is corrected for the change in foreign capital revenue. Under imperfect competition this cannot occur, except under rather implausible assumptions. Indeed, a tariff reduction is expected to increase welfare when the welfare indicator is corrected for the presence of foreign capital, regardless of the type of market structure and the form of competitive rivalry.     

The determinants of a cross market arbitrage opportunity: theory and evidence for the European bond market

This paper examines the determinants of cross-platform arbitrage profits. We develop a structural model that enables us to decompose the likelihood of an arbitrage opportunity into three distinct factors: the fixed cost to trade the opportunity, the level at which one of the platforms delays a price update and the impact of the order flow on the quoted prices (inventory and asymmetric information effects). We then investigate the predictions from the theoretical model for the European Bond market with the estimation of a probit model. Our main finding is that the results found in the empirical part corroborate strongly the predictions from the structural model. The event of a cross market arbitrage opportunity has a certain degree of predictability where an optimal ex ante scenario is represented by a low level of spreads on both platforms, a time of the day close to the end of trading hours and a high volume of trade.     

The protectionist bias of duty drawbacks: evidence from Mercosur

In a political-economy setting where tariffs and duty drawbacks are endogenously chosen through industry lobbying, it is shown that full duty-drawbacks are granted to exporters who use imported intermediates in their production. This in turn decreases their incentives to counter-lobby against high tariffs on their inputs. In equilibrium, higher tariffs will be observed on these goods. The creation of a regional block will change the political equilibrium. Duty-drawbacks will be eliminated on intra-regional exports, which in turn will lead to lower tariffs for goods used as inputs by intra-regional exporters. Evidence from Mercosur suggests that the elimination of duty-drawbacks for intra-regional exports led to increased counter-lobbying by users of intermediate products. In its absence the common external tariff would have been on average 3.5 percentage points (25 percent) higher.