New evidence on the first financial bubble

The Mississippi Bubble, South Sea Bubble and the Dutch Windhandel of 1720 together represent the world's first global financial bubble. We hand-collect cross-sectional price data and investor account data from 1720 to test theories about market bubbles. Our tests suggest that innovation was a key driver of bubble expectations. We present evidence against the currently prevailing debt-for-equity conversion hypothesis and relate stock returns to innovations in Atlantic trade and insurance. We find evidence consistent with the innovation-driven bubble dynamics documented by Pastor and Veronesi (2009) for new economy stocks. Our evidence seems inconsistent with clientele-based theories that emphasize bubble-riding and short-sales restrictions.     

On the compatibility of frequency constants,and on presumptive laws of error

Abstract

1. It is well known that the frequency distribution resulting from repetitions of an observation may be represented by a collection of rational, integral and symmetrical functions of the observations, the most frequently employed functions of this kind being the moments and the semi-invariants. Following the notation of Thiele ¹ we shall denote the rth moment about the origin by s_r , and the rth semi-invariant by µ^r.     

Does it pay to have friends? Social ties and executive appointments in banking

We exploit a unique sample to analyze how homophily (affinity for similar others) and social ties affect career outcomes in banking. We test if these factors increase the probability that the appointee to an executive board is an outsider without previous employment at the bank compared to being an insider. Homophily based on age and gender increase the chances of the outsider appointments. Similar educational backgrounds, in contrast, reduce the chance that the appointee is an outsider. Greater social ties also increase the probability of an outside appointment. Results from a duration model show that larger age differences shorten tenure significantly, whereas gender similarities barely affect tenure. Differences in educational backgrounds affect tenure differently across the banking sectors. Maintaining more contacts to the executive board reduces tenure. We also find weak evidence that social ties are associated with reduced profitability, consistent with cronyism in banking.     

The Real Effects of Financial Sector Interventions during Crises

We assess the importance of supply‐side credit market frictions by studying the impact of bank recapitalization on firm growth in 50 countries during the recent crisis. Our identification strategy exploits the crisis as a shock to credit supply and combines an exogenous measure of firms’ dependence on external financing with policy interventions aimed at restoring bank capital. We find that the growth of financially dependent firms is disproportionately positively affected by bank recapitalization. This effect is quantitatively important and robust to controlling for other policies. These results provide new evidence of the influence of credit market frictions on economic activity.     

Cost structure and capacity in the Norwegian pelagic fisheries

The parameters of the short-run cost function are estimated for three vessel types taking part in the Norwegian pelagic fisheries: purse seine vessels, trawlers, and coastal vessels. The generalized translog functional form is used. Estimates of returns to scale are calculated and the results indicate that there are substantial economies of scale in all vessel classes. It is further investigated whether excess capacity varies with vessel size and age. The analysis suggests increased quotas per vessel to avoid rent dissipation. With the total allowable catch given, the number of participating vessels must be reduced.     

A model for estimating fish population and optimal fishing effort in lakes and rivers

We developed a model for estimating the fish population for various species in lakes and rivers. Our estimation focuses, in its first step, on fish species that breed outside the lake. Using the annual outside supply of fingerlings, natural survival rate and reported amounts of fish caught, we estimated fish stock. Given the estimated stock for fish bred outside the lake, we can evaluate the catch rate. Assuming equal catch rates for other species, and given the amount caught for each species, we are able to evaluate each species stock. Using the proposed technique, we evaluated various species stocks in the Sea of Galilee (Lake Kinneret) in Israel. Using our suggested technique for evaluating fish stock, we calculated the optimal effort of fishing needed for maximizing steady state profit of the fishers.     

Competitive balance versus competitive intensity before a match: is one of these two concepts more relevant in explaining attendance? The case of the French football Ligue 1 over the period 2008–2011

The aim of this article is to investigate the determinants of attendance at French football Ligue 1 matches over the period 2008–2011 with an emphasis on examining the effects of both competitive balance and intensity before a match. Competitive balance is measured by the point difference between the two teams concerned by a match in the championship. Competitive intensity is measured by the point difference for the home team in relation to ranks with sporting stakes. Results show that competitive balance has an insignificant impact whereas competitive intensity has a significantly positive impact. Implications are drawn.     

Stock return reversal and continuance anomaly: new evidence from Hong Kong

Using weekly data, this article conducts a comprehensive analysis and presents new empirical evidences on the short-term stock return reversal and continuance anomaly in the Hong Kong stock market. We confirm that winner stocks behave differently from loser stocks in that the return reversal phenomenon is pervasive within past winner stocks only while past loser stocks tend to show weak return continuance. The arbitrage strategy can earn significantly positive contrarian profits, especially for small firms and illiquid stocks. The anomaly varies across different industries and is also sensitive to the market movement. Despite the existence of the anomaly, our results still in general suggest that the Hong Kong stock market is weak-form efficient because arbitrage trading costs would largely overwhelm the available profits in most cases.