Reform der Abstimmungsregeln und Inflationspräferenz im EZB-Rat

Die Reform der Abstimmungsregeln im EZB-Rat kann bei Aufnahme von neuen Mitgliedstaaten in die W?hrungsunion Auswirkungen auf die Geldpolitik haben. Welche Konsequenzen sind für die in einem solchen erweiterten Rat pr?ferierte Inflationsrate im Vergleich zum Status quo zu erwarten? Wie sind alternative Abstimmungsregeln zu beurteilen? Wie h?tten sich die Vorschl?ge für die elf bzw. derzeit zw?lf Euro-L?nder ausgewirkt, wenn sie bereits 1999 implementiert worden w?ren? * Der Autor dankt Prof. Dr. Roland Vaubel für die Anregung und Korrektur des Artikels.     

A Global Assessment of the Economic Effects of Export Taxes

This paper uses a new detailed global data set on export taxes at the HS6 level and the MIRAGE global Computable General Equilibrium model to assess the impact of export taxes on the world economy. We find that removing export taxes would have worldwide effects: the average export tax on global merchandise trade was 0.48 per cent in 2007, with the bulk of these taxes imposed on energy products. The removal of these taxes would increase global welfare by 0.23 per cent, a larger figure than expected gains from the Doha Round. Both developed and emerging economies, such as China and India, would gain from such policies even if they currently impose export taxes. Medium and small food‐importing countries without market power (such as the least‐developed countries) would also benefit from the elimination of export restrictions – especially during food crisis situations. Both the energy sector and the export taxes implemented by the Commonwealth of Independent States countries appear to play a critical role in the overall economic impact of such a policy change. However, the fact that some countries, such as Argentina, would experience income losses due to such a policy change is a major challenge to overall positive reform in this area.     

Maskin's Theorem with limited veto power

We weaken the no-veto power condition of Maskin [Maskin, E.,1999. Nash equilibrium and welfare optimality. Rev. Econ. Stud. 66, 23–38] to limited veto power, and prove that any monotonic social choice rule is Nash implementable if it satisfies this weaker condition. The result is obtained by using the canonical Maskin mechanism without modification. An immediate corollary is that the weak core is Nash implementable in any coalitional game environment. An example is given to show that the strong core need not be implementable, even when it is monotonic.     

Long run money demand in the EU: Evidence for area-wide aggregates

Long-run properties of EU-wide money aggregates are analysed. For each of the three aggregates considered-Currency, M1 and M3H-it is possible to obtain cointegrating relationships with GDP and interest rates (long or short term market interest rates). Results are not improved when traditional aggregates, obtained by aggregating existing national aggregates, are extended by the inclusion of various measures of Cross-Border Holdings. Specific attention is also paid to aggregation issues and the relative performance of area-wide and national equations. The results show that aggregation bias is not a major problem and that the relatively good area-wide performance is largely a consequence of a statistical averaging effect.gf.gfagan.hg.eunet.deBoth authors are in the Stage Three Division of the Monetary, Economics and Statistics Department of the European Monetary Institute. The authors would like to thank colleagues at the EMI and participants at an EMI conference on EU money demand, held in 1995, for helpful comments and suggestions. Comments received from participants in the 1997 Econometric Society European Meeting and in the Workshop on Money Demand at Berlin Humboldt Universität in 1997 are also gratefully acknowledged. The final version benefited from comments by the editors and two anonymous referees. Opinions expressed in the paper are only those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the EMI.     

Determinanten der Verweildauer in Arbeitslosigkeit in Deutschland

Die hohe und andauernde Arbeitslosigkeit geh?rt zu den dringendsten wirtschaftspolitischen Problemen in Deutschland. Ist die Fixierung auf die absolute H?he der Arbeitslosigkeit berechtigt? Welche Rolle spielen die Str?me und Bewegungen auf dem Arbeitsmarkt? Welches sind die Determinanten der Verweildauer in Arbeitslosigkeit?     

Regional unemployment and human capital in transition economies1

Differences in regional unemployment in post‐communist economies are large and persistent. We show that within‐country regional variation in inherited human capital in four such economies explains the bulk of regional variation in unemployment; we explore potential explanations. Our evidence suggests that internal skill‐biased migration and the flow of foreign direct investment are not working as adjustment mechanisms but rather help explain the lack of convergence in regional unemployment rates. Although this capital and labour mobility pattern is consistent with the presence of regional skill spillovers, we find little support for this hypothesis. Instead, the observed migration pattern appears to arise from different skill‐specific adjustments to regional shocks brought about in part by labour‐market institutions such as guaranteed welfare income.     

When does a developing country use new technologies?

We develop a model of optimal pattern of economic development that is first rooted in physical capital accumulation and then in technical progress. We study an economy where capital accumulation and innovative activity take place within a two sector model. The first sector produces a consumption good using physical capital and non skilled labor. Technological progress in the consumption sector is driven by the research activity that takes place in the second sector. Research activity which produces new technologies requires technological capital and skilled labor. New technologies induce an endogenous increase of the total factor productivity of the consumption sector. Physical and technological capital are not substitutable while skilled and non skilled labor may be substitutable. We show that under conditions about the adoption process of new technologies, the optimal strategy for a developing country consists in accumulating physical capital first; postponing the importation of technological capital to the second stage of development. This result is due to a threshold effect from which new technologies begin to have an impact on the productivity of the consumption sector. However, we show that once a certain level of wealth is reached, it becomes optimal for the economy to import technological capital to produce new technologies. The authors would like to thank the participants to the seminar of GREDEG, especially Richard Arena, Flora Bellone, Jean-Luc Gaffard and Jacques Ravix, and also the participants to a seminar at European University Institute. We are also grateful to the referees for their very thoughtful remarks and criticisms. Cuong Le Van started writing this joint paper with Olivier Bruno and Benoit Masquin in 2005, in GREDEG.     

French consumers' perceptions of the unattended delivery model for e-grocery retailing

A survey of 245 French e-grocery customers reveals their views on the unattended delivery model, including statistically significant differences across age groups but not between genders in terms of interest in unattended grocery delivery and intentions to buy groceries online. Some customer groups expect to adopt e-grocery if home delivery becomes possible, but their willingness to pay for delivery is low. Moreover, the analysis reveals that willingness to pay is not related to distance from the store, shopping duration, or shopping pleasure, such that could help grocers cover the costs. Thus French grocers will have difficulty moving to a complete e-commerce model.