Regional versus global production networks: where does Latin America stand?

This article quantifies the effects of the Latin American Integration Association (LAIA) and the Southern Common Market (Mercosur) on the trade of intermediate goods and also on the trade of final goods. It is the first article to investigate whether increasing imports of intermediate goods from different regions to Latin America have led to higher exports of final and intermediate goods. The article uses sectoral data for trade in goods between 11 LAIA members over the period 1991–2008. The main results indicate evidence of increasing regional production networks, which have strengthened in the 2000s. Moreover, the findings show evidence of the emergence of global production networks, especially with respect to intermediate imports from China.     

eBay’s anatomy

We use a new US-firm-level dataset covering all domestic and international sales made through eBay, an online marketplace, to provide insights about firm heterogeneity in online international trade. One is that the share of firms that export is surprisingly high, at 85%.     

Segmentation of low-cost flights users at secondary airports

Low-cost carrier services are important for many tourist destinations. However, there is little information about the characteristics of travellers using low-cost airlines, and their flight preferences. The typical segmentation of air travellers is business versus leisure travellers; and business versus tourist fares. We use segmentation analysis focusing on low-cost travellers’ valuations of various flight attributes and trip-related characteristics, most notably those related to destinations, based on a sample of foreign travellers who used Girona Airport, Spain.     

Unrestricted Market Access for Sub-Saharan Africa: How Much Is It Worth and Who Pays?

Initiatives to improve market access for the poorest countrieshave recently been announced by the EU, Japan and the USA. Thispaper assesses the impact of these initiatives and others thatmight be taken for a subset of 37 Sub-Saharan African countries(SSA-37). We find that fully unrestricted access to all theQUAD countries (EU, USA, Canada and Japan) would produce substantialgains for SSA-37, leading to a 14% increase in non-oil exports($2.5 billion) and boosting real incomes in SSA-37 by about1%. Most of these gains would come from preferential accessto the highly protected Japanese and European agricultural markets.The smallness of SSA-37 ensures that the costs of trade diversionfor the QUAD, other developing countries and the world as awhole are negligible.     

Gender invariance of dignity in non-terminal elderly patients with chronic diseases: a multicentric study

Quality & Quantity - The Dignity construct, originally developed in end-of-life care, includes perceptions, cognitions and emotions related to the quality of being worthy of esteem or respect....     

Modeling and forecasting short‐term interest rates: The benefits of smooth regimes,macroeconomic variables,and bagging

In this paper we propose a smooth transition tree model for both the conditional mean and variance of the short‐term interest rate process. The estimation of such models is addressed and the asymptotic properties of the quasi‐maximum likelihood estimator are derived. Model specification is also discussed. When the model is applied to the US short‐term interest rate we find: (1) leading indicators for inflation and real activity are the most relevant predictors in characterizing the multiple regimes' structure; (2) the optimal model has three limiting regimes. Moreover, we provide empirical evidence of the power of the model in forecasting the first two conditional moments when it is used in connection with bootstrap aggregation (bagging). Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Robust central banking under wage bargaining: Is monetary policy transparency beneficial?

We study the role of transparency in an environment of robust monetary policy under wage bargaining. The standard view from the game-theoretical literature is that, with unionised labour markets, monetary policy transparency is unambiguously “bad” (it induces increases in wage and price inflation, unemployment and may lead to higher inflation uncertainty). The empirical literature is instead ambiguous about the macroeconomic effects of transparency. By recasting the earlier theory into a robust monetary policy environment, and focusing transparency on the uncertainty about the preference for price stability, we show that the macroeconomic effects of transparency are more favourable than normally found. The impact on nominal wages, inflation and real variables (real wages and unemployment) is not parameter-free but depends on the public's informedness about this coefficient. The impact on real variables is found to disappear in case unions do not internalise the effect of wage decisions on the economy (i.e. in the case of atomistic unions). Finally, we find that the effect of transparency on inflation uncertainty is more complex than in the standard approach. We show that transparency may have the beneficial effect of reducing inflation variability not only when monetary uncertainty is low (as previously reported), but also when monetary uncertainty exceeds an upper threshold.     

Housing, credit, and real activity cycles: Characteristics and comovement

This paper describes the characteristics and comovement of cycles in house prices, residential investment, credit, interest rates, and real activity in advanced economies during the past 25 years. Stylized facts and regularities are uncovered using a dynamic generalized factor model and spectral techniques. House price cycles are found to lead credit and real activity over the long term, while in the short to medium term the relationship varies across countries. Interest rates tend to lag other cycles at all time horizons. Although global factors are important, the US business cycle, housing cycle and interest rate cycle generally lead the respective cycles in other countries over all time horizons, while the US credit cycle leads mainly over the long term.     

A neural network demand system with heteroskedastic errors

In this paper we consider estimation of demand systems with flexible functional forms, allowing an error term with a general conditional heteroskedasticity function that depends on observed covariates, such as demographic variables. We propose a general model that can be estimated either by quasi-maximum likelihood (in the case of exogenous regressors) or generalized method of moments (GMM) if the covariates are endogenous. The specification proposed in the paper nests several demand functions in the literature and the results can be applied to the recently proposed Exact Affine Stone Index (EASI) demand system of [Lewbel, A., Pendakur, K., 2008. Tricks with Hicks: The EASI implicit Marshallian demand system for unobserved heterogeneity and flexible Engel curves. American Economic Review (in press)]. Furthermore, flexible nonlinear expenditure elasticities can be estimated.