Dynamic Costs of the Draft

Abstract. We propose a dynamic general‐equilibrium model with human capital accumulation to evaluate the economic consequences of compulsory services (such as military draft or social work). Our analysis identifies a so far ignored dynamic cost arising from distortions in time allocation over the life cycle. We provide conservative estimates for the excess burden that arises when the government relies on forced labor rather than on income taxation to finance public expenditures. Our results suggest that eliminating the draft could produce considerable dynamic gains, both in terms of GDP and lifetime utility.     

Portfolio selection with two-stage preferences

We propose a model of portfolio selection under ambiguity, based on a two-stage valuation procedure which disentangles ambiguity and ambiguity aversion. The model does not imply “extreme pessimism” from the part of the investor, as multiple priors models do. Furthermore, its analytical tractability allows to study complex problems thus far not analyzed, such as joint uncertainty about means and variances of returns.     

Intellectual Property, Architecture, and the Management of Technological Transitions: Evidence from Microsoft Corporation

Many studies highlight the challenges facing incumbent firms in responding effectively to major technological transitions. Though some authors argue that these challenges can be overcome by firms possessing what have been called dynamic capabilities, little work has described in detail the critical resources that these capabilities leverage or the processes through which these resources accumulate and evolve. This paper explores these issues through an in‐depth exploratory case study of one firm that has demonstrated consistently strong performance in an industry that is highly dynamic and uncertain. The focus for the present study is Microsoft, the leading firm in the software industry. The focus on Microsoft is motivated by providing evidence that the firm's product performance has been consistently strong over a period of time in which there have been several major technological transitions—one indicator that a firm possesses dynamic capabilities. This argument is supported by showing that Microsoft's performance when developing new products in response to one of these transitions—the growth of the World Wide Web—was superior to a sample of both incumbents and new entrants. Qualitative data are presented on the roots of Microsoft's dynamic capabilities, focusing on the way that the firm develops, stores, and evolves its intellectual property. Specifically, Microsoft codifies knowledge in the form of software “components,” which can be leveraged across multiple product lines over time and accessed by firms developing complementary products. The present paper argues that the process of componentization, the component “libraries” that result, the architectural frameworks that define how these components interact, and the processes through which these components are evolved to address environmental changes represent critical resources that enable the firm to respond to major technological transitions. These arguments are illustrated by describing Microsoft's response to two major technological transitions.     

Macro-finance VARs and bond risk premia: A caveat

At the turn of the century, US and euro area long-term bond yields experienced a remarkable decline and remained at historically low levels despite rising short-term rates (the so called “conundrum”). Estimating macro-finance VARs and no-arbitrage term structure models, many researchers find that the decline in long-term rates was primarily driven by an unprecedented reduction in risk premia. I show that this result might be an artefact of the class of models employed to study the phenomenon.     

Food Beliefs: Elicitation,Estimation and Implications for Labeling Policy

We present a model in which consumers use product attributes (or labels) and their own beliefs to form expectations about the quality of a product. We use best–worst scaling to elicit beliefs, and study how information may influence these beliefs. In our ranking experiments, participants sort different milk products according to (perceived) nutritional or environmental quality, and we use the resulting choice data to recover beliefs econometrically. In a nutritional quality experiment, we measure how food labels (i.e. front‐of‐package, back‐of‐package and ratio of recommended to restricted nutrients) alter consumers’ beliefs, finding that truthful attribute information may sometimes mislead consumers. The discussion explains how similar experiments could be used to distinguish informative labels from marketing messages.     

Why are shareholders not paid to give up their voting privileges? Unique evidence from Italy

Dual-class share unifications have typically been argued to be beneficial for voting shareholders, who are usually compensated for the loss of their superior voting privileges. However, no covenants exist that make this compensation mandatory for voting shareholders. In this paper, we examine a subset of dual class share unifications from Italy where, in the main, voting shareholders are not offered any compensation in lieu of the loss of their superior voting rights. We present a simple model describing the conditions under which the controlling voting shareholder will choose not to offer compensation to minority voting shareholders as part of a share unification. Our empirical results support the model predictions.