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981.
The existence of speculative bubbles in financial markets has been a longstanding issue under debate. Many financial economists believe that, given the assumption of rational expectations and rational behavior of economic agents, an asset should be priced according to its “market fundamentals.” Others argue that self‐fulfilling rumors of market participants can influence asset prices as well. These self‐fulfilling rumors are initiated by events extraneous to markets and are often called bubbles. The rationality of both expectations and behavior often does not imply that the price of an asset be equal to its fundamental value. In other words, there can be rational deviations of the price from this value—rational bubbles. A rational bubble can arise when the actual market price depends positively on its own expected rate of change, as normally occurs in asset markets. Since agents forming rational expectations do not make systematic prediction errors, the positive relationship between price and its expected rate of change implies a similar relationship between price and its actual rate of change. Under such conditions, the arbitrary, self‐fulfilling expectation of price changes may drive actual price changes independently of market fundamentals; we refer to such a situation as a rational price bubble.1 © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 21:79–108, 2001 相似文献
982.
983.
We present two studies investigating the impact of causal perceptions and the moral emotions of anger, shame, and guilt on the justification of deviant workplace behavior. Study 1 tests our conceptual framework using a sample of undergraduate business students; Study 2 examines a population of practicing physicians. Results varied significantly between the two samples, suggesting that individual and contextual factors play an important role in shaping the perceptual and emotional processes by which individuals form reactions to undesirable affective workplace events. Implications of these findings for the study of ethics, emotions, and attributions, as well as for promoting ethical behavior, are discussed. 相似文献
984.
As the likelihood of worldwide crises increases due to globalization and the resulting economic contagion, understanding why some multinational enterprises (MNEs) prevail in such environments becomes ever more critical. Drawing from the concept of dynamic managerial capabilities, we posit that MNE in-crisis performance is associated with the pre-crisis development of asset management capabilities, or the capacity of managers to orchestrate assets so as to extract more value from the firm’s resource pool. Specifically, we argue that because dynamic managerial capabilities evolve as a response to a firm’s task environment, MNEs that operate in dynamic industries develop stronger asset management capabilities. However, we also posit that whether these capabilities contribute to in-crisis performance is contingent upon the munificence of the industry environment in which the capability evolves. Asset management capabilities that evolve in munificent environments would encompass a wider spectrum of routine-altering activities, and thus increase the ability of the MNE to react to more revolutionary events, such as global economic crises. Conversely, asset management capabilities that evolve in resource-scarce environments will result in more strategic lock-in due to firms' constrained ability to experiment with novel resource configurations, resulting in poorer in-crisis performance. We test our hypotheses using a sample of 854 MNEs in the context of the global financial crisis of 2008, and find support for our hypotheses. We discuss implications for the dynamic capabilities view and MNE resilience. 相似文献
985.
Takeshi Kobayashi Mark M. Spiegel Nobuyoshi Yamori 《Journal of the Japanese and International Economies》2006,20(4):699-721
One of the primary motivations offered by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) for its quantitative easing program—whereby it maintained a current account balance target in excess of required reserves, effectively pegging short-term interest rates at zero—was to maintain credit extension by the troubled Japanese financial sector. We conduct an event study concerning the anticipated impact of quantitative easing on the Japanese banking sector by examining the impact of the introduction and expansion of the policy on Japanese bank equity values. We find that excess returns of Japanese banks were greater when increases in the BOJ current account balance target were accompanied by “non-standard” expansionary policies, such as raising the ceiling on BOJ purchases of long-term Japanese government bonds. We also provide cross-sectional evidence that suggests that the market perceived that the quantitative easing program would disproportionately benefit financially weaker Japanese banks. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (4) (2006) 699–721. 相似文献
986.
The organizational structure literature has long posited that increases in uncertainty should lead to organic (adaptable) structures [T. Burnes, G.M. Stalker, The Management of Innovation, Tavistock Publications, London, 1961]. Similarly, the operations management literature has focused on the importance of flexibility as a competitive weapon [e.g., [De Meyer et al., 1989] Strategic Manage. J. 10 (1989) 135], and as a response to environmental uncertainty [Manage. Sci. 33 (1987) 509; Manage. Sci. 39 (1993) 395]. However, our recent attempts to empirically validate a relationship between environmental uncertainty and operational flexibility in manufacturing plants have failed to show a significant relationship [J. Operations Manage. 3 (1999) 307]. The present research attempts to rectify these contradictory findings by replicating and extending the works of [Manage. Sci. 33 (1987) 509] as well as [J. Operations Manage. 3 (1999) 307]. The results find no support for the proposition that firms that respond to increased uncertainty with increased flexibility will experience increased performance. 相似文献
987.
In this paper the probability distribution of equilibrium outcomes is assumed to be a continuous but unknown function of agents' forecasts (which are probability measures). Agents start with a prior distribution on the set of mappings from forecasts into probabilities on outcomes. This induces an initial forecast. After observing the equilibrium outcome a posterior distribution is computed which induces a new forecast. The main result is that with probability one the forecasts converge to the set of fixed points of the unknown mapping. This can be interpreted as convergence to rational expectations. 相似文献
988.
David L. Tirschwell Mark Turner David Thaler James Choulerton David Marks John Carroll 《Journal of medical economics》2018,21(7):656-665
Objective: Compared to medical therapy alone, percutaneous closure of patent foramen ovale (PFO) further reduces risk of recurrent ischemic strokes in carefully selected young to middle-aged patients with a recent cryptogenic ischemic stroke. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of this therapy in the context of the United Kingdom (UK) healthcare system.Methods: A Markov cohort model consisting of four health states (Stable after index stroke, Post-Minor Recurrent Stroke, Post-Moderate Recurrent Stroke, and Death) was developed to simulate the economic outcomes of device-based PFO closure compared to medical therapy. Recurrent stroke event rates were extracted from a randomized clinical trial (RESPECT) with a median of 5.9-year follow-up. Health utilities and costs were obtained from published sources. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were performed to assess robustness. The model was discounted at 3.5% and reported in 2016 Pounds Sterling.Results: Compared with medical therapy alone and using a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of £20,000, PFO closure reached cost-effectiveness at 4.2 years. Cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) at 4, 10, and 20 years were ?20,951, ?6,887, and ?2,158, respectively. PFO closure was cost-effective for 89% of PSA iterations at year 10. Sensitivity analyses showed that the model was robust.Conclusions: Considering the UK healthcare system perspective, percutaneous PFO closure in cryptogenic ischemic stroke patients is a cost-effective stroke prevention strategy compared to medical therapy alone. Its cost-effectiveness was driven by substantial reduction in recurrent strokes and patients’ improved health-related quality-of-life. 相似文献
989.
We apply Stroock and Varadhan’s support theorem to show that there is a positive probability that within the Swap Market Model
the implied Libor rates become negative in finite time.
Mataix-Pastor received support from the Instituto Credito Oficial (ICO), Spain, and Fundación Caja Madrid. 相似文献
990.
We consider the problem of variable selection in linear regression models. Bayesian model averaging has become an important tool in empirical settings with large numbers of potential regressors and relatively limited numbers of observations. We examine the effect of a variety of prior assumptions on the inference concerning model size, posterior inclusion probabilities of regressors and on predictive performance. We illustrate these issues in the context of cross‐country growth regressions using three datasets with 41–67 potential drivers of growth and 72–93 observations. Finally, we recommend priors for use in this and related contexts. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献