Expectations and the Black Market Premium

The purpose of this paper is to gain a better understanding of the black market premium—the percentage differential between the black market and the official exchange rate. Tests are used to see whether the black market premium responds to variations in expectations about the official exchange rate in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico. Expectations of devaluation do cause movements in the black market premium for Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico but this behavior is not observed for Colombia. Colombian economic agents seem less sensitive to expected returns. This perhaps explains the relatively flat black market premium series observed for Colombia.     

The Association between the Legal and Financial Reporting Environments and Forecast Performance of Individual Analysts*

We test the ability of analyst characteristics to explain relative forecast accuracy across legal origins (common law versus civil law). Common‐law countries generally have more effective corporate governance mechanisms, including stronger investor protection laws and inputs provided through higher‐quality financial reporting systems. In this type of environment, we predict that analysts with superior ability and resources in common‐law countries will more consistently outperform their peers because appropriate market‐based incentives exist. In civil‐law countries, where the demand for earnings information is reduced because of weaker corporate governance mechanisms and lower‐quality financial reporting, we predict that analysts with superior ability will less consistently provide superior forecasts. Results are consistent with our expectations and suggest an association between legal and financial reporting environments and analysts' forecast behavior.     

Classical and technological convergence: beyond the Solow-Swan growth model

Recent investigations into cross-country convergence followMankiw, Romer, and Weil (1992) in using a log-linear approximationto the Swan-Solow growth model to specify regressions. Thesestudies tend to assume a common and exogenous technology. Incontrast, the technology catch-up literature endogenises thegrowth of technology. The use of capital stock data rendersthe approximations and over-identification of the Mankiw modelunnecessary and enables us, using dynamic panel estimation,to estimate the separate contributions of diminishing returnsand technology transfer to the rate of conditional convergence.We find that both effects are important.     

The Fable of the Keiretsu

Central to so many accounts of post-war Japan, the keiretsu corporate groups lacked economic substance from the start. Conceived by Marxists committed to locating "domination" by "monopoly capital," they found an early audience among western scholars searching for evidence of culture-specific group behavior in Japan. By the 1990s, they had moved into mainstream economic studies, and keiretsu dummies appeared in virtually all econometric regressions of Japanese industrial or financial structure. Yet the keiretsu began as a figment of the academic imagination, and they remain that today. Regardless of the keiretsu definition used, cross-shareholdings within the "groups" were trivial, even during the years when keiretsu ties were supposedly strongest. Neither does membership proxy for "main bank" ties. Econometric studies basing "keiretsu dummies" on the available rosters produce predictably haphazard and unstable results. In the end, the only reliably robust results are the artifacts of the sample biases created by the definitions themselves.     

Are CO2 Emission Levels Converging Among Industrial Countries?

Time paths of carbon dioxide emissions intwenty-one industrial countries are examinedfrom 1960–1997 to test for stochastic andconditional convergence. Both panel unit roottests and cross-section regressions areperformed. Overall, we find significantevidence that CO₂ emissions haveconverged.     

Purchasing Power Parity

The paper provides a selective and critical review of the literature on purchasing power parity and real exchange rates, with special reference to the literature of the last two decades.     

STRUCTURED OBSERVATION OF MANAGERIAL WORK: A REPLICATION AND SYNTHESIS*

This study uses structured observation categories to investigate the relationship between managerial behaviour, performance, and environmental and demographic variables. We found significant differences in managerial behaviour related to environmental and demographic variables but not to performance. Our replication and synthesis of other studies generally supports earlier conclusions regarding the brief, varied, fragmented and interpersonal nature of managerial work. The results also point to the important relationship between the environment and managerial behaviour. Implications for managerial practice and research are discussed.     

SeMS and sensibility: Security management systems and the management of risk in the Canadian Air Transport Security Authority

Following International Air Transportation Association requirement for all member airlines and airports to have a security management system (SeMS) beginning 1 March 2007, many organizations are looking to learn from safety and quality management systems. Without specific guidelines or best practices, organizations are forced to imitate these processes designed for different goals. Since safety, quality, and security environments operate on radically different principles, SeMS implementation must take a different tack. The case of the Canadian Air Transport Security Authority illustrates the importance of a custom-designed program that meets public and corporate needs. The Authority is responsible for security screening of passengers, non-passengers, and baggage within selected airports. As a crown corporation with a precise statutory mandate and regulatory environment, the development of a SeMS illustrates some of the key problems for the application of SeMS to larger organizations.