Non-monetary sales promotion effects on credit cards

This study fills an important gap in the literature by exploring the effects of the attractiveness of a non-monetary promotion with premiums on credit card purchase intention and brand selection. Two experimental studies involving 386 undergraduates were done. Non-monetary sales promotions with attractive premiums have a positive influence on the credit card purchase intention, compared to non-monetary sales promotions with unattractive premiums. On brand choice, non-monetary sales promotions with attractive premiums increase the likelihood of brand choice promoted. Premiums attractiveness is an important variable in the evaluation of a promotional offer that aims to increase the intention purchase and motivate the selection of brand. This study helps managers in choosing the types of premiums that are valued by consumers in a promotion. Most of the studies explore monetary promotions, while this study contributes to literature by exploring the gap about the effects of non-monetary sales promotions on purchase intention and brand selection, especially in the bank services environment.     

Energy prices,substitution, and optimal borrowing in the short run: An analysis of adjustment in oil importing developing countries

The paper discusses optimal short-term borrowing in response to an increase in the price of imported inputs. The rationale for borrowing lies in the increase in substitution possibilities in production (between imported and domestic inputs) and in consumption (between traded and non-traded goods) as the economy adjusts its structure to the new prices. A typology of LDCs and the oil price increases in the 70's are used to illustrate the results of the model, which are compared with the actual increase in borrowing during the period.     

Congestion pricing,transit subsidies and dedicated bus lanes: Efficient and practical solutions to congestion

We analyze urban congestion management policies through numerical analysis of a simple model that: allows users to choose between car, bus or an outside option (biking); consider congestion interactions between cars and buses; and allow for optimization of frequency, vehicle size, spacing between stops and percentage of capacity to be dedicated to bus lanes. We compare resulting service levels, social welfare and consumer surplus for a number of different policies and find that: (i) dedicated bus lanes is a better stand-alone policy than transit subsidization or congestion pricing. The latter is marginally better than subsidization but has a negative impact in consumer surplus. (ii) Efficient transit subsidies are quite large since in many cases first-best transit price is negative; establishing dedicated bus lanes or implementing congestion pricing render subsidies unnecessary for high demand levels. (iii) Both subsidization and dedicated bus lanes would count with public support while congestion pricing would probably encounter opposition. (iv) Transit subsidies and/or congestion pricing do not induce large changes on optimal bus size, frequency, circulation speeds and spacing between stops in mixed-traffic conditions: dedicated bus lanes do. (v) In all cases analyzed, revenues from congestion pricing are enough to cover transit subsidies; the optimal percentage of capacity that should be devoted for bus traffic is around one third.     

An alternative approach to estimating demand: Neural network regression with conditional volatility for high frequency air passenger arrivals

In this paper we provide an alternative approach to analyze the demand for international tourism in the Balearic Islands, Spain, by using a neural network model that incorporates time-varying conditional volatility. We consider daily air passenger arrivals to Palma de Mallorca, Ibiza and Mahon, which are located in the islands of Mallorca, Ibiza and Menorca, respectively, as a proxy for international tourism demand for the Balearic Islands. Spain is a world leader in terms of total international tourist arrivals and receipts, and Mallorca is one of the most popular destinations in Spain. For tourism management and marketing, it is essential to forecast high frequency international tourist demand accurately. As it is important to provide sensible international tourism demand forecast intervals, it is also necessary to model their variances accurately. Moreover, time-varying variances provide useful information regarding the risks associated with variations in international tourist arrivals.     

The innovation process as a complex structure with multilevel rules

Increasingly, innovation is conceived in a context of conventions or rules and complexity. However, there is a need for a theoretical basis that describes the innovation process based on complexity. In this essay, we propose a multilevel micro-meso-macro framework that aims to meet this need and further the discussion on complexity. In this framework, the rule is adopted as an analytical concept and used to establish a bridge between the several theories employed. Two gaps are identified in the innovation process: the first is related to the simplicity with which complexity is generally treated, and the second refers to a lack of focus on the rules embedded in the theories used in innovation. The goal of this theoretical essay is to propose a multilevel micro-meso-macro framework, based on the rules and principles of complexity, which can be used to analyze the innovation process. As a result, we propose a new framework in which the innovation rules and the interactions between those rules are detailed and based on principles of complexity.     

Informality,Size and Regulation: Theory and an Application to Egypt

The paper shows how, when the enforceability of regulationsis size-sensitive, price competition can lock firms into informality and,thus, smallness, depending on the form of the production function. In thatcontext, exogenous "help" packages targeted to informal firms "promote"micro and small enterprises (i.e., increase their numbers) but do not"develop" them (i.e., foster their growth). The "help" only generates ashort-term span of abnormal profits for existing informal firms, and a long-term income transfer toward informal-market consumers. The model istested in the context of Egypt's micro and small enterprise sector.     

FORECASTING REALIZED VOLATILITY WITH LINEAR AND NONLINEAR UNIVARIATE MODELS

Abstract In this paper, we consider a nonlinear model based on neural networks as well as linear models to forecast the daily volatility of the S&P 500 and FTSE 100 futures. As a proxy for daily volatility, we consider a consistent and unbiased estimator of the integrated volatility that is computed from high‐frequency intraday returns. We also consider a simple algorithm based on bagging (bootstrap aggregation) in order to specify the models analysed in this paper.