A Multi-Agent View of Strategic Planning Using Group Support Systems and Artificial Intelligence

The strategic planning process is dynamic and complex. Including a Group Support System (GSS) in the problem-solving process can improve the content quality of the strategic plan by allowing increased participation by more members of the organization. However, it can also add to the complexity of the problem by increasing the quantity of textual information that can result from group activity. Added complexity increases cognitive overload and frustrations of those participants negotiating the contents of the strategic plan. This article takes a multi-agent view of the strategic planning process. It considers group participants as multiple agents concerned with the content quality of the strategic plan. The facilitator agent is responsible for guiding groups in the strategic plan construction process as well as for solving process problems such as cognitive overload. We introduce an AI Concept Categorizer agent, a software tool that supports the facilitator in addressing the process problem of cognitive overload associated with convergent group activities by synthesizing group textual output into conceptual clusters. The implementation of this tool reduces frustrations which groups encounter in the process of classifying textual output and provides more time for discussion of the concepts themselves. Because of the large amount of convergent activity necessary for strategic planning, the addition of the AI Concept Categorizer to the strategic planning process should increase the quality of the strategic plan and the buy-in of the participants in the strategic planning process.     

Job generation and new and small firms: Some evidence from the late 1980s

This paper adopts a components of employment change methodology and examines the process of job generation in the late 1980s for three contrasting regions of the United Kingdom. The emphasis in the analysis is on the contribution of new and small firms to regional manufacturing employment growth. The results indicate the important role of new and small indigenous firms in the job generation process, particularly in Northern Ireland, in the period 1986–90. However, the level of displacement associated with these job creations is sufficiently high to cause concern about the longterm sustainability of these trends. The paper concludes by arguing that policies designed to stimulate new firm formation and small firm growth are not in themselves sufficient to promote growth.     

Adam Smith's invisible hand argument

Adam Smith is usually thought to argue that the result of everyone pursuing their own interests will be the maximization of the interests of society. The invisible hand of the free market will transform the individual's pursuit of gain into the general utility of society. This is the invisible hand argument. Many people, although Smith did not, draw a moral corollary from this argument, and use it to defend the moral acceptability of pursuing one's own self-interest. Smith does use the invisible hand argument; however, a close reading of theWealth of Nations reveals that Smith thought the interests of merchants and manufacturers were fundamentally opposed to those of society in general, and that they had an inherent tendency to deceive and oppress society while pursuing their own interests. How can these two views of what results when merchants and manufactures pursue their self-interest be made compatible? It is argued that the invisible hand argument when applied to merchants and manufacturers, (its application to labour and landlords is only mentioned briefly), is extremely restrictive, and that similar restrictions must apply to the moral corollary. In particular, the invisible hand argument applies only to investing capital in one's own country for maximum profit.     

Social marketing to eliminate leprosy in Sri Lanka

Leprosy is a chronic infectious disease which, if untreated, can lead to permanent and progressive nerve damage and thus to deformities of the limbs, eyes, and face. People with leprosy have long been ostracized by society. The clinical signs of leprosy include insensitive skin lesions and thickened peripheral nerves. Untreated infectious leprosy cases are the main source of infection, transmitting the disease through nasal secretions. People with low cell-mediated immunity are at risk of developing clinically active leprosy irrespective of gender, age, or social class. The World Health Organization (WHO) has, since 1982, recommended multiple drug therapy (MDT) against leprosy, an approach capable of curing the disease within 1 year and interrupting its transmission. According to WHO, leprosy is currently a public health problem in 55 countries and more than 20% of the estimated 1.15 million cases of leprosy worldwide remain undetected. Although Sri Lanka was the first country in South Asia to provide MDT to all registered leprosy patients, first making it available in 1984, the disease continues to be transmitted due to the large number of undetected cases in the country. An ongoing social marketing program was therefore launched in 1990 by the local health ministry and the Novartis Foundation for Sustainable Development to eliminate leprosy from Sri Lanka. The program encourages people with suspicious skin lesions to seek diagnosis and care, teaches health care providers to recognize leprosy and refer cases for treatment, and helps the general public to understand that leprosy is just a normal disease. The socially marketed product is MDT, provided free-of-charge by the Novartis Foundation to all leprosy patients.     

