Methods for delivering complex social services: exploring adaptive management and regulation in the Australian National Disability Insurance Scheme

In the wake of new public management, and with the emergence of new public governance, a number of challenges remain unsolved in the field of public service governance and management. In this paper, we use the example of the Australian National Disability Insurance Scheme to show how we might deal with the design and implementation of a public service reform within the context of new public governance. We argue that governments need to develop greater openness to risk and policy experimentation during implementation. We therefore propose an adaptive system architecture that could support such risk taking.     

Urban Warfare Ecology: A Study of Water Supply in Basrah

This article assesses the impact of armed conflict on the drinking water service of Basrah from 1978 to 2013 through an ‘urban warfare ecology’ lens in order to draw out the implications for relief programming and relevance to urban studies. It interprets an extensive range of unpublished literature through a frame that incorporates the accumulation of direct and indirect impacts upon the hardware, consumables and people upon which urban services rely. The analysis attributes a step‐wise decline in service quality to the lack of water treatment chemicals, lack of spare parts, and, primarily, an extended ‘brain‐drain’ of qualified water service staff. The service is found to have been vulnerable to dependence upon foreign parts and people, ‘vicious cycles’ of impact, and the politics of aid and of reconstruction. It follows that practitioners and donors eschew ideas of relief–rehabilitation–development (RRD) for an appreciation of the needs particular to complex urban warfare biospheres, where armed conflict and sanctions permeate all aspects of service provision through altered biological and social processes. The urban warfare ecology lens is found to be a useful complement to ‘infrastructural warfare’ research, suggesting the study of protracted armed conflict upon all aspects of urban life be both deepened technically and broadened to other cases.     

Creating an Environment for Economic Growth: Creativity,Entrepreneurship or Human Capital?

Scholars and policymakers interested in the growth and prosperity of regions have long recognized that talent and knowledge are fundamental. Yet the question is what types of talent are needed in a growing twenty‐first‐century economy: human capital, creativity and innovation, or entrepreneurship? The latter we define broadly to include any type of risk taking, and not only radical innovation. The literature does not clearly point to one factor as being the most essential. This study assesses this question separately for rural and urban United States (US) counties. We find that human capital––measured by educational attainment––is considerably more conducive to employment growth than the share of creative occupations. Likewise, the share of small and medium businesses is also very conducive to local growth, although this does not apply to the self‐employment share. Rural and urban areas experience similar patterns, although the magnitude thereof tends to be larger for urban counties, whereas high‐technology employment share has had a positive effect in rural areas. Policy conclusions suggest that enhancing small business development and increasing educational attainment are the two strategies that are most likely to succeed.     

Asymmetric information as a barrier to knowledge spillovers in expert markets

This paper investigates barriers to effective knowledge spillovers for markets in which the product can be characterized as a credence good, i.e. its complexity impedes the evaluation of quality by customers both ex-ante and ex-post. We focus on the German market for energy efficiency consultants, as an emerging and subsidized sector in which the service offered has strong credence good properties. Based upon in-depth interviews with stakeholders, we analyze the determinants and barriers to knowledge spillovers. We find that the incentive to foster spillovers to increase suppliers’ knowledge is limited by the difficult commercialization of additional capabilities. The implementation of a public certification scheme has failed to increase the sectoral knowledge spillovers. By contrast, the participation in formal knowledge networks has been more effective in prompting companies to foster knowledge spillovers, which has also led to a higher degree of specialization. We conclude that access to certification schemes should be further restricted to increase market transparency and private networks should be supported to achieve the aim of increasing knowledge spillovers.     

Effects of limit order book information level on market stability metrics

Using an agent-based model of the limit order book, we explore how the levels of information available to participants, exchanges, and regulators can be used to improve our understanding of the stability and resiliency of a market. Ultimately, we want to know if electronic market data contains previously undetected information that could allow us to better assess market stability. Using data produced in the controlled environment of an agent-based model’s limit order book, we examine various resiliency indicators to determine their predictive capabilities. Most of the types of data created have traditionally been available either publicly or on a restricted basis to regulators and exchanges, but other types have never been collected. We confirmed our findings using actual order flow data with user identifications included from the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) and New York Mercantile Exchange. Our findings strongly suggest that high-fidelity microstructure data in combination with price data can be used to define stability indicators capable of reliably signaling a high likelihood for an imminent flash crash event about one minute before it occurs.     

The compliance model of employment standards enforcement: an evidence‐based assessment of its efficacy in instances of wage theft

This article critically assesses the compliance model of employment standards enforcement through a study of monetary employment standards violations in Ontario, Canada. The findings suggest that, in contexts where changes to the organisation of work deepen insecurity for employees, models of enforcement that emphasise compliance over deterrence are unlikely to effectively prevent or remedy employment standards violations.     

Detecting nonlinearity in time series by model selection criteria

This article analyzes the use of model selection criteria for detecting nonlinearity in the residuals of a linear model. Model selection criteria are applied for finding the order of the best autoregressive model fitted to the squared residuals of the linear model. If the order selected is not zero, this is considered as an indication of nonlinear behavior. The BIC and AIC criteria are compared to some popular nonlinearity tests in three Monte Carlo experiments. We conclude that the BIC model selection criterion seems to offer a promising tool for detecting nonlinearity in time series. An example is shown to illustrate the performance of the tests considered and the relationship between nonlinearity and structural changes in time series.