Ethical aspects of “Japanese leadership style”

This article describes three characteristics of the Japanese Leadership Style (JLS): self-realization, appreciation of diverse abilities, and trust in others, which have both positive and negative ethical implications. In addition to illustrating how JLS allows Japanese corporations to avoid some of the ethical problems plaguing U.S. corporations, the authors will explain how these characteristics engender the loyalty and initiative of Japanese employees which promote incremental innovation and competitive advantages. Implicit in this discussion is the premise that both the American and Japanese business communities, by analyzing their own ethical issues and leadership styles, can learn from each other.Iwao Taka is a Visiting Research Fellow in the Department of Legal Studies at The Wharton School. He is an Assistant Professor in the International School of Economics and Business Administration, Reitaku University in Japan. His publications include Business Ethics: A Japanese View, Intuitive Decision-Making and Creative Destruction, and Japanese Entrepreneurship after World War II.Wanda D. Foglia, Esquire, is a Teaching Fellow in the Department of Legal Studies at The Wharton School where she is pursuing a Ph.D. in Criminology. A former Assistant District Attorney, her research focuses on approaches for promoting the individual's commitment to ethical and law-abiding behavior. She has recently coordinated a Project to Integrate Ethics Into the Wharton Undergraduate Curriculum.     

THE TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES AS A GAUSSIAN RANDOM FIELD

A simple model of the term structure of interest rates is introduced in which the family of instantaneous forward rates evolves as a continuous Gaussian random field. A necessary and sufficient condition for the associated family of discounted zero-coupon bond prices to be martingales is given, permitting the consistent pricing of interest rate contingent claims. Examples of the pricing of interest-rate caps and the situation when the Gaussian random field may be viewed as a deterministic time change of the standard Brownian sheet are discussed.     

Profiling exporting and nonexporting service firms: Critical differences to decision-makers

The internationalization of services has become a critical element in the global marketplace. While the internationalization of services has increased in importance, the lack of empirically based research has been a shortcoming. This article empirically examines key characteristics (i.e., total sales, number of employees, age of firm, management's desire to export, perceived profit potential from internationalization, top management's foreign language skills, and international work experience) separating exporting from nonexporting domestic-based service firms. It provides a profile for the exporting service firm that is distinctly different than that of the nonexporting service provider. These differences suggest important policy considerations for federal and state export promotion agencies and strategy considerations for service firm owners and management. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Can good marketing carry a bad product? Evidence from the motion picture industry

We examine the relative roles of marketing actions and product quality in determining commercial success. Using the motion picture context, in which product quality is difficult for consumers to anticipate and information on product success is available for different points in time, we model the effects of studio actions and movie quality on a movie’s sales during different phases of its theatrical run. For a sample of 331 recent motion pictures, structural equation modeling demonstrates that studio actions primarily influence early box office results, whereas movie quality influences both short- and long-term theatrical outcomes. The core results are robust across moderating conditions. We identify two data segments with follow-up latent class regressions and explore the degree of studio actions needed to “save” movies of varying quality. We finally offer some implications for research and management.     

ARBITRAGE BOUNDS FOR PRICES OF WEIGHTED VARIANCE SWAPS

We develop a theory of robust pricing and hedging of a weighted variance swap given market prices for a finite number of co‐maturing put options. We assume the put option prices do not admit arbitrage and deduce no‐arbitrage bounds on the weighted variance swap along with super‐ and sub‐replicating strategies that enforce them. We find that market quotes for variance swaps are surprisingly close to the model‐free lower bounds we determine. We solve the problem by transforming it into an analogous question for a European option with a convex payoff. The lower bound becomes a problem in semi‐infinite linear programming which we solve in detail. The upper bound is explicit. We work in a model‐independent and probability‐free setup. In particular, we use and extend Föllmer's pathwise stochastic calculus. Appropriate notions of arbitrage and admissibility are introduced. This allows us to establish the usual hedging relation between the variance swap and the “log contract” and similar connections for weighted variance swaps. Our results take the form of a FTAP: we show that the absence of (weak) arbitrage is equivalent to the existence of a classical model which reproduces the observed prices via risk‐neutral expectations of discounted payoffs.     

The Corporate Side of the Blogosphere: Examining the Variations of Design and Engagement Among Fortune 500 Blogs

Using design and communication principles, this study uses a content analysis design to evaluate all active blogs from the 2011 Fortune 500 list (n = 125). The results indicate that corporate America has only modestly incorporated the dialogic principles into their blogs. Current corporate blogs are well-designed as far as making them searchable and easy to navigate; however, the blogs are mostly being used to provide information in a one-way manner rather than creating an open dialogue with consumers. While blogging can enhance relationships with stakeholders, corporate communicators must strive to develop legitimate conversations with their blog readers.